Uncovering the Shocking Truth Behind the Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Domination

Here we are again, at that familiar crossroads: the Indiana Pacers have clawed their way past the Cavaliers and Knicks, stunning so many along the journey. But now? Well, they face what might just be the steepest mountain in their franchise history — pulling off a historic upset to snatch their first-ever NBA title. Honestly, is anyone really buying it? The sportsbooks sure aren’t, slapping the Oklahoma City Thunder with overwhelming favoritism, and our trusty projection model sings the same tune — a daunting 90.4% chance that the Thunder will clinch it. Yet, isn’t there always a little magic in the underdog’s fight? Before we count the Pacers out, let’s dive into the numbers, the narratives, and that irresistible question: can David truly topple Goliath on this grandest of stages? LEARN MORE.

The Pacers have been in this position before, knocking off the Cavaliers and Knicks to get here. But now they’ll have to pull off a historic upset to win their first NBA title.

Let’s be honest about it. Is anyone really giving the Indiana Pacers a shot?

No, we mean a real chance at winning the 2025 NBA Finals?

The sportsbooks certainly don’t seem to be, making the Oklahoma City Thunder a big favorite entering the championship series at -700 compared to the Pacers’ +500.

Our projection model has calculated a similar outlook, giving the Thunder an 90.4% probability of winning the franchise’s first title since 1978-79 when it was the Seattle SuperSonics.  

The model incorporates each team’s TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Competition and Roster), win-loss record and strength of schedule throughout the season to date and our supercomputer simulates the remaining schedule to produce our postseason predictions.

TRACR normalizes team performance based on how good a team is relative to league averages and is done with a model that uses advanced metrics and other factors to measure how many points per 100 possessions better or worse a team is than league average.

Of course, there’s a good reason for tabbing Oklahoma City a massive favorite. The Thunder (68-14) were the best team in the NBA for most, if not all, of the regular season and became only the second team since 1996-97 to finish with 68-plus wins (the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors were the other at 73-9).  

OKC was also the only team in the league to rank in the top four in both points per game (120.5; fourth) and points allowed per game (107.6; third). The team led the league with the fourth-best defensive TRACR we’ve recorded (see below) at minus-7.8, and was second in offensive TRACR in 2024-25 at plus-6.0.

And we haven’t even gotten to the fact the Thunder are led by the recently crowned NBA MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the regular-season scoring champion who also is averaging a league-high 29.8 points among those who have played at least six games in these playoffs.

The fourth-seeded Pacers (50-32) don’t have close to that kind of resume heading into Thursday’s Game 1 at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Though they sit seventh in both scoring (117.4) and offensive TRACR (3.2), the Pacers ranked just 17th in points allowed (115.1) during the regular season and 11th in defensive TRACR (-0.3).

Still, Indiana has been in this position before, knocking off the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers and third-seeded New York Knicks on the way to getting here. But now the Pacers will have to pull off a historic upset to win the first NBA title in franchise history.

All of this David vs. Goliath stuff has got us wondering where these NBA Finals rank among the biggest one-sided matchups across our historic TRACR era (since 1986-87).

What makes our historical TRACR model important is that it normalizes a team’s performance from league factors that can either inflate or deflate its numbers (think about the high-scoring ’80s compared to the low-scoring ’90s).

The 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, who set a league record at the time by going 72-10 before winning it all behind Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen and Dennis Rodman, have the highest TRACR we’ve recorded at 14.14.

What the model reveals now is that this Thunder versus Pacers clash is, indeed, the most one-sided matchup heading into an NBA Finals in the past 39 years – and it really isn’t close.

The Thunder own a 13.70 TRACR, which is the second-best mark for any team behind the previously mentioned Bulls. Of course, the ’96-97 Bulls fared well in the Finals, opening up a 3-0 series lead before finishing off Gary Payton, Shawn Kemp and the Sonics in Game 6.

The Pacers’ 3.60 TRACR, meanwhile, is the third lowest ahead of only the 2023 Miami Heat (2.27) and the 2018 Cleveland Cavaliers (0.88). That probably doesn’t bode well for Indiana: LeBron James and the 2018 Cavs were swept by the Golden State Warriors, and Jimmy Butler and the 2023 Heat lost to Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in five games.

The team with the lowest TRACR to win the NBA title was the 1994-95 Houston Rockets at 4.87. That “never underestimate the heart of a champion” team went 47-35 during the regular season before rolling to their second straight championship.

There’s more bad news for this year’s Pacers.

Teams with a 2.09 or more advantage in TRACR have gone 25-0 in the NBA Finals. So out of the 39 matchups during the historical TRACR era, we have to go all the way down to the 26th-largest differential to find a matchup in which the underdog won. That was LeBron, Kyrie Irving and the Cavs (8.44 TRACR) in 2016 when they stunned the 73-win Warriors (10.48).

Here are the most one-sided NBA Finals since 1986-87, according to our data model:

5. 2014 NBA Finals: San Antonio Spurs (10.98 TRACR) vs. Miami Heat (4.57)

• The Differential: 6.41
• The Result: San Antonio defeated Miami 4-1
• The Skinny: It was actually a pretty big shocker that the Spurs were able to dismantle LeBron, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and the Heat so easily. Led by an up-and-coming star named Kawhi Leonard, the Spurs won each of the last three games by 17 points or more.

4. 2018 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors (7.56) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (0.88)

• The Differential: 6.68
• The Result: Golden State defeated Cleveland 4-0
• The Skinny: In the last of four straight NBA Finals between Stephen Curry’s Warriors and LeBron James’ Cavs, Golden State rolled to its third win in the four championship-round matchups. Would the series have been different if J.R. Smith knew the score in Game 1? We’ll never know. James defected for the Los Angeles Lakers in free agency one month later.

3. 2024 NBA Finals: Boston Celtics (11.57) vs. Dallas Mavericks (4.73)

• The Differential: 6.84
• The Result: Boston defeated Dallas 4-1
• The Skinny: The Celtics won the 18th title in franchise history by cruising through Luka Doncic and the Mavericks. Led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Boston had been knocking at the door in previous seasons and finally broke through in 2024. At no point did it seem like the Mavs were going to beat them.

2. 2017 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors (12.82) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (5.96)

• The Differential: 6.86
• The Result: Golden State defeated Cleveland 4-1
• The Skinny: A year after what was the biggest upset according to our model, the Warriors made certain it wouldn’t happen again. They had added superstar Kevin Durant in the previous offseason to a lineup that already featured three All-Stars. The free-agent pickup proved his worth, claiming his first of back-to-back NBA Finals MVPs.

1. 2025 NBA Finals: Oklahoma City Thunder (13.70) vs. Indiana Pacers (3.50)

• The Differential: 10.20
• The Result: TBD
• The Skinny: No matter how you slice it, the Pacers will have their work cut out for them in this series as the biggest underdogs of the past 39 years by our model.

Will the 2025 NBA Finals go more than five games? If it does, it’ll be the first time among the five matchups with a TRACR differential of 6.15 or more to be extended that far. All of the previous series above were decided in four or five games.

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