Unlocking the Secret Twist That Changes Everything in Today’s Biggest Story
Last year, the Oklahoma City Thunder didn’t just make noise — they roared, becoming the first team in the 2020s to hit 65 wins in a season. And yet, here we are, barely a year later, and they’re not resting on those laurels. With a staggering 23-1 start, their ambitions have stretched far beyond last season’s impressive peak. Imagine missing half your squad — including your very best player — and still blowing out teams like it’s just another day at the office. The Thunder did just that against the Utah Jazz, lighting up the scoreboard with a 131-101 victory despite key absences.
This isn’t luck or chance; it’s a testament to a team running in rarefied air, with a young, hungry roster that might just carve their names alongside legends by cracking the 70-win mark — a feat only two NBA dynasties have ever achieved. Depth, defense, and unyielding determination define these Thunder, who bulldoze opponents not just with star power but with sheer systemic excellence. Are we witnessing the dawn of the greatest regular-season team ever? The road ahead is no cakewalk, but if anyone’s equipped to rewrite history, it’s this squad. Get ready to rethink the record books — and your expectations.
Last year, the Thunder became the first team of the 2020s to win 65 or more games. But this year, after a 23-1 start, their sights are set higher.
On Sunday, the Oklahoma City Thunder played the Utah Jazz with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso and Isaiah Joe all out.
If any other team was missing half its team (including its best player), it would be cause for panic. The Thunder got out to a 45-20 lead after one quarter and won 131-101.
It’s been that kind of season for the reigning champions. Everything has been on easy mode.
After losing in Portland to the Trail Blazers on Nov. 5, the Thunder have won 15 straight games with only two of those wins coming by single digits. In that same time frame, they’ve won five games by at least 25 points and have an average margin of victory of 19.6.
Last year, the Thunder became the first team of the 2020s to win 65 or more games, going 68-14. But this year, after a 23-1 start, their sights are set higher.
With their talented, young roster, the Thunder have a good shot at becoming the third team ever to win 70 or more games in a season and a real chance to finish with the best record in NBA history.
Blazing Start
If the Thunder beat the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday, they’ll tie the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors for the best record through 25 games (24-1) in NBA history.
Their TRACR currently sits at 14.8. The 1995-96 Chicago Bulls have the highest end-of-season TRACR at 14.3 (our historic TRACR goes back to 1982-83), just below OKC’s current rating.
If we go by peak TRACR, which is the highest rating a team had at any point during the season, the Thunder have the sixth-highest ranking. The 1996-97 Bulls had the highest rating ever after a 10-0 start with an average margin of victory of 19.8.
So the Thunder are off to one of the best starts in league history and there’s been nothing fluky about their wins. The scary thing is, the team might get better as the season progresses.
Jalen Williams, who was an All-NBA third teamer last year, has played in just five games so far after missing the start of the year recovering from wrist surgery. He hasn’t found his shot yet and will likely be much more efficient moving forward.
It might sound crazy, but last year’s MVP has actually been better to start the season.
Gilgeous-Alexander is getting to the line more and shooting better. He’s third in the NBA in both DRIP and offensive DRIP and has solidified himself in the top tier of players in the league.
With Chet Holmgren, Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, the Thunder have three of the top 26 players in the league in DRIP. And with Isaiah Hartenstein, Cason Wallace and Holmgren, they also have the fifth-, sixth- and seventh-ranked players in defensive DRIP.
Holmgren is currently the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year, and while that is partially because Victor Wembanyama is unlikely to play enough games to qualify, he’s been an absolute force near the basket this year.
The Thunder were already in the conversation for the best defensive team of all time last year. And the more imposing Holmgren gets, the more emboldened his teammates will get on the perimeter knowing they have the ultimate mistake eraser playing behind them.
Holmgren is fouling more frequently (his 3.2 fouls per game are 19th in the NBA), but the Thunder will take that tradeoff with the defensive impact he’s making. He’s a good bet to improve his TRACR by the end of the season, giving the Thunder an even more formidable Big 3.
Difference in Depth
The Thunder have an elite trio that anchors their team but so do all the teams that get close to or exceed 70 wins. The only two teams ever to win 70 games had trios of Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson, and Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen and Dennis Rodman.
So what could set the Thunder apart from those teams? Their depth.
The Thunder have 11 players on their roster with a 0.0 DRIP or better. The way the Thunder have identified undervalued role players that fit into their system and developed them in limited minutes has been nothing short of remarkable. We’ve already touched on the development of Ajay Mitchell this season, but he’s just the tip of the iceberg.
The Thunder’s role players have been so good that the Thunder have a plus-10.6 point differential per 100 possessions with SGA on the bench. That matches the overall point differential of the Houston Rockets, who have the best point differential in the NBA other than the Thunder. So even with SGA on the bench, the Thunder have performed as well as any other team in the league.
Crucially, the Thunder are young. Oklahoma City’s top nine players in minutes per game are all 27 years old or younger. The 2015-16 Warriors had four players who were at least 30 in the top nine of their rotation and the 1996-97 Bulls had six. Young legs matter in the regular season, and the Thunder have young players who are already battle-tested thanks to last season’s playoff run.
If you’re looking for the biggest reason this season has looked like the Thunder are playing on easy mode, the depth is it.
Most teams would struggle to replace the production of an injured Jalen Williams or SGA when he goes to the bench, but the Thunder just keep humming. Gilgeous-Alexander has played in the fourth quarter in just 11 of his 23 games so far this season. That kind of depth gives the Thunder a floor that will allow them to withstand the attrition of the NBA season.
Can They Get to 74 Wins?
The Thunder have elite talent up and down the roster and are off to one of the best starts in league history. Do they have a real shot of winning the most games ever?
Definitely. According to the Opta supercomputer, the Thunder have a 9.1% chance of winning at least 74 games. They have a 55.4% chance of winning at least 70 games and didn’t finish with fewer than 60 wins in any of the supercomputer’s simulations.
Keep in mind that projection models tend to be conservative with win estimations. And even with that, the Thunder finish with one of the three best records in NBA history over half the time and have a legitimate shot at the best record of all time.
The biggest obstacle for the Thunder is their schedule. They’ve played an incredibly easy one so far, which is part of the reason they’ve been able to blow teams out so easily. In their first 24 games, the Thunder played 17 against teams under .500.
That means a lot of tough games are left. It’s easy enough for the Thunder to sit half their rotation against the Jazz. But that won’t fly in a five-game stretch in March against the New York Knicks, Warriors, Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves.
It’s unlikely that the Thunder do get to 74 wins, but it’s hard to imagine a team more equipped to reach that mark. Their star power and youthful depth has them in position to make history in the regular season and beyond.
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The post Can the Thunder Break the Warriors’ Single-Season Wins Record? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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