Unlocking the Secrets Behind the Title: What You Didn’t Expect to Discover

So here we are again, folks: the Jets, fresh off a rare back-to-back win streak, stepping into the shadow of the Patriots’ juggernaut for yet another Thursday Night Football showdown. You’ve got to ask yourself—can those plucky Jets keep their streak alive, or is New England about to extend its reign with yet another emphatic win? With the Patriots boasting an 83.9% win probability and a nearly unblemished record at home against their divisional rivals, this looks less like a contest and more like a lesson in gridiron dominance. It’s got that familiar flavor, a taste of the ongoing saga where one team seems to do all the taking and the other, well, just tries to keep up. Still, in the NFL, hope is the currency of the underdog, and those Jets have shown a bit of grit lately—even if the stars aren’t quite aligned in their favor this time around. Curious about the key stats and what might tip the scales this time? Dive into the numbers, the narratives, and the nuances shaping this AFC East rivalry on the brink of yet another Patriots’ milestone. LEARN MORE.

The Jets have won back-to-back games but the odds are heavily stacked in the first-place Patriots’ favor on Thursday Night Football, when these AFC East rivals square off for the first time this season.

Jets vs. Patriots: The Key Stats

The Patriots are home favorites against the Jets, with the Opta supercomputer giving them an 83.9% win probability (as of Tuesday).
New England has won 15 of the last 16 regular-season meetings in Foxborough – it’s the franchise’s most wins against any single opponent in a 16-game regular-season home span.
The Pats are aiming for their eighth straight victory, which would be their longest since 2019 when they went 12-4 in Tom Brady’s final season in New England.

For a dozen-year stretch from 2011-22, the New England Patriots–New York Jets rivalry (though hard to call it that when one team does all the winning) was the most one-sided divisional series in all the NFL, with the Patriots winning an astonishing 22 of 24 matchups.

Given how things are transpiring this season, we could be at the dawn of another era of dominance by the Patriots over the Jets.

After the NFL’s Week 10, no AFC team has a higher probability of making the playoffs than New England at 98.5%, according to the Opta supercomputer.

Not bad for a team that won four games all of last season.

Having already doubled last season’s win total on the heels of a seven-game winning streak, the Patriots entered the week in complete control of the AFC East with the supercomputer calculating their likelihood of winning the division at 89.5%.

On the opposite end of the spectrum are the Jets, who are bringing up the rear of the division in what has been an utter disappointment of a season.

And though their playoff prospects look bleak – less than 0.1%, according to the supercomputer – they haven’t quit, having won their last two games after an 0-7 start.

Those victories, however, came against fellow also-rans.

The Patriots, meanwhile, are no pushovers, having just knocked off a first-place team on the road, and the odds are heavily stacked in New England’s favor on Thursday Night Football, when these AFC East rivals square off for the first time this season.

Patriots’ Key to Victory vs. Jets

New England improved to 8-2 by grinding out a 28-23 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday to complete a four-game sweep of the NFC South.

Rookie TreVeyon Henderson had a breakout game, rushing for 147 yards with a pair of touchdowns – the final score coming on a 69-yard run with 1:31 remaining to put the game on ice.

Henderson finished with an impressive average of 10.5 yards per attempt on 14 carries, but when considering his other TD came on a 55-yard run, that means he averaged a mere 1.9 yards on his 12 non-scoring runs.

Since taking on a bigger role in New England’s offense in the last three weeks with RB1 Rhamondre Stevenson being sidelined with a toe injury, Henderson has been tackled for a loss on 13.2% of his 38 attempts.

While his stuffed percentage is higher than the NFL average of 8.5%, he does possess the capability to pick up yards even after being hit. His average of 2.47 yards after contact ranks fourth in the NFL among the 52 running backs with at least 50 carries.

While Henderson brings an explosive element to New England’s ground game, the Patriots’ simplest path to victory against an overmatched New York team is to ride the arm of Drake Maye, especially considering the Jets recently traded their best coverage defensive back in Sauce Gardner.

Maye has been one of this year’s biggest surprises and has worked his way into the MVP conversation. His 19 touchdown passes are tied with the Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert for third in the league, his 2,555 passing yards are also third, while his 8.93 yards per attempt rank second.

His passing rating of 113.9 is 25.8 points higher than a year ago, and in the last 15 seasons, the only two quarterbacks to see a greater increase in their QB rating from one year to the next, won the MVP in their second season.

drake maye passer rating increase — **(played in 75% of team games each season and minimum 14 attempts/team game)**

The Patriots are finding all sorts of success behind Maye, but they’ve been one of the best in the NFL in quick-strike passing concepts. Their 123 quick-strike pass calls are the eighth most in the league, and they’re achieving a successful pass on 53.3% of those plays – the NFL’s third-highest rate.

When the Pats do call for a quick-strike pass, Maye is putting the ball right where his receiver can catch it, as only reigning league MVP Josh Allen is throwing a more accurate pass, registering a well-thrown percentage of 92.9 to Maye’s 92.8.

Maye also ranks third in completion percentage (79.4), fourth in pickable pass percentage (1.03) and third in in-design percentage (89.7) on quick-strike passes (minimum 30 attempts).

Maye’s first NFL action came against the Jets in Week 3 of last season, and his third career start came against them five weeks later.

At that time, few would’ve predicted that shaky rookie would be an MVP candidate a year later, but Maye has developed into one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks and has the Patriots on the verge of becoming the first team to nine wins.

Jets’ Key to Victory vs. Patriots

The Jets don’t have a lot going for them in this matchup – or going forward the next few weeks.

They recently shipped Gardner, a two-time First Team All-Pro cornerback, away at the trade deadline and their leading receiver, Garrett Wilson, is expected to miss at least three weeks after sustaining a knee sprain this past Sunday.

Those are the latest setbacks for a team that has been dealing with a significant deficiency since the start of the season – the lack of a passing game in the modern NFL.

Between Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor, the Jets are dead last in passing with an average of 143.8 yards per game. In the last 14 years, only one team has had a passing total that low, and that was 130.5 by the 2022 Chicago Bears, who were also quarterbacked by Fields.

Coach Aaron Glenn is once again keeping this week’s starter under wraps, and though New York is coming off a second straight win, Fields had little to do with Sunday’s 27-20 victory over the Cleveland Browns. The Jets scored on a Kene Nwangwu’s 99-yard kickoff return and Isaiah Williams’ 74-yard punt return.

Fields was 6 of 11 for 54 yards – the third time in four games he passed for fewer than 55 yards. What’s mindboggling is that 10 of those attempts resulted in a grand total of 12 yards, with the other completion coming on a screen pass thrown behind the line of scrimmage to Breece Hall, who then scampered 42 yards for a touchdown.

In addition to his big-play reception, Hall also had three runs go for at least 10 yards to give him 21 on the season. He’s achieving a big play of 10+ rushing yards 15.2% of the time, the third-highest rate among the 27 running backs with at least 100 carries.

For the Jets to pull off the upset, they’ll need to roll with their most dynamic offensive player.

New York’s offense goes through Hall, as he’s responsible for 884 out of the offense’s 2,570 total net yards, or 34.4% – the fifth-highest percentage by a player.

The Jets run on 47.4% of their offensive plays – the league’s sixth-highest rate – and when they keep the ball on the ground, 67.0% of the time they are running inside zone. (New York’s 118 inside zone runs are three fewer than the Carolina Panthers for the most in the NFL.) And even though defenses know inside zone is coming, they still struggle to stop it.

Led by Hall and Isaiah Davis, the Jets have gained at least 10 yards on 12 of their inside zone runs. That big-play rate of 10.2% is not only the best in the NFL but nearly triple the league average of 3.5%.

jets rushing — ***(2025 NFL average: 3.5%)***

New York’s offensive line is creating sizeable holes and Davis and Hall are finding them, as Davis is averaging 5.45 yards before contact on his 11 runs on inside zone.

Hall is averaging 3.19 yards before contact on his NFL-high 83 inside zone runs, and only the Indianapolis Colts’ Jonathan Taylor (3.47) is averaging more yards before contact among the 38 running backs with at least 25 carries on such plays.

It’s remarkable Hall can pick up any yardage considering how defenses can key in on him because of the team’s limitations at quarterback and its lack of a vertical passing attack.

However, he’s enjoying another productive season and gives New York its best chance to win.

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Jets vs. Patriots Prediction

The Patriots are the overwhelming favorite, with the Opta supercomputer calculating their probability of winning at 83.9% in its NFL picks.

These teams have split the season series each of the last two years, and in the last matchup in Week 8 of 2024, New England won 25-22 on Stevenson’s 1-yard touchdown with 22 seconds remaining.

The Patriots have won 15 of the last 16 regular-season meetings in Foxborough, with the lone blemish coming in a 17-3 defeat in Week 18 of the 2023 season.

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