Unexpected Clash: Can the Underdog Heels Tame the Fierce Wolfpack Tonight?

There’s an electric buzz swirling around the Lenovo Center this Tuesday night—because when NC State tips off against the North Carolina Tar Heels at 7 PM on ESPN, it’s more than just another ACC game. This isn’t merely a battle for standings or stats; it’s a clash steeped in history, pride, and fiery rivalry. Both teams are jockeying to prove their mettle, with the Wolfpack holding a solid 18-8 record and eyeing redemption after recent stumbles. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels, ranked AP #16, are packed with promising talent fresh off some intriguing roster moves. The numbers say it’s close—KenPom and Bart Torvik both forecast an 81-78 edge for NC State—but this game’s heart beats beyond analytics. This is the stage where legends are made, where every point scored or squandered carries weight. As the Wolfpack looks to break a two-game losing skid and silence doubters, the Tar Heels are equally hungry to reassert their dominance in a contest that’s as psychological as it is physical. The stakes? Oh, they couldn’t be higher. So gear up, because when these two collide, expect sparks, drama, and basketball that refuses to be ignored. LEARN MORE

When: Tuesday February 17 – 7:00 PM

Where: Lenovo Center

TV: ESPN

Opponent: North Carolina Tar Heels

Prediction – KenPom (KP) / Bart Torvik (BT): NC State 81-78 / NC State 81-78

Coach	Year	W/L	Score	H/A
Sloan	1966	L	78-79	A
Valvano	1980	L	70-73	A
Robinson	1990	W	97-91	H
Sendek	1996	L	56-59	A
Lowe	2006	W	83-79	H
Gottfried	2011	L	55-74	A
Keatts	2017	W	95-91	A

Team	PPG	PPG-OPP	FG%	3PT%	3PT-M	Reb	Ast	TO	ST	BL
NC State	85	74.4	47.8%	39.4%	10.6	35.1	16.3	9.7	8.4	3.2
UNC	81.8	70.4	47.6%	34.5%	8.7	38.8	16.8	9.3	5.7	3.5

Wolfpack Snapshot:

Record: 18-8, 9-4
Rankings: KP #31, BT #30
NET: 29 (Q1: 3-6, Q2: 9-1, Q3: 2-0, Q4: 4-1) – 5th highest NET in the ACC

Wolfpack Season So Far:

The season is generally going better than previous seasons, but the pattern is concerning:

Highly inconsistent. Won by 44 points, lost by 41 points.
Ven Lubin is the only consistent player on the team
Four home losses. Miami and Kansas both 76-77, GT by 4, UVA by 15
Second two game losing streak so far (Aub, Tex were the first)
Gave up late leads in both Miami & GT games

Notre Dame and Stanford are absolute must win games because the other three look formidable.

What’s On the Line?

The Tar Heels are ranked AP # 16 and NET #25, this is a Q1 contest. BUT NOBODY CARES ABOUT THAT! This is THE rivalry game. I’m certain AT LEAST 117 people told Coach Wade on his first day on the job, “Whatever else you do, beat Carolina.” NC State has lost two in a row since beating them for the ACC Championship. In the last game, the Wolfpack was down 28 at halftime. (at which time Coach Keatts’ FB status switched to ‘dead man walking’) Time for that RECKONING we’ve heard so much about.

Team	Q Rnk	(H / A)	KenPom	KP Prediction	NET
NC State		***	31	***	29
Duke	Q1	H	2	L, 78-71	2
UVA	Q1	A	20	L, 78-72	19
UNC	Q1	H	28	W, 81-78	25
Stanford	Q2	H	74	W, 82-72	70
ND	Q2	A	81	W, 79-74	87

Injury Report:

Injury Report (2/16): Out: Colt Langdon, Questionable: Scottie Ebube

Opponent Overview:

The baby blue faithful were a little itchy last season when the Tar Heels were relegated to the NCAA play-in game, which they won, and they then caught an early flight home after the round of 64. There was some whispered ‘hot seat’ rumbling before this season. Coach Hubert had to make some moves, and he did:

His freshman class includes Georgia’s Gatorade Player of the Year, 5-star, top 10 big man Caleb Wilson and thus far he has delivered and is in the NBA lottery conversation. Plus, quality 4-stars Derek Dixon and Isaiah Denis

Highlights from the portal were 4-star, top 30 target Estonian big man Henri Veesaar out of Alabama, Jonathan Powell out of WVU, Kyan Evans out of Colorado State, Jarin Stevenson out of Alabama, and Jaydon Young jumped from VT.

Like everyone else, he brought in an international pro player, Luka Bogavac from Montenegro.

And he held on to starting guard, Seth Trimble.

Opponent Snapshot:

Record: 20-5, 8-4
Rankings: KP #28, BT #25
NET: 25 (Q1: 5-5, Q2: 2-0, Q3: 8-0, Q4: 5-0) – 4th highest NET in the ACC

Their Season So Far:

Saturday, UNC played Pitt without Wilson or Veesaar and won by 14, 79-65. Shooting was nearly even. UNC was +5 on defensive boards, tied on offensive. The big difference was turnovers, Pitt had 12 to UNC’s 4, resulting in +8 points off turnovers for UNC. And – as is the way in Chapel Hill – 7 more fouls were called on Pitt, resulting in +8 points.

Good Wins	ACC – Wins	ACC – Wins	ACC – Losses
Kansas H +10	FSU H +13	GT A +16	SMU A -14
Kentucky A +3	Wake H +3	SYR H +10	Stan A -5
Ohio St N +1	ND H +22	Duke H +3	Cal A -6
	UVA A +5	Pitt H +14	Miami A -9

Player Notes:

Caleb Wilson: 4^th leading scorer in ACC play, 2^nd highest FG% in ACC play
Henri Veesaar: 3^rd leading rebounder in ACC play, 3^rd highest FG% in ACC play

Injury Report:

Injury Report (2/16): Out: Caleb Wilson, James Brown, Ivan Matlekovic, Questionable: Henri Veesaar, Probable: Isaiah Denis

Player	Class	Pos	Height	Weight	PPG	3PT%	3PTApg	REB	ASST	STL	BLK
Seth Trimble	SR	D	6’3″	200	13.9	32.60%	2.7	3.8	2.4	1.3	0.3
Luka Bogavac	JR	G	6’6″	215	9.8	34.5%	4.5	2.4	2.4	0.4	0
Jarin Stevenson	JR	F	6’10”	215	7.6	30.8%	2.6	3.6	0.9	0.6	0.5
Derek Dixon	FR	G	6’4″	200	5.6	37.8%	3.3	2.3	2.7	0.3	0
Zayden High	SO	F	6’10”	230	2.2	11.10%	0.4	1.8	0.4	0.3	0.1

What to watch for:

NCST – trends to watch
OFFENSE Needs to score 79 or more points – The Wake Forest game is an outlier, the Pack won scoring only 70 points. Otherwise, the Wolfpack scored 79 or more in every ACC win. (In ACC losses NC State scored 61 pts, 74 pts, 76 pts, 77 pts)
Q Needs Greater than 6 Assists – In the Miami, Louisville and UVA losses he had 5, 3, and 4 assists respectively, his 3 lowest assist totals in ACC play. Against Clemson, GT, and FSU he had 6 assists – we won 2, lost 1. Every other game he had at least 8.
NCST – record watch – McNeil has 81 made 3PT shots after 26 games. He’s averaging 3.1 per game, tracking for 96 in the regular season. DJ Horne’s record is 105 (88 reg. season, 17 post season)
Rebounding – “I think rebounding is the number one determining factor of an outcome of a game.“ Hubert Davis / Roy Williams / Matt Doherty / Bill Guthridge / Dean Smith / Frank McGuire ….
UNC – strengths – offense – 2^nd in ACC play in offense averaging 82.6 ppg, 5^th in FG%
UNC – weaknesses – defense – 11^th in ACC play in defense, allowing 77.9 ppg, 17^th in opponent allowed FG%, 18^th in opponent allowed 3PT%
UNC – strength – 2^nd in ACC play in assists
UNC – weaknesses – 12^th in ACC play in FT%, 13^th steals

Prediction:

Defense! UNC scored less than 70 points 3 times, losing 2 (Miami 66-75, MSU 58-74) and winning the Kentucky game 67-64.The Wolfpack hits the 79+ point goal and holds the Heels under 70. 80-69