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Unlock the Hidden NFL Week 13 Betting Secrets That Could Transform Your Thanksgiving and Black Friday Wagers!
Ever find yourself burning the midnight oil, not for some high-stakes project, but because the NFL schedule just screams for early attention? Well, that was me—deep in the throes of Week 13 betting strategy at 1 a.m., wrestling with the chaos of three Thanksgiving games plus a grueling Black Friday lineup. Usually, I’m the guy who waits until the dust settles midweek, but this time I thought, why the heck not lock in all my picks early? Maybe it’s the sweet hum of a six-bet winning streak—I’m feeling invincible… or maybe just cocky enough to test the gambling gods with some bold calls. Between fading an overrated Eagles squad, backing hungry Bears, and trolling the market with contrarian vibes, I’m putting my chips where my mouth is. But can this hot streak hold, or am I just setting myself up for a classic jinx? Let’s dive in and see where the smart money’s landing this NFL Week 13. LEARN MORE.
Usually, I wait until later in the week before making my NFL bets. But I got in the lab earlier this week since there are three games Thanksgiving and another Black Friday. And at like 1 a.m. PT Wednesday, after looking at the Thanksgiving and Black Friday slate, I figured “Why not just find all of my picks for NFL Week 13?”
More importantly, I’m on a heater and I’m striking while the iron is hot. I’ve hit the last six NFL bets given out in the OutKick newsletter and have a seven-week winning streak in the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. I know writing that will jinx me. Kind of like how no one on a baseball team points out when a pitcher has a no-hitter. It’s just bad juju.
I’m so confident in how well I’m seeing the board lately that I’ll tempt the gambling gods with all that “win streak” talk. That said, here’s where I’m betting my money is for NFL Week 13. (Also, I’m using these as my five picks for this week in the Circa Million VII).
I’m fading the Eagles here, and it starts with how bad that 24-21 loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week actually was. Philly blew a 21-point lead and lost first downs 25-19 and yards per play 7.0 to 5.8. Philadelphia should’ve buried Dallas with that defense and Saquon Barkley. On top of that, everything went right for the Eagles, and they still lost.
Big picture: Philly’s offense just isn’t as good this season. The Eagles have only one win by more than eight points all year (New York Giants at home in Week 8). Offense is 3–4 times more predictive than defense, and Chicago’s offense is much more consistent. The Bears are 9th in offensive EPA per play (Eagles 15th) and 11th in success rate (Eagles 24th), per Sumer Sports.
The market still won’t upgrade Chicago. The preseason lookahead line was “Bears +7,” and it hasn’t changed even though both teams are 8-3 straight up and 7-4 against the spread (ATS). Chicago could also be getting cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon back. This is a play on the Bears and a fade of the overrated Eagles.
Speaking of “overrated,” Indy will fall back to the pack in the AFC South, and Houston could even run the Colts down to win the division. The Texans have a top-three defense in the NFL, and I’m not a believer in Indianapolis QB Daniel Jones. He took a combined 12 sacks vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons, and Houston has a fiercer pass-rush than those teams.
Also, the Texans have to be pumped after winning their last three games with backup QB Davis Mills. With first-string QB C.J. Stroud most likely returning for this game, the vibes in Houston’s locker room must be high. Ultimately, the Texans are a team trending up, the Colts have peaked, and this number is on the wrong side of “+3”.
I’m going into ultra-contrarian mode for this game. Here’s a list of the things I’m fading in Niners-Browns:
New Orleans closed as -1.5 home favorites vs. Atlanta, so the market is saying the Saints are 4.0 points better than the Jets on a neutral field. I’m calling, “Bullsh*t”. The Jets are bad, but they aren’t that bad. Per Sūmer Sports, NYJ is fifth in defensive success rate, and Jets QB Tyrod Taylor has one of the best ATS records in the NFL.
Lastly, both teams’ Week 12 results were misleading: The Falcons beat NOLA 24-10, and NYJ lost to the Baltimore Ravens 23-10. However, according to Pro Football Focus’s “noise-canceled score,” which looks at just raw efficiency and removes luck factors, Atlanta beat New Orleans 15-14, and the Jets only lost to Baltimore 18-16
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.
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