Unlock the Secret: Why Woody Marks Could Explode Thursday Night and Shatter Week 12 Betting Odds

As the NFL season barrels toward its final furlongs, a few squads are already waving the white flag on playoff hopes and meaningful pushes in these waning weeks. Take the Tennessee Titans, for example — mathematically benched from the division race, they’re out of the picture. Meanwhile, the New York Jets have cooled expectations by declaring that Coach Aaron Glenn’s fate won’t hinge on how the rest of the season unfolds, signaling a strange sort of steadiness in the face of uncertainty. Then there’s the New York Giants, who’ve not only parted ways with their coach but are also gingerly managing injuries to preserve their young core without risking further damage.

Tracking late-season betting lines gets tricky — motivation, or the lack thereof, can tilt injury reports and team decisions in subtle but telling ways. Consider Jaxson Dart’s ongoing concussion protocol; the drive to hasten his return seems pretty low, which might keep him sidelined longer despite not shaking the betting odds much between him and Jameis Winston. Quarterback shuffles like these always add some spice to how the lines move and the bets shape up.

With that backdrop, here’s a glimpse at some savvy early plays for Week 12, straight from the cutting edge of game-day insight and market twitching. Want to dive deeper into the latest NFL betting odds and storylines? LEARN MORE

We have now reached the point in the NFL calendar where some teams know they aren’t competing for a playoff bid or an impactful late-season run. The Tennessee Titans have been outright removed from division odds because they are mathematically eliminated. The New York Jets have publicly stated that head coach Aaron Glenn’s job status will not be affected by the final record this season. The New York Giants have already moved on from their coach, lost several young core players to season-ending injuries and will be more cautious with injuries moving forward.

When evaluating some of these lines, factoring in team motivation for a late-season run can dictate which direction a questionable injury tag ultimately goes. One example that would not surprise me is if Jaxson Dart misses another week in concussion protocol because the incentive to bring him back is low. I do not think the line changes much between Dart and Jameis Winston, but another quarterback uncertainty spot is always worth monitoring.

Here are a couple of early bets for Week 12.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Buffalo Bills (-5.5, 44) at Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud is one player who has missed time with a recent concussion and the Texans are opting not to rush him back, as he was ruled out already for Thursday’s game. The Texans are 5-5, three games back in the division and on the outside of the bubble for a wild-card spot. They have a 3% chance to win their division and a 13% chance of securing a wild-card spot. They will certainly try, but with a tough remaining schedule and a short week, the outlook appears dim.

The betting market indicated early in the week that Stroud was unlikely to play, as the line moved from Bills -3.5 when the market opened on Sunday for Week 12 and has progressed to a consensus of Bills -5.5 or -6 showing up. The total has also dropped from 45.5 to 44 at BetMGM.

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I think the best way to play this game is by taking rookie running back Woody Marks to see heavy volume. With Stroud out, running against the Bills is the way to beat them, and the Texans are moving away from giving Nick Chubb a full workload. I like Marks to get over 15.5 rush attempts, and I also like his over on rushing yards props listed below. It is rare for me to attack the prop market in my early-week bets, but since this game is on Thursday it is already shaping up as a sharp spot in the prop market, fitting perfectly with market signals, workload trends and football logic.

The Bills have allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL, rank 31st in opponent rushing yards allowed and are second-worst in yards per carry allowed at 5.4 per touch. Look for the Texans — with a backup quarterback — to hand the ball off plenty in this short-week home game.

Bet: Woody Marks over 15.5 rush attempts (-105)

Other related bets I like to this: Marks over 61.5 rushing yards (-115), Over 76.5 Rush + Rec Yards (-110)

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 49)

The Panthers and 49ers are two teams whose offensive production is driven primarily by establishing the run. Both teams have exactly 74 rushing first downs, which ranks top five in the league.

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey spent the early part of this season as a more productive receiver out of the backfield than a rushing threat, but his rushing prowess behind a zone blocking scheme has reemerged, and he now has six rushing touchdowns in San Francisco’s last six games. On the Panthers side, Rico Dowdle has taken over the backfield and rocketed up to third in the NFL in rushing yards despite being a backup for essentially the first half of the season.

What is also sneaky about this game is that neither team has had its bye week yet this season, and both will get that bye in Week 14. I would not be surprised if the average time between plays increases and fewer total plays are accumulated because the run-heavy approach keeps the clock moving and enforces a slower pace. Other books in the market have already reached this total and started moving it back down, making 49 appear to be a clear resistance point. This market read, combined with the football factors and the late-season schedule spot, makes me lean heavily toward the under.

I don’t expect this Monday Night Football game to get any higher than 49, so play the under while it is still available.

Bet: Under 49