Unlock the Secret Twist Behind the Story You Thought You Knew
Ever wonder if there’s a crystal ball powerful enough to cut through the chaos of the NFL season and spit out some cold, hard truths? Enter the Opta supercomputer—our steadfast companion on this wild 2025 NFL ride—grinding through mountains of data to serve up win probabilities for every single game. As we charge into Week 12, the numbers reveal some intriguing front-runners and underdogs, from the Philly Eagles leading the NFC pack to the surprisingly slim chances of a Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl encore. Sure, these aren’t your typical point spread picks but pure, unfiltered probabilities that shift week to week as injuries and surprises shake up the landscape. Whether you’re a diehard fan or just reasonably curious, this is your go-to for seeing who’s got the edge before kickoff—and who’s just hoping to defy the odds. Curious to see who’s flying high and who’s fumbling on the field? Dive in and let the supercomputer do the talking!
With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.
The Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way this season, providing data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.
As of Tuesday heading into Week 12, the Philadelphia Eagles (28.9%), Green Bay Packers (16.7%), Los Angeles Rams (15.2%), Detroit Lions (11.1%) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8.1%) are the most likely to win the NFC, followed by the Chicago Bears (5.4%).
The New England Patriots (25.9%), Denver Broncos (21.4%), Indianapolis Colts (11.1%), Buffalo Bills (9.7%), Pittsburgh Steelers (7.1%) and Los Angeles Chargers (5.9%) have the highest probabilities of winning the AFC.
Where are the Kansas City Chiefs, who have fallen to 5-5? They are down to just a 3.6% probability of returning to the Super Bowl.
For all the matchups, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through the Opta supercomputer and received our win probabilities. It’s important to note they’re straight-up win probabilities and not picks against the point spread.
Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). And there’s always a small chance of a tie (we had the league’s first draw since 2022 earlier this season).
So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks. You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.
Thursday Night Football Prediction
Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Houston Texans (5-5)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bills 63.4%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Bills -6.0 (as of Tuesday)
- Regular Season Meetings Since 1970 Merger: Texans 6-5
- Last Meeting: Texans 23, Bills 20 (Oct. 6, 2024)
Sunday’s Predictions
New York Jets (2-8) at Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ravens 85.3%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Ravens -13.5
- Regular Season Meetings Since 1970: Ravens 10-2
- Last Meeting: Ravens 24, Jets 9 (Sept. 11, 2022)
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Chicago Bears (7-3)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bears 61.1%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Bears -3.0
- Regular Season Meetings Since 1970: Bears 7-6
- Last Meeting: Steelers 29, Bears 27 (Nov. 8, 2021)
New England Patriots (9-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-7)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Patriots 69.5%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Patriots -8.5
- Regular Season Meetings Since 1970: Patriots 16-10
- Last Meeting: Patriots 16, Bengals 10 (Sept. 8, 2024)
New York Giants (2-9) at Detroit Lions (6-4)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Lions 81.1%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Lions -10.5
- Regular Season Meetings Since 1970: Giants 12-10
- Last Meeting: Lions 31, Giants 18 (Nov. 20, 2022)
Minnesota Vikings (4-6) at Green Bay Packers (6-3-1)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Packers 70.2%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Packers -6.5
- Regular Season Meetings Since 1970: Packers 54-52-3
- Last Meeting: Vikings 27, Packers 25 (Dec. 29, 2024)
Indianapolis Colts (8-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Chiefs 62.2%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Chiefs -3.5
- Regular Season Meetings Since 1970: Colts 14-9
- Last Meeting: Colts 20, Chiefs 17 (Sept. 25, 2022)
Seattle Seahawks (7-3) at Tennessee Titans (1-9)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Seahawks 78.6%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Seahawks -13.5
- Regular Season Meetings Since 1970: Seahawks 11-7
- Last Meeting: Seahawks 20, Titans 17 (Dec. 24, 2023)
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-7)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Jaguars 54.6%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Jaguars -2.5
- Regular Season Meetings Since 1970: Cardinals 4-2
- Last Meeting: Cardinals 31, Jaguars 19 (Sept. 26, 2021)
Cleveland Browns (2-8) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-8)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Raiders 61.3%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Raiders -3.0
- Regular Season Meetings Since 1970: Raiders 16-10
- Last Meeting: Raiders 20, Browns 16 (Sept. 29, 2024)
Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Eagles 57.4%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Eagles -3.5
- Regular Season Meetings Since 1970: Cowboys 62-48
- Last Meeting: Eagles 24, Cowboys 20 (Sept. 4, 2025)
Atlanta Falcons (3-7) at New Orleans Saints (2-8)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Saints 54.3%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Saints -1.5
- Regular Season Meetings Since 1970: Saints 55-54
- Last Meeting: Saints 20, Falcons 17 (Nov. 10, 2024)
Sunday Night Football Prediction
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4) at Los Angeles Rams (8-2)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Rams 71.4%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Rams -6.5
- Regular Season Meetings Since 1970: Rams 16-10
- Last Meeting: Buccaneers 16, Rams 13 (Nov. 6, 2022)
Monday Night Football Prediction
Carolina Panthers (6-5) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: 49ers 71.0%
- DraftKings Point Spread: 49ers -7.0
- Regular Season Meetings Since 1970: Panthers 13-9
- Last Meeting: 49ers 37, Panthers 15 (Oct. 9, 2022)
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post NFL Week 12 Predictions: Picks, Odds and Insights for Every Game appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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