Unlock the Shocking Secret Behind the Latest Breakthrough That Everyone’s Talking About!

Ever wonder if the experts you rely on for your fantasy football picks are missing a trick or two? As Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season rolls in, it’s time to throw conventional wisdom out the window and let the cold, hard data speak for itself. From Christian McCaffrey’s eye-popping reception pace to Puka Nacua’s unbelievable chase of an all-time record, the numbers are telling a story that might just flip your lineup decisions on their head. And then there’s the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense, quietly dominating with a takeaway surge that’s as surprising as it is game-changing. So, who’s really the hidden gem poised to outshine expert consensus? And which trusted names are primed to underdeliver? Let’s dig in—because in fantasy football, feeling ahead of the curve isn’t just an advantage, it’s a necessity.

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In our 2025 NFL Week 6 fantasy football start and sit, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the overall expert picks.

It’s time for a favorite here at Opta Analyst. Here are five stats that have defined the fantasy season entering Week 6, starting with an old friend who has opened this intro multiple times in the past.

3

That’s how many seasons in NFL history a running back has recorded at least 107 receptions.

Christian McCaffrey has two of those seasons, including a running back record 117 with the Carolina Panthers in 2019. Through five weeks this season, he is on a 133-reception pace.

No Brock Purdy, no George Kittle, no Brandon Aiyuk, no Ricky Pearsall or Jauan Jennings, no problem for the San Francisco 49ers, who have ridden this historic start to the season from McCaffrey to the tune of a 4-1 record.

By the way, he doesn’t have a rushing touchdown yet. In fact, the 49ers as a team don’t have one. Despite that, McCaffrey has scored at least 22 PPR points in every game and is fantasy’s top running back a third of the way into the fantasy season.

134

The only player with more fantasy points – quarterbacks included – than McCaffrey so far? That would be Puka Nacua who is three (?) games away from having numbers that would constitute a good season for 90% of the NFL’s wide receivers.

If McCaffrey’s on pace to shatter the running back reception record, Nacua is on track to shatter the all-time reception record (149) set by Michael Thomas six years ago for the New Orleans Saints. There have been 14 games this season in which a player has recorded at least 10 receptions. Nacua has four of those games. He’s only played five games.

Oh, and in case you’re wondering, he only had eight catches and 91 receiving yards in that other game. Matthew Stafford was the quarterback for the Detroit Lions when Calvin Johnson set the receiving record with 1,964 receiving yards. Matthew Stafford was the quarterback for the Los Angeles Rams in 2021 when Cooper Kupp had 1,947 receiving yards and won the receiving triple crown.

There hasn’t been another season in NFL history where a receiver had 1,900 receiving yards. Could this be the third for Stafford, with a third different receiver? Zay Flowers is second in the NFL with 29 burns. Nacua has 45. It is insanity what this guy is doing. Here’s betting he challenges the 2,000-yard mark and finishes as fantasy’s WR1 by a mile.

14

That’s how many takeaways fantasy’s top defense, the Jacksonville Jaguars, have recorded so far in 2025.

For comparison sakes, they only had nine all of last year – good for dead last in the NFL. Of those 14 takeaways, 10 of them are interceptions, a total that nine teams did not reach in 2024, including, of course, the Jags.

Jacksonville still has games left this season against Geno Smith and the Las Vegas Raiders, Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers, and Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos – three of the nine quarterbacks with four interceptions already this season. Not to mention two games against Cam Ward and the Tennessee Titans. This is a defense that has a great chance to remain a top-three fantasy option.

3 (again)

That’s how many wide receivers have 100 PPR points. Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Emeka Egbuka.

Egbuka is fourth in the NFL in receiving yards, tied for second in receiving touchdowns and leads the NFL in receptions of 25 or more yards. He has done all this despite merely ranking 17th in targets. Without Mike Evans, and with Chris Godwin only just coming back from injury last week, Egbuka has not only been the NFL’s best rookie, but he’s been among the best wide receivers period.

He is your early season WR3. If he keeps up this pace, he will have put up the next best amazing rookie season we’ve seen in the NFL, after Nacua and Brock Bowers put up historic seasons in recent years.

1

That’s how many teams have a player in the top six at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end. That would be the Dallas Cowboys, with Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, George Pickens and Jake Ferguson.

Better yet from a fantasy perspective? Their respective average draft positions (ADP) were QB11, RB36, WR28 and TE15. If you are a Dallas Cowboys fan, or even just a Cowboys believer, you are probably 5-0 and feeling on top of the fantasy world.

And for good measure, Brandon Aubrey is the third-best kicker. Eight of their next 10 games are indoors. This is a league-winning, league-defining offense, that is about to get CeeDee Lamb back.

The Week 6 Fantasy Football Yays: Players Projected to Overperform Consensus Rankings

Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Thursday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.

Daniel Jones, QB (IND) vs AZ (ECR: 13, Our Rank: QB2, Projected Points: 19.17)

The name is still scary to trust, I mean, we’re talking about *Daniel Jones* here. But that’s the point, he is currently underrated by the industry based on previous perceptions. This year, Jones has been outstanding.

He’s third in the NFL in passing yards and yards per pass attempt, and only two of the 19 quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts have fewer interceptions. The Indianapolis Colts have scored at least 29 points in four of five games to start the season, all wins, and in those games Jones is averaging 21.2 points per game.

However, what particularly vaults Jones to the high-end quarterback tier this week is his penchant for reaching the end zone. He has three rushing touchdowns this season – tied for second among quarterbacks – and in the last full season he played in 2022, he had seven. At home against an Arizona Cardinals team coming off a loss that will be hard to beat in the unofficial “worst loss of the season” ranking, Jones is an elite option for fantasy managers.

Kyren Williams, RB (LAR) vs BAL (ECR: 11, Our Rank: RB3, Projected Points: 21.93)

Kyren Williams was the RB3 last week, and that includes fumbling the ball at the one-yard line as he was heading in for a third touchdown. Williams is tied for fifth in the NFL in rush attempts and only one other Los Angeles Rams running back has recorded a carry this season – Blake Corum – and he also fumbled against the 49ers last week.

So, what we have is a bell-cow running back, on an elite fantasy offense, playing… the worst defense in the NFL? The Baltimore Ravens are last in the NFL in myriad defensive categories including rushing touchdowns of 20+ yards allowed, first downs surrendered, total rushes plus completions allowed per game and, of course, total points allowed. But hey, at least they’re better at stopping the run, right? Yep! The Ravens are 28th in the rushing yards allowed per game, which is sadly better than their 31st-ranked pass defense.

That of course, is only half the story because no team has dealt with more injuries on the defensive side of the ball than Baltimore. Unfortunately, a compromised defense playing against Stafford and Sean McVay is recipe for disaster. The model likes Williams chances of finishing as a top-three back for the second straight week.

Jaylen Waddle, WR (MIA) vs LAC (ECR: 12, Our Rank: WR5, Projected Points: 14.98)

Next man up, as the saying goes. After Tyreek Hill’s brutal injury during Week 4, Waddle is the undisputed lead dog in the Miami Dolphins wide receiver room. Hill, to his major credit, had been available throughout his entire tenure with the Dolphins. Up until last week, he’d only missed one game.

Last week, Waddle had nine targets, six receptions, 110 receiving yards and a touchdown. In that only other game that Hill missed, Waddle had nine targets, eight receptions, 142 receiving yards and a touchdown. Tua Tagovailoa has proven that while he may have some limitations as a real-life quarterback, producing elite fantasy wide receivers is not one of them.

The Los Angeles Chargers have already allowed three different receivers to record at least six receptions and 90 receiving yards in a game. Waddle might be the fourth, and until he gives us a reason to think otherwise, without Tyreek Hill, he’s a must-start player.

Xavier Worthy, WR (KC) vs DET (ECR: 14, Our Rank: WR6, Projected Points: 14.71)

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are in an unfamiliar spot: under .500 through five games. In 2022 and 2024, the Chiefs only lost three and two games, respectively, all season. In 2023, their third loss wasn’t until Week 11. Suddenly, they’re facing the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football to avoid falling to 2-4 with the Washington Commanders, Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts as four of their next five opponents.

In Week 2, we overreacted to the Chiefs Week 1 loss and wondered if there was a chance they could miss the playoffs. If they want to turn their season around starting on Sunday, Worthy will be a big part of it. He has at least eight targets in both games since his return, and an offense that seemed like it was struggling to score has averaged 32.5 points over the last two weeks.

Of course, no offense is hotter than the Lions offense right now, giving this all the makings of a shootout. The only way for the Chiefs to keep pace? Feed the fastest player in the league. In seven career games with eight targets, Worthy averages 15.8 PPR points per game. His projected targets this week? 8.1.

Worthy didn’t practice Thursday, so he could put fantasy managers in a bind with a questionable tag for a Sunday night game. But if the signs point to him playing, he’s in line for a big game.

Kansas City Chiefs fantasy projections Week 6

The Week 6 Fantasy Football Nays: Players Projected to Underperform Consensus Rankings

Jordan Love, QB (GB) vs CIN (ECR: 10, Our Rank: QB17, Projected Points: 14.33)

The Cincinnati Bengals are on a three-game losing streak. Tough, but not uncommon. What is unique? On this three-game stretch, they have been outscored by 76 points. So how is it possible that the quarterback facing this Bengals team could be a Nay?

Well, the thing about winning by large margins, and doing it early, is that quarterbacks lose the opportunity to throw the ball, whether it’s because of an increased volume of runs, or because they’re sitting on the bench because the game is over entering the fourth quarter. This has led to only one quarterback finishing a week as better than QB10 so far this season against the Bengals defense.

Love is 28th in projected pass attempts – there are only 30 teams playing this week. Josh Jacobs is first in projected rushing touchdowns. Love is unlikely to throw the ball enough to be a solid option in one-quarterback leagues. Or, if you do play him, you’re hoping that Joe Flacco on five days’ notice is a big enough upgrade from Jake Browning to turn the Bengals into a functional offense again. Good luck!

Kenneth Walker III, RB (SEA) vs JAC (ECR: 23, Our Rank: RB31, Projected Points: 10.04)

1, 1, 1 and 1. You know what that number represents? The number of receptions Walker has recorded in each of the last four games. Why does that make sense? Because Sam Darnold’s 9.13 air yards per pass is tops among all current starting NFL quarterbacks (sorry Russell Wilson).

We highlighted the Jags defense at the top. They have allowed fewer than 90 rushing yards in three games this season, and while the Chiefs did have three rushing touchdowns last week against them, the defense had only allowed one rushing touchdown through the first four weeks.

This is a dynamic Seattle Seahawks offense that likes to throw the ball downfield. Walker’s going to get his fair share of touches, but he is a touchdown-dependent RB2.

Khalil Shakir, WR (BUF) vs ATL (ECR: 30, Our Rank: WR41, Projected Points: 9.92)

Is there a more confusing offense than the Buffalo Bills? Josh Allen finishes first or second in fantasy points every season. The Bills finished second in points scored last season. Shakir had the most fantasy points among all Bills wide receivers. He finished 2024 as the WR43.

This year, the Bills are third in points per game. Allen is first among quarterbacks. Shakir once again leads Buffalo wide receivers in fantasy points. He’s averaging 11.6 PPR points per game. That’s tied for 33rd. He has two games this season with more than 45 receiving yards. He only has two games with more than five targets.

But maybe they’re not that confusing at all. They are second in rushing yards per game. They are first in total rushes per game. Their quarterback is such a cyborg that he is actually the elite option at the position every year because he averages over 7.3 PPR points per game on the ground. And James Cook? He leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns since the start of last season. Shakir may be the top passing option in this offense, but he’s only the third option in the offense. He is a tough start this week.

Didn’t see the names you were after? Be sure to check out our full Week 6 fantasy football projections. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.

The post Fantasy Football Week 6 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: Our Yays and Nays vs. Consensus Rankings appeared first on Opta Analyst.