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Three weeks back, the Chiefs barely clawed their way to a crucial SNF win—was it the season’s saving grace or just a lucky break? Now, they’re staring down the roaring Lions, arguably the NFL’s hottest squad lately. Can Mahomes and his crew hush the Detroit noise and regain momentum, or will the Lions continue their relentless march, proving that their season-opening win at Arrowhead wasn’t a fluke? With the odds and stats painting an intriguing picture, this Sunday night showdown promises more than just another game; it’s a testing ground for resilience, strategy, and maybe a bit of grit. Ready for a clash that could redefine both teams’ seasons?
Three weeks ago, the Chiefs grinded out a victory on SNF to potentially save their season. Can they cool off the Lions, who have looked like the best team in the NFL recently?
Lions vs. Chiefs: The Key Stats
- The Chiefs are favored to beat the Lions, winning 59.6% of pre-game simulations by the Opta supercomputer (as of Friday).
- The Lions’ win at Kansas City in the 2023 NFL opener marked Detroit’s first victory at Arrowhead Stadium since 1988, ending a four-game losing streak there.
- The Lions have called more play-action pass plays than any other team (39), while the Chiefs are surrendering an NFL-worst 14.4 yards on play-action passes.
Remember back when Detroit Lions fans were in panic mode because they looked clunky in a season-opening loss and wondered if the offense was doomed after former coordinator Ben Johnson bolted for the Chicago Bears.
Well, those days appear to be over, but the sky is once again falling in Kansas City.
The Chiefs dropped back below .500 with a sloppy performance in a gut-wrenching loss on Monday Night Football and now find themselves in a similar situation to three weeks ago.
Just like in Week 3, the Chiefs play on Sunday Night Football and desperately need a win to pacify their fanbase, quiet their critics and get their season on track.
Unlike three weeks ago, however, they play a tougher opponent than the Giants at that time (before Jaxson Dart, Cam Skattebo and Co. turned things around in New York).
The Lions arrive in Kansas City after improving to 4-1 with Sunday’s 37-24 road victory over the scuffling Cincinnati Bengals, winning their fourth straight while scoring at least 32 points in each – the first time the franchise has done that in the Super Bowl era.
With the offense clicking, the Opta supercomputer has tabulated Detroit’s chances of making the playoffs at 60.6% entering the weekend. (Part of the reason the NFC North-leading Lions’ playoff probability looks a tad low is that starting with the Chiefs this week, they face the fourth-toughest remaining schedule.)
Kansas City’s probability of playing in the postseason isn’t far from Detroit’s at 58.2%, though that finds them behind seven other AFC foes. Before the start of the season, that number was at 76.6% – the second highest among all AFC teams.
Three weeks ago, the Chiefs grinded out a victory on SNF to potentially save their season. Can they do it again?
Chiefs’ Key to Victory vs. Lions
It’s not difficult to figure out how Kansas City squandered a 14-point lead in suffering a 31-28 road loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night.
The Chiefs were flagged for 13 penalties – their most since 2018 – and were on the wrong side of a 14-point swing when Patrick Mahomes’ pass intended for JuJu Smith-Schuster in the end zone was intercepted by Devin Lloyd and returned 99 yards for a touchdown.
Sifting through the wreckage, one positive can be uncovered for the 2-3 Chiefs. After going through September without any major threat from its running back corps, Kansas City finally got its ground game in gear.
Kareem Hunt rushed for a season-high 49 yards and two touchdowns on seven carries and Isiah Pacheco ran for 36 yards on his seven attempts. Yes, Patrick Mahomes still led the Chiefs with 60 rushing yards on six attempts and still has a team-high 190 rushing yards on the season, but it was a step in the right direction for a team that has an NFL-low 59.2% of its rushing yards coming from its running backs.
The Lions, led by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, are on the opposite end of this list. They get 96.4% of their rushing yards coming from their running backs.
Against the Jaguars, the Chiefs ran outside zone running plays five times after calling outside zone runs just eight times in their first four games. Hunt had three of those runs go for 40 total yards, with 33 coming on one play. In Weeks 1-4, he had two total outside zone runs, gaining 6 yards.
Replicating that success this week won’t be easy, however, as the Lions are one of the NFL’s best teams at suppressing outside zone running plays. In defending against such plays, they rank fifth in average yards allowed at 2.5. The NFL average is 4.4.
The Lions, though, haven’t been nearly as effective against inside zone running plays, allowing an average of 4.2 yards, with the league average sitting at 4.1.
That is where Pacheco’s number could be called. Against Jacksonville, Pacheco averaged 6.2 yards on five runs on inside zone concepts. This comes after he averaged 4.2 yards on 13 inside zone runs in the first four games.
Lions’ Key to Victory vs. Chiefs
Ever since a lackluster showing in a 27-13 season-opening loss to the Green Bay Packers, all the Lions have done is crank out 20 offensive touchdowns – five more than any other team since Week 2.
Jared Goff was sharp in the latest victory, completing 19 of 23 passes for 258 yards with three touchdowns for a 153.0 rating – his second 150 or better QB rating through five games.
In the latest one, offensive coordinator John Morton mixed up Detroit’s offense a bit. The Lions lined up in a 122 set 40.0% of the time and used a 113 personnel on 26.7% of the offensive snaps after being in a 122 formation 31.0% of the time and a 113 personnel on 61.6% of snaps through the first four games.
Play action is Detroit’s bread and butter, and the Lions ran it a season-high 10 times this past Sunday, with Goff only dropping back to pass on three occasions. Through the first four weeks of the season, the Lions had Goff drop back on 50.0% of their pass concepts and ran play action on 31.5% of their designed throws.
No team has run more play action this season than the Lions, and Goff has completed 24-of-35 passes for 371 yards with five touchdowns and an interception for a 131.1 passer rating on such calls. He has a 114.8 rating on passes out of other play concepts.
This sets up well for Detroit, as the Chiefs are one of the worst teams at defending against play action, yielding successful plays 75.0% of the time with opponents averaging a league-high 14.4 yards on such plays. That’s nearly double the NFL average of 7.9 yards.
Lions vs. Chiefs Prediction
The Lions look like a juggernaut, and the Chiefs are coming off a discouraging loss. So naturally, most betting sites, as well as the Opta supercomputer, favor Kansas City on SNF. The supercomputer calculates the Chiefs have a 59.6% chance of winning at home.
These teams last met in the 2023 NFL season opener, with Detroit spoiling Kansas City’s Super Bowl banner-raising ceremony with a 21-20 win at Arrowhead Stadium. That marked the Lions’ first win in Kansas City since a 7-6 “thriller” in 1988, ending a four-game losing streak there.
The Lions have also won 13 of their last 15 against AFC teams and own an NFL-best .846 winning percentage against the AFC (11-2) since the start of the 2023 season, beginning with that victory over the Chiefs.
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The post Lions vs. Chiefs Prediction: Can Mahomes and Co. Get on Track Against the NFL’s Hottest Team? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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