Unlock the Hidden Secret Behind the Story Everyone’s Talking About—You Won’t Believe What Happens Next!

There’s more bad news for this year’s Pacers.

Teams with a 2.09 or more advantage in TRACR have gone 25-0 in the NBA Finals. So out of the 39 matchups during the historical TRACR era, we have to go all the way down to the 26th-largest differential to find a matchup in which the underdog won. That was LeBron, Kyrie Irving and the Cavs (8.44 TRACR) in 2016 when they stunned the 73-win Warriors (10.48).

Here are the most one-sided NBA Finals since 1986-87, according to our data model:

5. 2014 NBA Finals: San Antonio Spurs (10.98 TRACR) vs. Miami Heat (4.57)

• The Differential: 6.41
• The Result: San Antonio defeated Miami 4-1
• The Skinny: It was actually a pretty big shocker that the Spurs were able to dismantle LeBron, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and the Heat so easily. Led by an up-and-coming star named Kawhi Leonard, the Spurs won each of the last three games by 17 points or more.

4. 2018 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors (7.56) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (0.88)

• The Differential: 6.68
• The Result: Golden State defeated Cleveland 4-0
• The Skinny: In the last of four straight NBA Finals between Stephen Curry’s Warriors and LeBron James’ Cavs, Golden State rolled to its third win in the four championship-round matchups. Would the series have been different if J.R. Smith knew the score in Game 1? We’ll never know. James defected for the Los Angeles Lakers in free agency one month later.

3. 2024 NBA Finals: Boston Celtics (11.57) vs. Dallas Mavericks (4.73)

• The Differential: 6.84
• The Result: Boston defeated Dallas 4-1
• The Skinny: The Celtics won the 18th title in franchise history by cruising through Luka Doncic and the Mavericks. Led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Boston had been knocking at the door in previous seasons and finally broke through in 2024. At no point did it seem like the Mavs were going to beat them.

2. 2017 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors (12.82) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (5.96)

• The Differential: 6.86
• The Result: Golden State defeated Cleveland 4-1
• The Skinny: A year after what was the biggest upset according to our model, the Warriors made certain it wouldn’t happen again. They had added superstar Kevin Durant in the previous offseason to a lineup that already featured three All-Stars. The free-agent pickup proved his worth, claiming his first of back-to-back NBA Finals MVPs.

1. 2025 NBA Finals: Oklahoma City Thunder (13.70) vs. Indiana Pacers (3.60)

• The Differential: 10.1
• The Result: TBD
• The Skinny: No matter how you slice it, the Pacers will have their work cut out for them in this series as the biggest underdogs of the past 39 years by our model.

Will the 2025 NBA Finals go more than five games? If it does, it’ll be the first time among the five matchups with a TRACR differential of 6.15 or more to be extended that far. All of the previous series above were decided in four or five games.

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