Unlock the Secret Twist That Changes Everything in This Story

Can a single stat from one night tip us off to a seismic shift in a player’s game? When Alperen Sengun drained eight three-pointers in the Houston Rockets’ season opener, it wasn’t just a hot hand—it was a flashing neon sign. In sports, breakthroughs often come wrapped in a single moment: a pitcher’s sudden blistering fastball, a tennis player’s newfound serve speed. But basketball? It’s trickier. One game can be a mere glimpse—a wink from fortune rather than a wholesale upgrade. Yet, Sengun’s fearless barrage from deep prompts a compelling question: when a traditionally cautious shooter suddenly lets loose beyond the arc, is this a fleeting anomaly… or the dawn of a new chapter? Drawing from a select group of players who transformed their shooting habits overnight, this piece unpacks why what matters most might not be accuracy just yet—it’s the mindset to take the shot. Houston’s big man might not have perfected the three-point shot, but after lighting it up early, we’re pretty sure he’s made up his mind: this season, the Rockets are looking at a different Sengun. Ready to fire—or just warming up? Let’s dive in. LEARN MORE

Alperen Sengun took eight 3s in the Houston Rockets’ NBA season opener. That might already be enough to know how his game will change this season.

In certain sports, all it takes is one moment to ascertain that a player has a new skill.

In baseball, if a pitcher has maxed his velocity out at 92 mph his whole career and then throws one pitch at 95 mph, it’s obvious he can do something he couldn’t do before. Same with a tennis player who increases the mph on his or her serve.

There isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison in the NBA, especially with publicly available data. There aren’t prevalent stats measured in the same way. A player can make all 12 of his shots in a game, but it could simply be a good stretch. We need several more games to accurately predict if the player’s shot making has actually improved.

But if we can’t judge a player’s performance in one game and ascribe meaning to it, maybe we can judge his mentality.

All NBA offenses are built at least in part on 3-point shooting, but players still need to be comfortable taking them to get the green light in games. We can’t judge how good of a shooter a player is after one game, but it’s possible we can judge whether players will be more willing to attempt 3-point shots after seeing them play just once to start the season.

If an NBA player who previously was a low-volume outside shooter attempts a lot of 3s in his first game of the season, does that automatically mean he’ll shoot a lot the rest of the season? Or could it be a one-game blip? Let’s find out.

Ready to Fire

To establish whether players who don’t shoot 3-pointers should be reevaluated after one game, we’ll have to establish some parameters.

We’re looking for players who were established in the league, did not take 3s at a medium or high volume previously in their careers but then let it fly in their opening game in a particular season. So, we can look at a group of players based on the following criteria:

Attempted at least six 3-pointers in their season-opening game
Played at least three seasons prior to the season opener
Averaged under 2.5 3-point attempts per game in each season prior to that season opener
Played at least 15 minutes per game the season in question (to exclude players who played a lot in the opener but did not do so for the season)

That list brings up 12 individual seasons since 2010. Almost all of them increased their 3-point attempts per game significantly.

As you can see, in the 12 times this occurred, the player set a career-high in 3-point attempts 11 times (and the other time basically tied a career high). Nine of the 12 times, the player’s 3-point attempts per game went up over 50% compared to their previous career high. In nearly half (five) of the cases, the player shot at least twice as many 3-point attempts per game.

It’s not a massive sample of players, but this list has told us that if you meet these set of circumstances and your name isn’t Norris Cole, you’re going to shoot significantly more 3s that season. It may only be a one-game sample, but that sample may be all we need to change our opinion on how often a player will shoot 3s.

It makes sense. Several players spend all offseason working on their shots, but only the ones who feel good enough about it through the preseason (and have the coach’s blessing) are going to shoot them once the regular season comes around.

Blake Griffin is the most drastic and most famous example on this list. He was a five-time All-Star heading into the 2017-18 season and scored the vast majority of his points inside the arc. But he needed to adapt his game due to his declining athleticism, and he unleashed six 3-point attempts his season opener. It was only the second time in his career up to that point that he had attempted more than five 3s in a game, but he ended up averaging 5.7 3-point attempts per game that season.

Dorell Wright is another interesting example. He attempted six 3-pointers in his first game of 2010-11. That was a sign of things to come, as he led the league in 3-point attempts per game that year despite previously having never attempted more than 2.2 per game in a season.

The Shot of Sengun

This becomes all the more interesting when we look at the player who qualified for the list this season.

Houston’s Alperen Sengun was an All-Star for the first time last year and is an elite scorer but has never shot 3-pointers with any regularity. He averaged a career-high 1.8 3-point attempts per game in 2023-24 and was down to 1.2 attempts per game last season. But the Turkish big man hit five of eight 3s in a season-opening loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Despite adding Kevin Durant, the Rockets badly need more 3-point shooting. They finished 20th in the NBA in 3-point attempts per game last season and last in the playoffs in the same stat.

They also lost the three players who led the team in 3-point attempts last year, either to trade (Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks) or injury (Fred VanVleet). Shooting is a major concern for the Rockets offense this year.

While we’re not certain Sengun will shoot 3-pointers well yet, we can be fairly confident he’ll at least shoot them. And taking the shots is important in and of itself. Gravity as an offensive player in the NBA is based in part just on who is willing to shoot. Defenders used to sag off Sengun outside the 3-point line; if he shows he’ll shoot when open out there, that won’t be the case anymore.

Obviously, it’ll be a much bigger help if Sengun can make 3s with regularity. But it’s hard to make any conclusions on how well he’ll shoot based on one game. We can, however, say with reasonable confidence that he will take those shots this season. In a sport where we need several games to feel strongly about any changes being definitive, non-shooters turning into willing ones may be an exception.

Research provided by Jeff Mangurtern. Follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.

The post How We Already Know Alperen Sengun Will Be Different This Season for the Houston Rockets appeared first on Opta Analyst.