Unlocking Secrets: What This Article Reveals Will Change Everything You Thought You Knew

Is it just me, or does the NFL offseason feel like a distant memory once Week 1 wraps up? Welcome to the most exhilarating—and, frankly, treacherous—period for any football pundit: overreaction week. One game in the books, and suddenly everyone’s an armchair analyst, ready to write off dynasties, crown new breakout stars, or declare the fantasy apocalypse for once-untouchable players. But here’s the kicker—what if the data has a different story to tell? In our 2025 NFL Week 2 fantasy football start and sit, we’re peeling back the curtain to give you a fresh angle that might just challenge the consensus expert picks. Ready to separate hype from hard facts and make those crucial lineup decisions with confidence? Let’s dive headfirst into the yays and nays with a dose of common sense and a splash of audacity. LEARN MORE.

In our 2025 NFL Week 2 fantasy football start and sit, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the overall expert picks.

There is no more fun time to be a writer covering the NFL than the few days between Week 1 and Week 2.

It is overreaction week. All we’ve seen is one game, which means everything we want to be true can be. And everything we think is a fluke or a mirage, well, it’s easy to make that case as well.

So, let’s get in on the fun. Here are three overreactions from Week 1. These are things that probably won’t end up happening, but you know, could.

Overreaction No. 1: The Kansas City Chiefs are toast, won’t make the playoffs and won’t have a single player finish in the top 12 in fantasy at any position.

Look, we said overreactions. From 2018-2024, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were 10-2 against the Los Angeles Chargers, including having won the last six matchups. It’s not that the Chiefs lost a game, it’s that they lost this game, against a divisional opponent they have mostly owned during the Mahomes era.

It’s that the defense, which has been so underrated during these last few years, got diced up by Justin Herbert leading to the fateful Herbert scramble on third-and-14 to seal the game. In years past, that’s a stop the Chiefs defense gets, and we all know what happens once Mahomes gets the ball in those situations.

It’s that Xavier Worthy got hurt because Travis Kelce ran into him on the third snap of the season. It’s that Kelce scored a touchdown, but also only had four targets in a game where Mahomes attempted 39 passes. It’s that Hollywood Brown had 16 targets in Week 1, and Rashee Rice isn’t coming back for five more games.

It’s that Isiah Pacheco only had five rushing attempts, the same number as Kareem Hunt, and one fewer than Mahomes.

It’s that Mahomes was only the QB11 last season, while KC was 12th in offensive points scored. There is no elite fantasy player on this team and if they lose some of their magic voodoo in one-score games, they could miss the playoffs entirely.

Overreaction No. 2: The non-quarterback with the most points at the end of the fantasy season will be… Drake London.

Any guesses as to how many targets London has accumulated in his last four games? How about 54! Did we mention that Michael Penix Jr. became the Atlanta Falcons starting quarterback at the beginning of this stretch?

Since Week 4 of last season, London is second in the NFL in targets. Over those 15 games, he’s surpassed 12 targets a whopping seven times. London is a great bet to lead the NFL in targets this season, and with a gunslinger at quarterback and a defense that likely won’t be among the league’s stingiest, 100 receptions, 1,500 yards, and 10 touchdowns is in play.

Forget the fact that he only finished Week 1 with five receptions and fewer than 60 yards, if he and Penix can both stay healthy, London is in prime position to explode. Not that he didn’t last year, while finishing as the WR5. But with Ja’Marr Chase likely taking a step back (how many career years can a player have, Chase’s might have been last year), this could be London’s year.

Oh, and for our model this week, London is first in projected targets and second in projected receptions.

Overreaction No. 3: J.J. McCarthy ends the year with more fantasy points than the other five quarterbacks taken in his 2024 Draft.

To make abundantly clear what this means: McCarthy scoring more points than Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, the previously mentioned Penix and Bo Nix. Oh, and of course, Jayden Daniels.

What if McCarthy is just a more mobile Sam Darnold? Last year with the Minnesota Vikings, Darnold was QB9 with just more than 200 rushing yards and one touchdown. That’s 12.5 rushing yards per game. In his first NFL game, on the road against a division rival in the Chicago Bears, McCarthy had 25 rushing yards and a touchdown. To go along with two passing touchdowns. In fact…

McCarthy had eight rushing touchdowns in his last two seasons at Michigan. Eleven of his remaining games will be in a dome, and with a cadre of weapons that includes Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison, and a superstar head coach in Kevin O’Connell, the sky is the limit for McCarthy.

Would it be crazy if the top six fantasy quarterbacks were Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, J.J. McCarthy and Jayden Daniels?

Week 2 Fantasy Football Yays: Players Projected to Overperform Consensus Rankings

Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Thursday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise. 

C.J. Stroud, QB (HOU) vs TB (ECR: 20, Our Rank: QB9, Projected Points: 17.51)

Speaking of Week 1 overreactions, it wasn’t a particularly good week for the Houston Texans offense. But as the legend, and now very recently retired, Lee Corso would have eloquently stated: “Not so fast, my friend.”

A road game against the Los Angeles Rams and that underrated defensive line is not the easiest of opening games. Week 2 at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a much nicer alternative. In Week 1, the Bucs allowed 298 passing yards and, despite Penix throwing 42 times for the Atlanta Falcons, only conjured one sack.

For a porous Texans line, any step down in defensive line quality is a welcome sight. Before getting whitewashed on Christmas last year, Stroud had thrown at least one touchdown pass in every home game throughout his young career. Meanwhile, following games in which he doesn’t have a touchdown pass, Stroud has averaged two in the next game. This is a good bounce-back spot for Stroud (and Nico Collins, our WR1 this week). He’s a top-10 quarterback.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB (NE) vs MIA (ECR: 38, Our Rank: RB21, Projected Points: 13.15)

Week 1 was not a fun watch for New England Patriots fans. It wasn’t a fun watch for TreVeyon Henderson fantasy managers either. Why? Because Stevenson had a heavy role in the offense.

Stevenson had seven carries in the first half. He had none in the second half. Why? Because the Pats attempted 29 (!!!) passes in the second half, to only two runs – one of which was from a wide receiver.

While that volume is awful, that overall volume for Stevenson is likely to significantly increase against a Miami Dolphins defense that just surrendered 156 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. This was an even split in the Pats backfield until the game got out of hand. Here’s betting that this Mike Vrabel-led team runs the ball more than they did in Week 1. Stevenson is a borderline RB2 while he’s still a 1a in the pecking order.

Keon Coleman, WR (BUF) vs NYJ (ECR: 43, Our Rank: WR10, Projected Points: 16.82)

Some things that we see in Week 1 are noteworthy. Think of Puka Nacua’s first career NFL game, when he had 15 targets. How many fantasy managers have some sort of remorse for not going after him more aggressively during waivers after Week 1?

We’re not saying that Coleman is on waivers in your league, unless he is, and then go get him immediately. We’re also not saying that Coleman will turn out to be Puka Nacua! But he was the 33rd pick in the 2024 draft, and second-year leaps happen all the time. Coleman had an elite 35% read share in Week 1. If Josh Allen is looking your way one out of every three dropbacks, and is throwing you the ball 20-25% of the time, you have all the underlying metrics of a receiver that could become a low-end WR1.

Better yet, the Buffalo Bills play the New York Jets this week, a Jets team that just racked up 182 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Facing the Bills defense that allowed a league-worst 238 rushing yards in Week 1, this game has sneaky shootout potential. If you have Coleman, our model is suggesting for you to have zero hesitation. He’s a must play.

Travis Hunter, WR (JAX) vs CIN (ECR: 29, Our Rank: WR19, Projected Points: 15.39)

Well this is fun. There are many fantasy managers out there who avoided Hunter during draft day because of the uncertainty of his role on offensive versus defense. But there was no mistaking his role during Week 1. He led the Jacksonville Jaguars in targets and receptions.

Another thing worth remembering? He won the Biletnikoff Award last year as the most outstanding collegiate wide receiver. And then he was selected second in the NFL Draft after the Jags traded a bounty to move up to get him. He had a featured role in Week 1 and there’s no reason to expect anything different this week.

Which just happens to be against a Cincinnati Bengals defense, that despite only allowing 16 points last week, still struggled to stop the pass. Only four QBs had more passing yards last week than Joe Flacco did against this Bengals defense. This Jags offense is much more dynamic and explosive than the Cleveland Browns. In maybe the most likely game of the week to see a total go over 60 points, Hunter should provide WR2 value.

Week 2 Fantasy Football Nays: Players Projected to Underperform Consensus Rankings

Patrick Mahomes, QB (KC) vs PHI (ECR: 9, Our Rank: QB14, Projected Points: 15.37)

We don’t really need to go back very far to find out what happened the last time Mahomes faced the Philadelphia Eagles. Worse yet, they probably won’t face the Eagles sans-Jalen Carter since you know, he can’t spit on someone twice, can he?

We already highlighted some overreaction potential with the Chiefs. It begins this week. The Eagles were one of seven teams to not allow a passing touchdown in Week 1. Which Chief is going to get open against this secondary? Our model has Mahomes fourth in projected pass attempts this week. He’s 20th in projected passing yards.

We’re talking about Patrick Mahomes here, so you’re probably starting him no matter what. But for our model, he’s a borderline starter this week at the QB position.

Josh Jacobs, RB (GB) vs WSH (ECR: 7, Our Rank: RB20, Projected Points: 13.70)

The Green Bay Packers were so dominant in their Week 1 demolition of the Detroit Lions that they seemingly took their foot off the gas pedal and cruised to victory. The Washington Commanders essentially did the same thing against the New York Giants.

Which means that both teams should be quite healthy and not badly battered entering their Thursday Night Football showdown. And if it’s a battle of a good running game versus a good rush defense, give the early-season advantage to the defense. Giants running backs only managed 13 carries for 33 yards against the Commanders, and despite an easy win, the Packers as a team only averaged 3.1 yards per carry.

Jacobs may be likely to score a rushing touchdown, but he only has more than one reception in three of his last eight games. He’s merely a touchdown-dependent RB2 this week.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR (DET) vs CHI (ECR: 6, Our Rank: WR24, Projected Points: 14.14)

Of all 32 NFL teams, maybe no team was more worthy of an overreaction than the Detroit Lions after their putrid Week 1 performance.

This was an offense playing their first game without offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and with two new starters on the interior of the offensive line, and they couldn’t muster a touchdown until the game was already out of reach. Their leading pass catcher, Jahmyr Gibbs, could only muster 31 yards on 10 receptions. The offensive line struggled to block Micah Parsons and the energized Green Bay Packers, and because of that, seemingly every Jared Goff throw was within five yards of the line of scrimmage.

Jared Goff has been among the most consistent starting quarterbacks for the last three seasons, very much in a good way. But he’s needed a great offensive line and player caller to help guide him there. Without those things, the offense might suffer.

Now, by the way, seems like a good time to mention St. Brown, who is a Nay because of the surrounding circumstances. There is nothing wrong with the player. But he was always a central figure of the Lions’ overwhelming number of offensive weapons. Each of those mouths become harder to feed without an elite offense. St. Brown in Week 1 was impacted, and the model thinks he might struggle again in Week 2 against a Chicago Bears defense that only allowed Justin Jefferson to record four receptions.

A.J. Brown, WR (PHI) vs KC (ECR: 13, Our Rank: WR38, Projected Points: 11.71)

The last of four big-name players, he’s the most divisive. Unlike with Jacobs and St. Brown, who are extremely difficult to bench no matter what the data says, there’s a real case to be made against starting Brown.

For starters, he’s hurt. He had a hamstring injury all preseason and if you think his hamstring didn’t play a part in him only having one target and essentially being a decoy in Week 1, well, then we’ll agree to disagree. He’s a great player, but he’s hurt.

It’s a simple question to ask yourself. Would you rather have Brown in your starting lineup and have him score five points or have Brown on the bench while he scores 25? I’m more willing to live with the latter, knowing that it’s a good indicator to re-insert Brown into my lineup for Week 3. The model agrees. Play Brown at your own peril.

Didn’t see the names you were after? Be sure to check out our full Week 1 fantasy football projections. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.

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