Unlock Week 12 Fantasy Football Secrets: Who to Start, Sit, and Smash Your League!

As the fantasy football season barrels toward its climax, the question isn’t just who you’re starting this week—it’s whether you’re swimming with the data tide or paddling against it. Week 12 of the 2025 NFL campaign presents a fresh clash of insights where raw numbers tell stories that sometimes defy the polished consensus expert picks. From Christian McCaffrey’s eye-popping reception counts to Jonathan Taylor’s ground-shaking dominance, and Trey McBride’s relentless clutch catches, the field is packed with narratives that could turn your lineup from a solid guess to a masterstroke. So, are you ready to challenge the common wisdom and let the stats guide your next move? Let’s dive into the figures and forecasts that are reshaping fantasy expectations—and maybe, just maybe, snag you that elusive victory. LEARN MORE.

In our 2025 NFL Week 12 fantasy football start and sit, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the overall expert picks.

Don’t look now, but we’re entering the home stretch of fantasy football regular seasons.

As such, it’s a good time for a favorite: Here are five numbers – and in this case, players – that are defining the 2025 fantasy season through 11 weeks.

74

That is how many receptions Christian McCaffrey has this season. Last year, De’Von Achane led all running backs with 78 catches. Heck, there have only been 19 individual seasons since 2018 in which a running back has caught 74 passes.

Better yet? Since 2000, McCaffrey is already 20th among running backs in receiving yards in a single season with 732. There have only been three running backs who have ever had more than 1,000 receiving yards in a season. Marshall Faulk’s record of 1,048 receiving yards has stood since the beginning of the “Greatest Show on Turf” St. Louis Rams era back in 1999. CMC? He’s on pace for over 1,100.

He is a historic player and a future Hall of Famer who is having an elite season for a San Francisco 49ers offense that has been besieged by injury. He is not just the PPR RB1, he is fantasy’s No. 1 overall player.

1

That’s where the Indianapolis Colts currently rank in yards per game, yards per play, points per game and point differential. They have been an absolute juggernaut, led by Jonathan Taylor and an outrageously good offensive line.

But now, coming out of their bye, things are about to get interesting. Their remaining schedule is incredibly difficult. They head to Arrowhead this week to face the Kansas City Chiefs, who probably feel like they have to win every remaining game just to make the playoffs. And that is, by record, tied with the Houston Texans for the easiest remaining game on the Colts’ schedule. They still have four games against the Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars, and games against the 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. If they come out of this stretch looking anything like they did in the first half of the season, you will be looking at a team that should be considered the Super Bowl favorites.

So, Jonathan Taylor, how far can you lead this team? For everything that McCaffrey is doing through the air for the Niners, what Taylor is doing on the ground is equally, or dare I say, even more impressive. If a running back were ever to put up a legitimate MVP case, it’d be Taylor replicating his first half against this significant uptick in competition. Along with Colts fans, all his fantasy managers are surely rooting for it.

12

That is how many games in a row Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride has had at least five receptions. Unfortunately, he is languishing on an uninspiring Cardinals team, but don’t let that distract from how good McBride has been since the start of the 2024 season.

He only has four games with fewer than five catches during that stretch. Of course, they all came last season because he’s hit that mark in every game so far this year – the only player, tight end or otherwise, to do so.

He’s not only the top fantasy tight end by a mile, but he’s sixth among all pass catchers, making him a WR1 populating your tight end slot every week. If there were a five-person fantasy MVP ballot after five weeks, the list would be: Taylor, McBride, Javonte Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and George Pickens.

6

That is, assuming he keeps up the torrid pace he is on this season, how many consecutive seasons Josh Allen will have finished as a top-two fantasy quarterback. Let this just serve as another reminder that for the entire decade, there has not been a safer fantasy draft pick than Allen.

Oh, and he’s also awesome to watch. Six touchdowns last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Check. The most fantasy points in a single game by a QB this season? Check. And he’s doing this with a group of offensive weapons that aren’t exactly setting the league on fire. What a player.

98.9

That is Myles Garrett’s pass rush rating. Out of 100. Be sure to check out our NFL Player Ratings that just went up on the site!

He is to the Cleveland Browns defense what Allen is to the Bills offense. A singular force who, with a little more longevity, is unequivocally forcing himself into the upper echelon of all-time players to play his position.

The Browns defense is first in the NFL in first downs allowed and passing yards allowed per game, and they rank fourth in total sacks with 32. The player with the second-most sacks on the Browns is Maliek Collins, with four. Garrett has 15 and is on pace to smash the long-standing single-season sack record of 22.5.

Again, we say… what a player.

The Week 12 Fantasy Football Yays: Players Projected to Overperform Consensus Rankings

Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Thursday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.

Sam Darnold, QB (SEA) vs TEN (ECR: 15, Our Rank: QB11, Projected Points: 16.49)

It was NOT a good day at the office for the Seattle Seahawks’ signal caller last week. Darnold threw four interceptions against the Los Angeles Rams in a game that the Seahawks somehow still had a chance to win at the last second with a long field goal.

Last week was Darnold’s first game since Week 1 with zero passing touchdowns, and it was his second straight terrible fantasy game after having three turnovers and only throwing 12 passes in a game in which Seattle scored 44 points.

And yet, despite that, Darnold is first in the NFL in a myriad of offensive categories including passer rating on balls thrown 21 or more yards in the air. Not only is his 146.5 passer rating on such throws first in the NFL, but it is on track to be the best mark by a quarterback this century. Which makes it a good time to mention that his Week 12 opponents, the Tennessee Titans, rank 28th in passer rating allowed on deep throws.

It has been a tricky two weeks, but Darnold is a borderline top-10 option at quarterback this week.

Breece Hall, RB (NYJ) vs BAL (ECR: 17, Our Rank: RB11, Projected Points: 16.22)

This might be the biggest mismatch of the week. Trusting any Jet this week against the Baltimore Ravens feels like a big ask. Hall should be the lone exception.

For starters, he’s been really good during the Jets’ last three games. Hall has averaged over 20 PPR points per game since Week 8 and is all the way up to seventh in the NFL in scrimmage yards per game on the season. And just as importantly, Tyrod Taylor was the announced starter for the Jets this week. He can’t be much worse than Justin Fields, who finished with fewer than 55 passing yards in four of his nine games as the starter this year.

Hall is ninth in projected rushes and seventh in projected receiving yards among running backs. That expected volume, despite going up against a defense that has been better lately as its gotten healthier, is enough to push Hall into lower-end RB1 status for the week.

Parker Washington, WR (JAC) vs ARI (ECR: 35, Our Rank: WR17, Projected Points: 13.34)

Injuries have decimated the Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver room, and Washington is seemingly the last remaining receiver with real chemistry with Lawrence. It’s paying dividends.

Washington has at least seven targets in three of his last four games, and Arizona is a great defense to face if you’re getting that sort of attention. Over the last five games, 10 players have at least six targets against the Cardinals defense. Those players averaged 17.3 PPR points per game.

Washington is ninth among wide receivers in projected targets this week. He is a worthy Flex play this week indoors against a struggling defense.

Darnell Mooney, WR (ATL) vs NO (ECR: 33, Our Rank: WR21, Projected Points: 12.33)

Someone has to catch passes for the Atlanta Falcons this week, right? Kirk Cousins can’t possibly be as bad as he looked coming in last week after Michael Penix Jr. got injured, right? They’re playing the New Orleans Saints for crying out loud!

Mooney had 12 games last season with Cousins as his quarterback with at least four targets. In those 12 games, he averaged 7.6 targets and 71.5 receiving yards per game. With Drake London unlikely to play this week, Mooney is the best positioned receiver to take advantage of all the vacant targets. He, like Washington, is solidly in Flex consideration.

The Week 12 Fantasy Football Nays: Players Projected to Underperform Consensus Rankings

Joe Flacco, QB (CIN) vs NE (ECR: 18, Our Rank: QB27, Projected Points: 11.50)

Flacco has been a revelation for the Cincinnati Bengals in backing up Joe Burrow. There’s a chance that Burrow is back this week after he logged two full practices in a row on Wednesday and Thursday, but it’s also possible the Bengals are cautious with their franchise QB and let Flacco get one more start.

The model’s recommendation if Flacco plays? Well, he is currently sandwiched in the rankings by Shedeur Sanders and J.J. McCarthy, which should tell you everything you need to know. I have more rushing yards than Flacco does over his last two games. So do you. He is the quarterback most reliant on passing output, and with Ja’Marr Chase suspended for the game and Tee Higgins likely to get the Christian Gonzalez treatment, his passing outlook isn’t as rosy as it normally is.

Saquon Barkley, RB (PHI) vs DAL (ECR: 6, Our Rank: RB15, Projected Points: 14.38)

This is now the third time in 12 weeks that Barkley has found himself as a Nay. He is still on track to average a career low in yards per carry and worse than that, he has a touchdown in only one of his last five games.

On the other side of the ball, while there’s been a lot of jokes made at the expense of the Dallas Cowboys defense, they do have a decent run defense right now, so kudos to Jerry Jones for that at least, right? In their first game with Quinnen Williams, the Cowboys limited Ashton Jeanty to seven rushing yards on six attempts.

Barkley is 14th in projected rushing yards and 20th in projected rushing touchdowns. Usually, playing the Cowboys is a good matchup, but our model prefers the Eagles passing game (shocking, we know), with Jalen Hurts our QB2 and DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown our WR9 and WR10, respectively.

Rashee Rice, WR (KC) vs IND (ECR: 4, Our Rank: WR16, Projected Points: 13.39)

Could this possibly be an indictment on Patrick Mahomes? No, Mahomes is our QB3 this week. In fact, at home, against a dynamic Colts offense, all the ingredients should be in place for the Chiefs to need to score a bunch of points.

But there are a couple of things working against Rashee Rice. First, the old man’s still got it. Travis Kelce leads the Chiefs in targets, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns on the season. He’s been particularly lethal of late with 26 targets and 256 receiving yards in the Chiefs last three games, which mostly coincides with Rice’s return to the field in Week 7. Second? The Colts have only allowed one wide receiver to score a touchdown in the last three weeks, and they just traded for an elite cover cornerback in Sauce Gardner.

Rice is one of only 15 wide receivers averaging at least eight targets per game since the start of the 2024 season. His floor is high, but our model thinks he’s much more of a solid WR2 than an elite WR1 option this week.

Didn’t see the names you were after? Be sure to check out our full Week 12 fantasy football projections. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.

The post The Yays and Nays: NFL Week 12 Fantasy Football Start ’Em-Sit ’Em, Projections & Rankings appeared first on Opta Analyst.