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Ah, the NFL playoffs are upon us, and with the Super Wild Card Weekend just around the corner, the air is thick with anticipation — and a dash of chaos. We’re no longer stuck watching the likes of the Cardinals or Jets stumble through the season, but facing off with the league’s crème de la crème, all vying for that coveted Lombardi Trophy. You ever wonder how accurate those fancy algorithms and supercomputers really are when the gridiron gods love to shake things up? This year, the path to Santa Clara is wide open, yet unpredictability reigns supreme. Will the defending champs, the Eagles, soar as favorites? Or will underdogs like the Panthers pull off another shocking upset? One thing’s for sure, every game begs the question: what surprises lie in wait when the best of the best collide? Buckle up — the playoff hunt begins now. LEARN MORE
We provide one big question to track and reveal our model’s NFL playoff predictions for all six games of Super Wild Card Weekend.
Welcome to playoff football.
No longer do we have to see the likes of the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets on our TV, but over the next three weekends, we’ll watch the best of the best battle for a chance to play for the Lombardi Trophy.
And this year’s path to the Super Bowl in Santa Clara, California, is as wide open as ever.
In the NFC, the three teams with the best records all came out of the same division and the other three division winners who will be hosting games in this Super Wild Card Weekend all lost in Week 18 with playoff seedings – as well as a playoff berth in the case of the Carolina Panthers – on the line.
The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles opted to rest their starters in the regular-season finale instead of pushing for the conference’s No. 2 seed. And although they haven’t exactly looked overly dominant at times over the last month and a half, the Opta supercomputer still sees them as the favorites to come out of the NFC, predicting their likelihood of making the Super Bowl at 25.1% (as of Thursday).
The lone NFC participant who won’t be playing this weekend after clinching the conference’s top seed and the first-round bye, the Seattle Seahawks, have the next-best odds at 20.1%, followed by the Los Angeles Rams at 15.4% and the Green Bay Packers at 12.6% even though they enter the playoffs riding a four-game losing streak.
The second-seeded Chicago Bears aren’t far behind at 10.0% with the Carolina Panthers at 10.8% and the San Francisco 49ers – a team that could’ve clinched the conference’s top seed with a win in Week 18 – has the NFC’s lowest odds at 5.6%.
So, although our supercomputer has run its projections, it’s hard to predict anything after what we witnessed over the final few weeks of the regular season.
Let the playoffs begin.
NFC Playoff Predictions
Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Carolina Panthers (8-9)
- Saturday, Jan. 10, 4:30 p.m. ET
- Opta Analyst’s Win Probability: Rams 54.8%
- One Big Question: Can the Panthers again exploit the Rams’ defensive issues?
Of all the games on the Super Wild Card Weekend slate, this matchup appears to be the most one-sided.
The fifth-seeded Rams rank first in total points per game (30.5), yards per game (394.6), yards per play (6.18) and successful play percentage (57.4), while the Panthers are 27th in scoring (18.3), 27th in yards per game (295.6), 26th in yards per play (4.97) and 21st in successful play percentage (47.8).
At 12-5, Los Angeles also finished with four more victories than Carolina, which fell to 8-9 with a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Saturday and needed some outside help to win the NFC South.
Yep, no reason to watch as the Rams should win easily.
Except if you consider these same teams squared off on the same field six weeks ago, and Carolina stunned Los Angeles 31-28.
Back in Week 13, the Rams arrived in Charlotte boasting the NFC’s best record with Matthew Stafford the frontrunner in the MVP conversation. Playing as a heavy underdog, the Panthers intercepted Stafford twice to end the 37-year-old’s NFL record of 28 straight TD passes without an interception while strip-sacking him once.
Despite Stafford’s three-turnover day, Rams coach Sean McVay wasn’t overly concerned with the veteran quarterback’s rare sloppy performance on Carolina’s rain-soaked field.
A defense that was run over for 164 yards on the ground and allowed Bryce Young to pick them apart were much larger issues – and the Rams haven’t yet completely fixed those problems.
Following the loss to the Panthers, the Rams won three of their final five games – but two of those victories came against the woeful Cardinals. If we toss out those gimmies, Los Angeles gave up 34, 38 and 27 points in the other three contests, while permitting 460 rushing yards (an average of 5.90 yards per rush) and opposing quarterbacks recorded a 99.2 passer rating.
Young posted a career-best 147.1 QB rating against the Rams in Week 13, completing 15 of 20 passes for 206 yards with three touchdowns – including a go-ahead 43-yarder to rookie Tetairoa McMillan off a play-action pass with 6:34 remaining in the game. His other two TDs came on a 35-yard screen pass to Chuba Hubbard and a 33-yarder to Jalen Coker off a drop back on a 4th-and-3 on the Panthers’ first possession of the third quarter.
Carolina’s receivers had no trouble getting open against the Los Angeles secondary, registering a burn rate of 70.0% and Young had no problem finding them, throwing to an open receiver on 19 of his 20 passes, with four completions going for 20 or more yards.
The loss to the Panthers really exacerbated the Rams’ defensive woes. Through the first 12 weeks of the season, Los Angeles allowed 28 pass plays of 20 or more yards – tied for the fifth fewest in the NFL. But in six games since Week 13, the Rams were gashed for 25 such plays, with only the Baltimore Ravens (27) yielding more.
While the pressure will be on the Rams’ secondary, the good news for Los Angeles is that it has the firepower to light up the scoreboard if this game becomes a shootout. Stafford should also be getting one of his top playmakers back in Davante Adams, who has been sidelined with a hamstring injury since Week 15.
Despite missing the final three games, he still led the NFL with 14 touchdown receptions, with his last two coming against the Panthers.
Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6)
- Saturday, Jan. 10, 8 p.m. ET
- Opta Analyst’s Win Probability: Packers 51.9%
- One Big Question: Can Caleb and the Bears offense get in gear early?
For just the third time in history, the NFL’s oldest rivals will meet in a playoff game.
Theoretically, there should be plenty of familiarity between the Packers and Bears – especially seeing as these bitter rivals will be meeting for the third time in less than five weeks – but given how the first two games unfolded and how these teams have played in recent weeks, it’s hard to predict what will transpire at Soldier Field this weekend.
The Packers won Round 1 at Lambeau Field in Week 14, with Keisean Nixon intercepting Caleb Williams in the waning seconds to seal a 28-21 victory. The Bears then took the rematch in Week 16 in Chicago, winning 22-16 in overtime on Williams’ 46-yard touchdown pass to DJ Moore with Nixon in coverage to cap an improbable comeback.
The second-seeded Bears haven’t won since then. The No. 7 seed Packers, meanwhile, haven’t won since beating the Bears more than a month ago.
It’s no coincidence that victory marks the last full game Micah Parsons played, with the All-Pro edge rusher suffering a torn ACL the following Sunday.
Jordan Love then sustained a concussion against the Bears in Week 16 and subsequently sat out Green Bay’s final two regular-season games. Now Love is good to go, but it’s possible he shows a little rust since he hasn’t played since Dec. 20.
Williams has no excuse for looking rusty early on in games, but that’s been the case for much of the season. In the first two meetings, Williams struggled to get Ben Johnson’s offense in rhythm, resulting in just five first downs in the two first quarters and six of their eight first-half drives resulting in a punt.
The numbers between Williams and the Bears from the first half to after halftime in the first two games against the Packers are stark.
Yes, Williams and the Bears have had a knack for pulling off dramatic fourth-quarter comebacks, but that’s hardly a recipe for sustained success, especially in the playoffs.
Though Williams already faced the Packers once without Parsons and had trouble getting the offense on track, Green Bay’s defense looked a little shaky in its final two games in losses to a pair of backup quarterbacks in the Ravens’ Tyler Huntley and the Minnesota Vikings’ Max Brosmer.
The Packers have also permitted an average of 170.8 rushing yards per game and 4.84 yards per rush during their four-game skid, and that bodes well for a Bears team that ranks third in rushing offense (144.5 yards per game) behind D’Andre Swift and rookie Kyle Monangai.
With a chance of snow and a crosswind in the forecast for Saturday on Chicago’s lakefront, establishing the ground game early would go a long way in setting the tone for Williams and the offense in the final installment of the 2025 Bears-Packers trilogy.
San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
- Sunday, Jan. 11, 4:30 p.m. ET
- Opta Analyst’s Win Probability: Eagles 70.0%
- One Big Question: Can the Eagles contain CMC?
If history is any indication, one of these two teams will be taking the field on Feb. 8 in Santa Clara, seeing as each of the last three Super Bowls featured either the 49ers or Eagles representing the NFC.
But for now, they meet with a spot in the divisional round at stake.
The Eagles became the first team in two decades to win consecutive NFC East titles, allowing them to begin their Super Bowl title defense at home.
But it has been a turbulent season for the reigning Lombardi Trophy winners. They endured a three-game losing streak that crossed into December and their offense has struggled mightily at times.
The 49ers, meanwhile, don’t want to hear about the third-seeded Eagles’ woes after dealing with significant injuries to defensive stars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, as well as quarterback Brock Purdy.
San Francisco managed to overcome these obstacles and entered its season finale riding a six-game winning streak – including 37, 48 and 42 point-performances in Weeks 15-17.
With an opportunity to clinch the NFC’s top seed and the chance to play at home all the way through until the Super Bowl at their own Levi’s Stadium, the Niners mustered a season-low 173 yards in a 13-3 loss to the Seahawks, giving Seattle the No. 1 seed and dropping San Francisco to sixth.
At least Purdy didn’t get hurt.
Scratch that. He actually sustained a left shoulder injury on San Francisco’s final offensive play when he was smothered by a pair of Seattle defenders.
He will likely be playing with some pain this weekend, so look for Christian McCaffrey to be the focal point of the Niners’ offensive game plan, which is essentially what they do anyway.
McCaffrey’s 2,126 scrimmage yards were second only to the Atlanta Falcons’ Bijan Robinson’s 2,298, and his 413 offensive touches were the most by any player since 2014, when the Dallas Cowboys’ DeMarco Murray had 449.
It wasn’t easy, though, for McCaffrey.
His average of 3.86 yards per carry was his lowest since averaging 3.81 in an injury-plagued 2020 and his average of 2.26 yards before contact was the ninth lowest among the 33 running backs with at least 150 carries.
He kept defenses off balance with his ability to catch passes out of the backfield and this could pose problems for the Eagles.
Of his team-high 102 receptions, 38 came on quick-pass concepts from 45 targets, resulting in 323 yards with a burn rate of 60.0, which ranked fourth among the 28 running backs targeted at least 10 times on such plays.
The 49ers averaged 6.8 yards per pass on quick-strike throws to match the Pittsburgh Steelers for the highest in the NFL and achieved successful plays on a league-leading 54.8% of quick-pass concepts.
Although the Eagles allowed an NFL-low 4.1 yards per pass on quick-strike throws, McCaffrey presents problems as they struggled to cover running backs coming out of the backfield to catch passes. Opposing running backs averaged 10.1 yards per catch – the second highest in the NFL behind the Buccaneers at 10.9.
Production from their own running back is just one area where the Eagles had problems offensively this season.
Saquon Barkley’s 1,140 rushing yards were 864 fewer than a season ago as Philly ranked 23rd in average yards per rush at 4.16 – down from 4.91 in 2024.
With an ineffective ground game, the offense struggled to put up points, scoring fewer than 20 in six of nine games since Week 10. (Only the lowly Las Vegas Raiders had more such games over that span with eight.)
If McCaffrey and San Francisco’s offense can regroup and prove last week was just a minor hiccup, it might be able to leave Philadelphia with a win, considering the Eagles haven’t shown they’re able to consistently score points.
AFC Playoff Predictions
The time has come for someone new to rise to the top of the AFC. Over the previous seven seasons, the conference playoffs have been dominated by the Kansas City Chiefs.
They made seven straight appearances in the conference championship game and won the AFC five times, including in the last three seasons. But with KC watching the postseason from home this year, the door is wide open for another contender to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Will a perennial contender like the Buffalo Bills finally reach the promised land, or will an up-and-coming team like the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans or Jacksonville Jaguars make a breakthrough ahead of schedule?
We will get some answers when the postseason kicks off with wild-card weekend.
Buffalo Bills (12-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)
- Sunday, Jan. 11, 1 p.m. ET
- Opta Analyst’s Win Probability: Jaguars 58.0%
- One Big Question: Who will win the battle on the ground?
The first AFC playoff game of the weekend is perhaps the most evenly matched, with both oddsmakers and the Opta supercomputer expecting a close game, despite Jacksonville entering the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak.
Quarterbacks are always in the spotlight in the NFL, and this game is no different, with Josh Allen continuing his push to get Buffalo back to a Super Bowl and Trevor Lawrence having a career renaissance under first-year head coach Liam Cohen.
But Sunday’s opening wild-card game may very well be determined by which team is more successful at running the ball, and no one has more polarized run-pass splits than the Bills, who love to run the ball on offense and consistently get gashed by the run on defense.
James Cook III rushed for an NFL-leading 1,621 yards this season and had 12 rushing touchdowns. His 309 carries were the third most in the NFL, and it’s no surprise given Buffalo called a designed run a league-leading 64.0% of the time on 1st-and-10.
While Cook has been excellent for Buffalo, Josh Allen’s versatility takes the Bills’ rushing attack to another level, with the quarterback adding 579 yards, 46 first downs and 14 touchdowns on the ground this season.
As good as Buffalo’s rushing attack has been, it will be tested by a Jaguars defense that allowed an NFL-low 85.6 rushing yards per game.
However, the Jaguars played nearly 570 minutes with the lead this season, the third most in the league, with opponents calling run plays on an NFL-low 33.7% of second-half snaps against Jacksonville.
The Jaguars’ 3.94 yards allowed per carry ranked fifth and their run success rate allowed of 39.1% ranked seventh. So while Jacksonville’s run defense may be better categorized as “good” than “great,” it will play a key role on Sunday.
The Bills haven’t been good at stopping the run, however. They ranked 28th by allowing 2,315 rushing yards and the four teams that allowed more rushing yards than Buffalo had a combined record of 18-50.
The Bills appear to be the only team to succeed despite an extremely leaky ground defense.
Buffalo has allowed 200 or more rushing yards a league-high four times in 2025, but it has gone 3-1 in those games. The rest of the NFL is a combined 2-29 when allowing at least 200 yards on the ground.
Overall, the Jags have been right about league average on the ground, with a rushing success rate of 41.5%. Their rushing explosive rate of 2.6%, however, ranks 29th, and the numbers have been trending in the wrong direction.
Over their last six games, the Jaguars have averaged 91.2 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per rush. To exploit the weaknesses in Buffalo’s defense, they’ll have to do better than that to advance to the divisional round.
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at New England Patriots (14-3)
- Sunday, Jan. 11, 8 p.m. ET
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Patriots 58.2%
- One Big Question: Can the Chargers defend Drake Maye’s deep ball?
One year can make quite a difference. A year ago, the New England Patriots had just completed their second consecutive 4-13 season.
After a 10-win improvement this season, the Patriots won their first division title since 2019 and are set to host a playoff game in prime time.
Given the leap in the standings, Mike Vrabel is among the favorites to be voted the NFL’s Coach of the Year, but it never hurts to have your quarterback turn himself into an MVP candidate, either.
Drake Maye’s jump from an 88.1 passer rating in 2024 to 113.5 this season (a plus-25.4 increase) is the largest one-year jump in the league over the last five seasons, and he has improved in nearly every statistical category.
Maye threw 31 touchdown passes in 2025 after having just 15 last season, and he cut his interceptions from 10 to eight, despite throwing way more passes this year. Adding 450 yards and four scores on the ground has been impressive as well.
But what has made Maye’s play special this season is his balance between taking high-percentage throws and looking for big plays downfield.
Most quarterbacks are forced to choose between the safety of completions underneath with the upside of taking shots deep downfield. Maye, however, has reaped the rewards of both strategies in perfect balance.
Maye’s 72.0% completion rate is the best in the NFL and his 1.6% interception rate is among the 10 lowest among qualified quarterbacks. But he has also generated big plays.
Maye’s 36 completions of 25 or more yards rank fifth in the NFL and his 9.11 air yards per attempt rank sixth among quarterbacks with at least 150 adjusted attempts. The result has been the Patriots boasting an elite deep passing game without having any top-tier receiver talent.
Sunday’s matchup could present some challenges, however, as the Chargers have one of the stingiest defenses against deep passes.
Los Angeles has allowed a passer rating of 69.8 on attempts over 20 yards downfield, ranking seventh in the NFL, and opponents are completing just 28.6% of passes over 20 yards downfield, ranking third.
The Chargers have had to deal with several injuries offensively, especially up front, so they’ll likely need a big game from their defense to advance on Sunday.
Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
- Monday, Jan. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Steelers 50.9%
- One Big Question: Can the Texans get pressure on Aaron Rodgers?
The Monday night finale to the six-game wild-card slate features the league’s elder statesman, Aaron Rodgers, leading the Steelers against the red-hot, defensive-minded Texans.
Houston enters the playoffs riding a nine-game winning streak, despite some lingering questions on offense. The team ranks 28th in the league with a 39.3% overall success rate and comes in well below average in both passing and rushing success rate.
The Texans, however, will go as far as their dominant defense can take them after allowing an NFL-low 277.2 yards per game in the regular season.
One signature feature of Houston’s fearsome defense is perhaps the best edge-rusher duo in the NFL. Danielle Hunter recorded 15 sacks and forced three fumbles, while Will Anderson Jr. had 12 sacks and forced three fumbles of his own.
Even beyond the traditional statistics, Hunter and Anderson have bothered quarterbacks all season. Anderson ranks third in the NFL with 92 quarterback pressures this season, while Hunter ranks fifth with 85 pressures.
That kind of relentless pass rush will place a heavy burden on the Steelers’ young tackles, Dylan Cook and Troy Fautanu. And avoiding pressure has been key to Pittsburgh’s offense.
The Steelers rank among the top five in frequency of calling both screen passes and quick passes to get the ball out of Rodgers’ hands. As a result, the Steelers have by far the lowest pressure rate allowed in the league at 33.4%.
On third downs, however, their pressure rate allowed jumps to 43.4%, and the Steelers will almost certainly need to convert a few 3rd-and-longs against an elite defense.
When throwing from a clean pocket, Rodgers has an 87.7% well-thrown rate, above the league average on non-pressure throws of 85.4%.
When pressured, however, only 69.4% of Rodgers’ attempts are considered well-thrown, ranking 37th out of 42 qualified quarterbacks this season.
If Pittsburgh hopes to pick up key first downs against Houston’s formidable defense, the offensive line will have to keep Hunter and Anderson far away from Rodgers.
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The post NFL Playoff Predictions: Who Will Advance Out of Super Wild Card Weekend? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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