![Unlock the Secret Twist in [Article Title] That Everyone’s Missing](https://gameonbrain.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/unlock-the-secret-twist-in-article-title-that-everyones-missing-150x150.jpg)
Unlock the Secret Twist in [Article Title] That Everyone’s Missing
![Unlock the Secret Twist in [Article Title] That Everyone’s Missing](https://gameonbrain.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/unlock-the-secret-twist-in-article-title-that-everyones-missing.jpg)
Can Jacksonville really be the NFL’s latest Cinderella story, or is their thrilling upset over the 49ers just a mirage on the horizon? After all, pulling off a shocker in hostile territory is one thing — but backing that up with a Monday Night triumph against a powerhouse like Kansas City? That’s a declaration shouted loud enough for everyone in the league to hear. With the Chiefs favored by the numbers and an eight-game winning streak over the Jaguars hanging in the background, Monday’s clash isn’t just another game — it’s a potential changing of the guard or a reaffirmation of the old order. So, will Jacksonville’s rising star blaze through the Chiefs’ fortress, or will Kansas City remind everyone why they’re still kings of the AFC? Let’s break down the story behind the stats and the stakes that make this showdown must-watch. LEARN MORE.
Jacksonville may have made believers out of some with a road victory over the 49ers. But another win in Week 5 in front of a Monday Night audience against Kansas City would likely put the rest of the NFL on notice.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars: The Key Stats
- The Kansas City Chiefs are favored to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars, winning 57.9% of pre-game simulations by the Opta supercomputer (as of Sunday).
- The Chiefs have won eight straight games over the Jaguars – the second-longest active win streak by one team over another behind the Dallas Cowboys’ nine straight wins over the New York Giants.
- The Jaguars’ Travis Etienne averages 3.13 yards after contact – the best in the NFL among the 32 running backs with more than 35 carries.
Over the last eight seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars have been on the opposite end of the NFL landscape.
One team has appeared in every AFC championship game played over that span and owns three Super Bowl titles, while the other has endured five seasons with double-digit losses and a single playoff victory.
While these franchises haven’t had much in common over the last several seasons, they may find themselves at a crossroads on Monday Night Football in Jacksonville.
The Opta supercomputer predicts (as of Sunday) the Jaguars will finish with 11.4 wins and gives them a 91.6% chance of making the playoffs. Among AFC teams, only the Buffalo Bills have better projections with 12.5 victories and a 98.8% playoff probability.
While it may be surprising to see Jacksonville at 3-1 with postseason aspirations after a four-win 2024 season, our supercomputer has long been a Jaguars apologist, calculating their win total at 10.5 and playoff odds at 75.1% before Week 1.
They likely made believers out of some doubters this past weekend with a 26-21 road victory over the previously unbeaten San Francisco 49ers. But another win in Week 5 in front of a Monday night audience against a team that has also given them problems – not to mention is coming off an encouraging win of its own – would likely put the rest of the NFL on notice.
Jaguars’ Key to Victory vs. Chiefs
The Jaguars find themselves tied with the Indianapolis Colts atop the AFC South thanks to an opportunistic defense that has forced at least three turnovers in each of its first four games and leads the NFL with 13 takeaways – four more than the Jags had the entire 2024 season.
The Jaguars defense is regularly giving the ball back to Trevor Lawrence and company, and that’s been a godsend given the offensive struggles. Jacksonville has scored five touchdowns on its 13 possessions following a turnover, or 38.5% of the time. On its other 33 possessions? Just four touchdowns – a 12.1 TD rate. The NFL average for touchdown efficiency is 23.0.
Lawrence has career lows in completion percentage (58.3) and yards per attempt (5.9), ranking 31st and 28th in the NFL, but it’s not entirely his fault.
Jacksonville already has 12 dropped passes – three more than any other team – with dynamic receiver Brian Thomas responsible for an NFL-worst four drops and Dyami Brown on the hook for three.
While the passing game is still a work in progress under first-year coach Liam Coen, the ground game behind Travis Etienne has been the motor of the offense. Jacksonville ranks fourth in rushing yards at 144.0 per game – an improvement of 42.3 yards from 2024 – and has been doing most of its damage right up the middle.
The Jaguars’ 46 inside zone runs are the fifth most in the NFL, and when they run it out of 122 personnel, they’re pretty much unstoppable, gaining a league-leading 7.4 yards per play.
Etienne has run 26 times on inside zone concepts, averaging 6.50 yards on those plays – the highest among all backs with a minimum of 15 carries on such play calls – compared to an average of 5.77 yards on all other running plays.
When running out of the 122 set, however, Etienne and the Jaguars have enjoyed even more success, nearly gaining enough for a first down with each run, as he’s rushing for an average of 9.04 yards on those 23 plays – far and away the best among the 31 running backs with at least 12 such carries.
(minimum 12 carries)
All of this poses some problems for Kansas City, which is struggling to stop teams when they run out of 122 personnel.
When opponents are in that set, the Chiefs are yielding successful running plays 51.2% of the time – the league’s second-highest rate – and are permitting an average of 5.6 yards per rush. The NFL average is 4.1.
Last weekend against another physical running team in the Baltimore Ravens, Derrick Henry averaged 5.43 yards on his seven carries out of 122 personnel, while Justice Hill went almost untouched on his way to a 71-yard touchdown on a run in the same formation.
Overall, Kansas City was gashed by Baltimore on the ground to the tune of 9.76 yards per rush – the highest by a KC opponent since the Philadelphia Eagles averaged 9.78 in Week 3 of 2013.
Replicating that kind of production seems a tad unlikely, but with Etienne in the backfield and with the way the offensive line is blocking, Jacksonville certainly has the personnel and a game plan to bulldoze the Kansas City defense.
Chiefs’ Key to Victory vs. Jaguars
After slogging through the first three weeks with point totals of 21, 17 and 22, Kansas City evoked memories of the days of old – or at least 2023 – with last Sunday’s impressive 37-20 win over the visiting Ravens, scoring its most points since a 41-10 dismantling of the Chicago Bears in Week 3 of 2023.
In improving to 2-2, the Chiefs scored on seven of their first eight possessions – the only non-scoring drive being a Harrison Butker missed field goal – and Patrick Mahomes threw for four touchdowns without an interception for a 124.8 passer rating after totaling three TDs with a pick and an 83.4 rating in his first three games.
Kansas City’s offense didn’t look much different last Sunday compared to the first three weeks. It lined up in 113 personnel 56.7% of the time (55.6% in Weeks 1-3), 112 personnel 32.8% of the time (33.9%), had Mahomes in shotgun 78.6% of the time (79.7%) and 47.2% of his passes were drop backs (48.8%).
The one big difference last Sunday was the return of Xavier Worthy.
Playing for the first time since injuring his shoulder when colliding with Travis Kelce in the season opener, Worthy accounted for all three of Kansas City’s explosive plays of 20 or more yards. The second-year speedster hauled in a 28-yard reception and caught a 37-yard pass while also rushing for 35 yards on an end-around to the left.
He finished with a career-high 121 yards on just seven plays from scrimmage, and even when he didn’t touch the ball, Mahomes felt he still affected plays because Baltimore had to account for his whereabouts.
“He’s just so explosive, and you just see it,” Mahomes said. “You get the football in his hands and the defense has to adjust, and when they adjust and he gets so much attention on him, other guys can make things happen.”
The numbers categorically back up Mahomes’ theory.
Not only was the offense significantly more productive with Worthy on the field, but Mahomes also wasn’t hit once on his 27 throws compared to being hit three times on his 11 passes when Worthy was on the sidelines.
Worthy was on the field for 28 of his 41 snaps when the Chiefs lined up in 113 personnel, and KC ran successful plays 47.4% of the time out of 113 personnel compared to a 25.0% success rate on all other plays.
In all, with Worthy on the field this past Sunday, Mahomes threw for 219 yards and all four of his touchdowns. Aside from Worthy, Mahomes completed 15 passes to seven other receivers with Hollywood Brown catching three for 38 yards, Kelce having three for 26, JuJu Smith-Schuster catching three for 24 and Brashard Smith catching two for 23.
So, like Mahomes said, Worthy doesn’t need to possess the ball for good things to happen to the Chiefs.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Prediction
Most betting sites view the Chiefs as the favorites, and although the Opta supercomputer predicts success for Jacksonville this season, in this specific game, it has calculated that Kansas City has a 57.9% chance of winning (as of Sunday).
Including a 27-20 victory over the Jaguars in a divisional playoff game from the 2022 season, the Chiefs have won eight straight in the series since a 24-21 loss at Jacksonville in Week 9 of 2009. The only longer active win streak by one team over another is the Dallas Cowboys’ nine-gamer over the New York Giants.
Not only has Kansas City tormented Jacksonville over the years, but playing on Mondays has also flummoxed the Jaguars. Since 2000, the Jags have the NFL’s lowest winning percentage on Monday Night Football at .250, going 3-9.
During their current three-game skid on MNF, they’ve surrendered 38, 34 and 47 points.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post Chiefs vs. Jaguars Prediction: Will there be a changing of the guard in the AFC? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
CHECK OUT THE HOTTEST DEALS ON AMAZON!
Topps, Upper deck, Donruss, Fleer, Score, Upperdeck 600 Baseball Cards Including Babe Ruth, Unopened Packs, Many Stars, and Hall-of-Famers. Ships in White Box Perfect for Gift Giving.
$21.28 (as of October 4, 2025 23:21 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2025 Topps Series 2 Baseball Trading Cards Mega Box (Look for 1990 Foilboard Inserts)
$69.99 (as of October 3, 2025 23:23 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
A'ja Wilson #01 Facsimile Signed Reprint Laser Autographed Funko POP! Basketball WNBA: Las Vegas Aces Figurine with HOFSM Protector Case
$29.99 (as of October 3, 2025 23:23 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2024 Panini Phoenix Football NFL Trading Cards Blaster Box
$34.99 (as of October 4, 2025 23:21 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2025 Panini Donruss Football Holiday Tin box (three 5-card pks/bx)
$35.99 (as of October 3, 2025 23:23 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2024 Topps Baseball Complete Set Factory Sealed Box Set - Baseball Complete Sets
$59.95 (as of October 4, 2025 23:21 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2025 Topps Chrome Sponge Bob 25th Anniversary blaster box - search for Autographs
$69.95 (as of October 4, 2025 23:21 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2024-25 Panini Mosaic Basketball Trading Cards Blaster Box
$24.99 (as of October 4, 2025 23:21 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
Zoo Packs MLB Baseball PSA Graded Card Mystery Power Pack - Amazon Exclusive
$29.95 (as of October 4, 2025 23:21 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
Post Comment