Unlocking Secrets: What They Don’t Want You to Know About [Article Topic]

Ah, Separation Sunday — the day NFL fans quietly clutch their coffee a little tighter and whisper prayers to whatever sports deity they worship. Why? Because Week 14 didn’t just roll in; it barged through the door with a slate jam-packed with knockout showdowns that could very well reshape the playoff landscape overnight. Think Steelers-Ravens drama, Bengals clashing with the Bills, Colts facing down the Jaguars, and Bears tangling with the Packers. Each game carried a weight that sent ripples through division titles and playoff hopes alike. Now, here’s the real kicker: how exactly did these battles slam the brakes or turbocharge each team’s chances? Using the cold, calculating genius of the Opta supercomputer, we’ve tracked the seismic shifts in playoff and division probabilities — and trust me, the numbers tell some wildly unexpected stories. So buckle up! It’s time to dissect who soared, who stumbled, and whose season just got a whole lot more interesting after Sunday’s chaos. LEARN MORE.

We’re taking a look at the biggest movers in terms of the change in playoff or division title probability as a result of what happened on Sunday.

It’s Separation Sunday.

That’s because the early Week 14 slate has been packed with critical showdowns with major implications for both the division and playoff races. Steelers-Ravens, Bengals-Bills, Colts-Jaguars and Bears-Packers headline the list, with several other hopefuls in action.

But how will the results of these key matchups actually impact the playoff hunt?

We’re attempting to answer that question in real time by comparing each team’s playoff or division title probability (depending on each team’s respective position) entering Week 14 with their chances after Sunday’s game, per our Opta supercomputer.

Because of what’s at stake across most of the slate, we’re expecting some substantial movement with teams either solidifying their chances or plummeting out of postseason certainty.

Let’s take a look at the biggest risers and fallers in terms of the change in playoff or division title probability as a result of what happened on Sunday.

Biggest Risers

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (+33.0%)

Sunday’s Result: W 27-22 at Ravens
Pre-Week 14 Division Chances: 47.9%
Current Division Probability: 80.9%

The Skinny: Reports about the Steelers’ demise proved to be premature on Sunday. After losing two in a row and five of their previous seven, the Steelers (7-6) won their biggest game of the season at Baltimore to take over control of the AFC North. They only finished with 34 rushing yards, but Aaron Rodgers threw for 284 yards and a touchdown and DK Metcalf had seven catches for 148 yards. The last team to win with 34 or fewer rushing yards was the Cowboys, 26-24 over the Buccaneers on Dec. 22, 2024.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) runs to the end zone for a touchdown during the first half of an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Dec. 7, 2025, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass) — ***Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) runs for a touchdown during the first half against the Ravens on Sunday. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)***

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (+18.1%)

Sunday’s Result: W 36-19 vs. Colts
Pre-Week 14 Division Chances: 36.0%
Current Division Probability: 54.1%

The Skinny: The Opta supercomputer has been big on the Jaguars (9-4) all season. They have a ton of talent and appear to be putting it all together when it matters most. Trevor Lawrence threw for two touchdowns and Travis Etienne Jr. ran in a pair of scores as Jacksonville made a huge statement by taking over sole possession of first place in the AFC South. The Jags also boosted their playoff probability to 91.9%.

3. Los Angeles Rams (+8.5%)

Sunday’s Result: W 45-17 at Cardinals
Pre-Week 14 Division Chances: 50.1%
Current Division Probability: 58.6%

The Skinny: The Rams took care of business with a one-sided win over the Cardinals and moved back atop the conference standings when the Bears lost to the Packers. Los Angeles and surging Seattle are both 10-3, but the Rams own the tiebreaker. They meet again in Week 16.

4. Seattle Seahawks (+7.4%)

Sunday’s Result: W 37-9 at Falcons
Pre-Week 14 Playoff Chances: 84.9%
Current Playoff Probability: 92.3%

The Skinny: It’d be tough to put them in the fallers category after a 37-9 win, but the Seahawks (10-3) did see their chances of winning the NFC West go down slightly (29.2% to 28.3%) because the Rams also won and another game came off the schedule. Still, Seattle did boost its chances of making the playoffs to 92.3%. Jaxon Smith-Njigba continued his breakout season with seven catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns as the Seahawks won their third in a row. JSN’s 1,428 receiving yards are the 14th-most all time for a WR through 13 games. He also tops all wideouts with a 100 route rating, which measure the ability to win route matchups.

The Seahawks are the first NFL team to do all of the following in a 2-game span…

-Allow fewer than 10 points
-Allow 3 or fewer 3rd down conversions
-Force 8+ turnovers

…since the Falcons did so from December 12-19, 1982. pic.twitter.com/tzfgz0Elbz

— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) December 7, 2025

5. Denver Broncos (+3.6%)

Sunday’s Result: W 24-17 at Raiders
Pre-Week 14 Division Chances: 89.8%
Current Division Probability: 93.4%

The Skinny: RJ Harvey had 75 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries to help the Broncos (11-2) hold off a late rally by the Raiders. The Broncos have won 10 straight games for the first time since Peyton Manning led the team on an 11-game run in 2012. They also moved into a tie with the idle Patriots for the best record in the league.

6. Buffalo Bills (+3.3%)

Sunday’s Result: W 39-34 vs. Bengals
Pre-Week 14 Division Chances: 5.5%
Current Division Probability: 8.8%

The Skinny: Trailing 28-18 in the fourth quarter, Josh Allen and the Bills (9-4) imposed their will on the visiting Bengals. They poured in 21 points over the final 7:33 to move within two games of the idle New England Patriots in the AFC East race. Allen threw for three touchdowns and no interceptions, while tight ends Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid and Jackson Hawes combined for 11 catches for 137 yards and two touchdowns.

Buffalo-Bills-Cincinnati-Bengals-live-win-probability

Biggest Fallers

1. Indianapolis Colts (-20.3%)*

Sunday’s Result: L 36-19 at Jaguars
Pre-Week 14 Division Chances: 35.9%
Current Division Probability: 15.6%

The Skinny: It really doesn’t matter what the numbers say here. Not only did the Colts (8-5) suffer a head-to-head loss to now-division leader Jacksonville, but they’ve also lost quarterback Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles injury. Indianapolis’ division odds took a huge hit, but now its playoff chances could also be in jeopardy with Riley Leonard pushed into action (hence the asterisk).

2. Baltimore Ravens (-28.8%)

Sunday’s Result: L 27-22 vs. Steelers
Pre-Week 14 Division Chances: 44.9%
Current Division Probability: 16.1%

The Skinny: It wasn’t long ago when the Ravens (6-7) had won five in a row and appeared to be the favorite in the AFC North after a 1-5 start. But now they’ve lost division home games to the Bengals and Steelers to fall behind Pittsburgh at the top. Lamar Jackson hasn’t been great of late, totaling one TD pass and four interceptions over the past four games.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12.1%)

Sunday’s Result: L 24-20 vs. Saints
Pre-Week 14 Division Chances: 66.3%
Current Division Probability: 54.1%

The Skinny: Let’s be honest. The Buccaneers (7-6) are lucky to still be in first place after losing five of their last seven games. This one particularly hurts against a visiting Saints team that had won just two games heading in. Tampa Bay did get some good news with Bucky Irving back in the lineup, but Tampa’s half-game lead over the idle Carolina Panthers is gone.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (-5.1%)

Sunday’s Result: L 39-34 at Bills
Pre-Week 14 Playoff Chances: 8.1%
Current Playoff Probability: 3.0%

The Skinny: With Joe Burrow back and fresh off a 32-14 win at Baltimore, the Bengals (4-9) hope to cause some chaos in the AFC North race down the stretch. They looked to be in position with a 28-18 lead in the fourth quarter, but Burrow, who threw for four touchdowns, made a pair of critical turnovers that helped catapult the Bills to victory.

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