Unlock the Secret Twist Behind the Story Everyone’s Talking About!

As fantasy football shifts into high gear with the 2025 NFL playoffs looming, it’s tempting to stick with the pundits’ picks—but what if the data tells a different story? This Week 15 analysis dives beneath the surface, revealing surprising wins for backup quarterbacks, the undeniable reign of volume, and why your indoor players might just be your playoff heroes. Ever wondered if kickers could outscore top running backs or why tight ends continue to mystify even the savviest managers? Buckle up—this isn’t your usual start/sit guide. Let’s explore the twists and turns that could redefine your fantasy fate as we sprint towards 2026. LEARN MORE.

In our 2025 NFL Week 15 fantasy football start/sit analysis, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the experts’ picks.

For most leagues, we are entering the fantasy football playoffs.

So, while hopefully your team is still alive, this is a good time to look back throughout the season and find what lessons we can take with us to 2026 and beyond.

Here are five.

Backup Quarterbacks Are Not a Death Knell

Not always, anyway!

The Arizona Cardinals have been better with Jacoby Brissett at the helm. He’s sixth in the NFL in passing yards per game. Joe Flacco is seventh, and in his six starts with the Cincinnati Bengals this season, the Bengals averaged over 27 points per game.

Mac Jones went 5-3 in his eight starts with the San Francisco 49ers and averaged 269 passing yards per game, which would rank second if he hadn’t entered a couple of recent blowouts. Davis Mills went 3-0 for the Houston Texans, and in his three starts, Nico Collins had 28 targets.

Heck, even Tyrod Taylor led the New York Jets to 27 points in two of his four starts. As long as your backup quarterback isn’t Kirk Cousins or Max Brosmer, your offense has a chance even if the starter goes down.

Volume Remains King

The top 10 PPR running backs this season are Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, De’Von Achane, Bijan Robinson, James Cook, Javonte Williams, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams and Travis Etienne Jr.

Here’s where they rank, respectively, in offensive touches: first, second, eighth, tied for sixth, fourth, third, tied for sixth, ninth, 16th and 14th.

The top 10 PPR wide receivers are Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Puka Nacua, George Pickens, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams, Chris Olave, Nico Collins, Michael Pittman Jr. and A.J. Brown.

Here’s where they rank among qualified wide receivers, respectively, in targets per game this season: third, second, seventh, fifth, first, 13th, fourth, eighth, tied for 18th and 12th.

A strategy of drafting centered around players who might be in position to be a league-leader in opportunities seems simple. It also seems smart.

Playing Indoors (Or in Nice Weather) is a Big Advantage

We just listed the top 10 running backs and wide receivers. Take a peek at where those players play their home games. For the running backs, five of the top 10 play in domes, and three more play in California or Florida.

Drake London is WR11 this season. That means eight of the top 11 wide receivers play in domes. Smith-Njigba plays on the West Coast and three of his seven road games have been in domes.

A.J. Brown has played three indoor games. He’s averaging over 23 PPR points in those games. In his nine other games, he is averaging just over 12 PPR points. And, well, Ja’Marr Chase is awesome.

Kickers Are More Valuable Than Ever

Kickers are getting more and more opportunities than ever to try field goals from 50-plus yards out. There have been 134 field goals made from 50+, which is more than the entirety of the 2021 season.

And because of that, kickers are getting more and more valuable. Brandon Aubrey, Jason Myers and Cameron Dicker all have more than 140 fantasy points this season. Troy Franklin, who is the WR30, has exactly 140 PPR points. Only 23 running backs have more than 140 PPR points.

Why those benchmarks? Because the WR30 in average draft position (ADP) in 2025 was Travis Hunter. He was drafted, on average, 69th overall. The RB24 was Isiah Pacheco. He was drafted 60th overall.

Do with this information what you will, but don’t be surprised if the eighth round rolls around and someone reaches for a kicker. Oh, and Ka’imi Fairbairn is fourth among kickers. Aubrey, Dicker and Fairbairn were all top four kickers last season.

Tight end … Yikes

On the other end of the spectrum live the perpetually frustrating tight ends. This makes Trey McBride one of the most valuable players in fantasy, because he is incredible.

Besides him, Brock Bowers and Tucker Kraft are the only tight ends averaging more than 13.3 PPR points per game (Bowers has missed three games due to injury and Kraft played in just eight games before a season-ending injury).

Meanwhile, 10 tight ends are averaging between 10.1 and 13.1 PPR points per game. They range from Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta to Juwan Johnson and Hunter Henry. Kelce and LaPorta had ADPs of 63 and 52. Henry and Johnson had ADPs of 160 and 298(!!!).

The middle class of the tight end position has never been more jumbled, so if you don’t spend a premium pick on McBride or (maybe) Bowers next season, wait until the 10th round to take a dart throw.

Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Thursday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.

Week 15 Fantasy Football Start ’Em

QB Marcus Mariota, WAS vs. NYG (ECR: 13, Our Rank: 4, Projected Points: 17.18)

Having a quarterback who can run is fantasy football’s ultimate cheat code. Josh Allen, Jaxson Dart, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are the top eight quarterbacks in rushing yards per game.

Allen, Herbert, Mahomes, Hurts, Williams and Maye are all among the top eight quarterbacks in season-long fantasy points.

Enter Marcus Mariota. He is averaging 35.7 rushing yards per game in his six starts this season. That number would be second only to Allen. What does that mean? Well, despite only having one game with more than 215 passing yards, Mariota has averaged 18.4 PPR points per start.

The Giants played the Philadelphia Eagles all the way back in Week 6, in what was their best win of the year. In that game, Hurts scored a rushing touchdown. Including that week, over their last eight games, the Giants have played a smattering of mobile quarterbacks, including Hurts again, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. In those five games, the quarterbacks combined for 158 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

Especially with the Giants’ solid pass rush, expect Mariota’s mobility to play a key factor in this game. And that is good news for fantasy managers.

He’s easily a top-10 quarterback this week.

RB Javonte Williams, DAL vs. MIN (ECR: 13, Our Rank: 3, Projected Points: 19.90)

As we highlighted up top, Williams is tied for sixth in the NFL in touches. And they are evenly spread out. He has at least 17 touches in 10 of his 13 games.

For good reason, too. The only running back averaging more yards after contact per rush than Williams is Bijan Robinson, and the only running backs with at least 150 carries averaging more yards after contact than before contact are Williams and Quinshon Judkins.

On the other side of the field, the Minnesota Vikings have allowed a running back to score a touchdown in six of their last seven games. Relatedly, Williams is first among all running backs in projected rushing touchdowns this week.

He is an elite, top-three option in Week 15.

WR Christian Watson, GB vs. DEN (ECR: 29, Our Rank: 13, Projected Points: 13.78)

Usually, players like Watson who are almost singularly reliant on big plays to save a performance are not ranked highly by our projection model. Nor are wide receivers playing against the Denver Broncos.

But sometimes, the industry is lower on a player who isn’t in line for a heavy amount of work. It’s been the case with Alec Pierce at times this season, and the model is suggesting it’s the case with Watson this week.

Watson has been fantastic since returning from injury in Week 8. He has at least one catch of 25 yards or more in five of his seven games and he has five touchdowns in his last four games.

Watson has run 175 routes this season. Only Pierce has a higher depth of target and only Kayshon Boutte has a higher open percentage than Watson among all players with at least a 15-yard depth of target. It’s a scary matchup, but Watson only needs three catches to produce a fantasy-worthy day.

He’s a solid WR2 this week.

WR Adonai Mitchell, NYJ vs JAX (ECR: 37, Our Rank: 24, Projected Points: 11.61)

Among all those wide receivers with at least 175 routes, Mitchell’s depth of target (17.4) ranks fifth. Even more impressive? Here’s the entire list of wide receivers averaging more burn yards per route than Mitchell: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Drake London. That’s it.

Mitchell was traded to the New York Jets in Week 10. Over the first four games with his new team, Mitchell has 31 targets. This is a desperation play more than anything, but the Jaguars are merely a middle-of-the-pack defense when it comes to defending the deep ball.

And his projection is independent of the quarterback. If it’s Justin Fields, the Jets will throw the ball less, but his chance of a touchdown rises. If it’s Brady Cook, the Jets will likely throw the ball more, but efficiency might dwindle.

The model is betting here that in a game that’s likely to see the Jets need to throw the ball around a little bit, Mitchell can provide enough production to make him a worthy Flex play.

Week 15 Fantasy Football Sit ’Em

QB J.J. McCarthy, MIN vs. DAL (ECR: 17, Our Rank: 28, Projected Points: 10.45)

Stoppable force meets movable object, or something like that. That is what we have shaping up this week between McCarthy and the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys are 32nd, otherwise known as dead last, in passing yards allowed per game, and only the Bengals have allowed more points. The Cowboys have allowed six different quarterbacks to record at least 250 passing yards and two touchdowns, and that doesn’t include Bryce Young torching them for 199 yards and three touchdowns or Bo Nix’s four-touchdown, 247-yard performance.

McCarthy, meanwhile, has started seven games. He has only surpassed 165 passing yards once. His completion percentage on the season is 56.0%, which is not just the worst in the NFL, but is the fourth-worst mark by any quarterback since 2020 – just behind Anthony Richardson last season, and two Zach Wilson seasons.

Let’s just say that’s not the type of company you want to be keeping as a quarterback. Our bet’s on McCarthy being worse than the Cowboys. The matchup is great, but do you really want to trust McCarthy with your season on the line?

RB TreVeyon Henderson, NE vs. BUF (ECR: 14, Our Rank: 26, Projected Points: 11.26)

This one is actually quite simple. Henderson has played in three games this season without Rhamondre Stevenson. Five of his six touchdowns came during those three weeks, and Henderson was the RB3 during that stretch between Weeks 9 and 11.

Henderson has played 10 games with Stevenson. He has one touchdown and is averaging less than 50 scrimmage yards per game. When Henderson has full control of the backfield, he is an elite option. When Stevenson is available to partner with him, he has had only two games with more than the 11.26 PPR points our model is projecting him for.

This week, Henderson is a Flex play at best, alongside other running backs with major question marks like Devin Neal and Kenneth Gainwell.

WR Michael Wilson, ARI vs. HOU (ECR: 11, Our Rank: 29, Projected Points: 11.13)

We mentioned Jacoby Brissett earlier, and nobody has taken more advantage of Brissett’s gunslinger mode than Wilson. Over the last four weeks, Wilson has had a barely believable 56 targets. A.J. Brown has 46 targets, and no other player has more than 42.

There have only been 15 games all season in which a player has had at least 10 receptions and 115 receiving yards. Wilson has had three such games in the last four weeks. There should be no question why his ECR is 11th this week.

Well, just one bugaboo. His opponent in Week 15? The Houston Texans. Since their Week 4 shutout of the Tennessee Titans, only three quarterbacks have surpassed 200 yards against the Texans. They have 14 interceptions during that stretch and have only allowed nine passing TDs. Only five of them have gone to wide receivers. And well, our model likes the Texans.

Wilson is a tough start this week.

WR Chris Olave, NO vs. CAR (ECR: 13, Our Rank: 26, Projected Points: 11.39)

Olave has been one of the best and most underdiscussed wide receivers this season. He is fourth in the NFL in targets, and he’s WR7 through 14 weeks despite being drafted as WR35.

This week against the Carolina Panthers, however, the model is skeptical he’ll be able to produce like the low-end WR1 he’s been all season. Why? Because the Panthers have been surprisingly decent on defense, and particularly good against wide receivers.

They’ve only allowed five touchdowns to wide receivers over their last seven games – in part because the defense has held six of those quarterbacks to one or fewer passing touchdowns.

Most surprisingly? The Panthers are still very much in the hunt for a playoff spot. You could have won a lot of money betting on the Panthers’ playoff odds (46.2%) being almost 40% higher than the Chiefs’ playoff odds (6.4%) going into Week 15.

Didn’t see the names you were after? Be sure to check out our full fantasy football projections. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.

The post Week 15 Fantasy Football Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: All the Yays, Nays, Projections & Rankings appeared first on Opta Analyst.