Unexpected Texas Bet Shakes Odds, Turning Ohio State Into Shocking Home Underdog This Saturday

So, here we are — Week 1 of college football, and already someone at Circa Sports in Vegas is tossing down a staggering $550,000 on the No. 1 Texas Longhorns +1 against the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes at The Horseshoe. That bold bet flipped the script fast, nudging the market to make Texas a slight favorite over the reigning champs, despite Ohio State opening as 3-point favorites. It makes me wonder: is this just the hyped-up Arch Manning effect, or is the market seriously underestimating the Buckeyes’ resilience with a fresh QB and new coordinators in play? Texas boasts a top-tier defense and two ESPN preseason All-Americans back, but Ohio State? They’ve got home-field advantage, a history of crushing the ‘dogs, and a coaching staff that knows how to win big games. Intrigued yet? Because I sure am — this line movement might be overzealous, or it could be a sign of something special brewing in Columbus. Either way, this weekend’s clash could be a classic in the making — and I’m ready to see who cashes in. LEARN MORE.

Some bigshot at Circa Sports in Las Vegas bet $550,000 on the No. 1 Texas Longhorns +1 when they visit the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes Saturday at The Horseshoe for Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff game in Week 1 of college football. 

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This triggered Circa, a “market-making” sportsbook, to make UT a slight favorite at Ohio Stadium vs. the reigning national champion Buckeyes, and the rest of the market is starting to follow. This is kind of crazy, especially considering OSU opened as -3 favorites. 

But, I get it. In fact, I almost bet the Longhorns. Their quarterback and Heisman-betting-favorite, Arch Manning, is making his much-anticipated first start. In my opinion, Manning will validate his hype this season and be an upgrade from former QB Quinn Ewers, who led Texas to the 2025 College Football Playoff semifinals, which it lost to Ohio State 28-14. 

Furthermore, the Buckeyes have two new coordinators and a first-year starter under center (five-star QB Julian Sayin). They lost two 1,000-yard running backs (Quinshon Judkins and TreVeon Henderson), a star wide receiver (Emeka Egbuka), and two starting offensive linemen to the NFL, too. 

Meanwhile, the Longhorns return two ESPN first-team preseason All-Americans on defense, LB Anthony Hill Jr. and S Michael Taaffe. Plus, their sack leader from last season, pass rusher and five-star recruit Colin Simmons, is back. Hence, Texas will likely have a top-10 defense this year. 

However, this line has moved too far, and it’s “Ohio State or pass” for me, now. The last time OSU was a home underdog was against Michigan in 2018, and the Buckeyes pounded the Wolverines in The Game, 62-39. Granted, I don’t like Ohio State head coach Ryan Day as much as Urban Meyer. 

Yet, I trust Day a lot more in a big game than UT’s Steve Sarkisian, whose biggest accomplishment as a head coach was a 2023 Big XII championship. And maybe OSU’s new coordinators throw curveballs that Sarkisian and Texas aren’t ready for. After all, the Buckeyes have a higher talent composite score at 247Sports.com. 

Also, Ohio State is 101st in returning production, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, while Texas is 103rd. So, it’s not like this Longhorns team has achieved anything the Buckeyes haven’t. That said, this line movement is unwarranted. Or maybe it isn’t, and Texas and Manning blasts Ohio State in The Horseshoe Saturday. But I’ll pay to find out. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my college football 2025-26 bets here.