Unlocking the Secrets of NFL Dominance: How ELO Ratings are Revolutionizing the Game
In the grand scheme of things, football isn’t just a group of oversized men running into each other like a high-stakes game of crash and bash. Nope, there’s an art—a strategy, if you will—and at the core of this sport lies the duel between the pass rusher and the quarterback. Ah, but how do we divine the prowess of said pass rusher, let alone the one and only Myles Garrett?
Now, before we dive into Garrett’s prowess, let’s acknowledge the elephant in the room—because indeed, there’s a precedent for such: Garrett, the man known to make offensive linemen look like they’re trying to tackle a ghost, was on the market at the start of 2025. Or, at least, he made noises about wanting out. Imagine that, a trade request from the Cleveland Browns, a team that has seen more turmoil in quarterback situations than a reality TV show! But in the end, Garrett settled with them, not venturing away from the cozy comforts of Cleveland.
Oh, he’s got accolades enough to wallpaper his mansion: four-time All-Pro, NFL Defensive Player of the Year… but, as they say, numbers speak louder than accolades, especially for those looking beyond the flashy titles.
My sports analytics hat on, I tell you that raw stats only tell you so much. Sure, Garrett’s got a 1-on-1 win rate that’d make lesser pass rushers green with envy (63%!). But when you have an ELO rating system, things get more interesting.
This model calculates expected value in mor e nuanced ways than just saying “Gee, Garrett’s pretty good.” For instance, during a head-to-head with a fellow defensive end like Aidan Hutchinson, you see the literal application of “strength-to-strength” testing, comparing ELO ratings to predict matchup outcomes.
And speaking of predictions, Garrett’s near-untouchable ELO of 1689 showcases his dominance. You’d have to be named Rashawn Slater, Tristan Wirfs, or Christian Darrisaw to even think of tussling with him successfully more than half the time. But wasn’t it just his performance against the Giants in Week 3 of 2024 that gives us insight into how foe’s tackle him?
Now taking our NFL shores, this ELO system also gives out NFL team ratings which, mind you, extend from the prowess of one individual’s matchup percentages to aggregated team performance.
Adjusting for opposition, the method we’ve honed through careful calculation and whittling of matchup data–sure to give even the most laid-back fan a reason to nerd out–provides a clearer picture of player and team worth.
While Garrett’s impact on the Browns’ defense was evident (they’d drop like a rock in our ratings should he be removed), it’s the nuance in these ratings that truly showcases the symphony of stats and victories.
Enough. So, how do we evaluate the real worth of not just a player like Garrett or Hutchinson, but for the entire NFL? Perhaps it’s time to delve deeper, analyze further, and maybe even cheer, just a tad, for the numbers nerds behind the spectacle. After all—there’s beauty in the digits, isn’t there?
Now, I could tell you more—much more—but hey, why not go straight to the horse’s mouth? Find out how we calculate NFL ELO ratings and how they could influence a team’s future plays. LEARN MORE
And as we ponder the mathematical makings of football prowess, don’t forget to follow us on PLACEHOLDER10a37cf427f81b3d, PLACEHOLDER6446f95971f2eabf, PLACEHOLDER81ea9143c0e16cbf, and PLACEHOLDERa3e142ff269809be to keep abreast with football analytics that could, just might, redefine your understanding of the gridiron.
Now, that said, go check out the original article here and have it rolled into your, our, collective pursuit for gridiron glory—mathematically. After all, in the sports world, we’re all looking to quantify greatness in its purest numeric form. LEARN MORE.
Weâve charted and calculated 1-on-1 matchup win percentages and used the data to create our own version of NFL ELO ratings that are adjusted based on strength of competition.
How good of a pass rusher is Myles Garrett? And how would acquiring someone like Garrett change the trajectory of a team?
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