Unlocking the Secrets of NFL Dominance: How ELO Ratings are Revolutionizing the Game
Aidan Hutchinson of the Detroit Lions had a higher win rate in 2024 before getting hurt, and his rate was buoyed by a Week 1 matchup against the third-string tackles of the Los Angeles Rams.
Rams tackle A.J. Arcuri has an ELO rating of around 1200 and Hutchinsonâs is 1600. A 400-point difference means that we expect Hutchinson to win about 90% of the time. If Hutchinson had been facing Rashawn Slater instead, we would have expected him to only win about 30% of his matchups.
A new rating is calculated after each matchup based on how a player performed versus expected. If you are expected to win 90% of the time and you win, your rating goes up, but not by much. If youâre expected to win 30% of the time and you win, you get a much-larger ratings increase. This is why looking only at win rate can be misleading. A player who wins 3 of 8 matchups against Slater had a better performance than a player who wins 7 of 8 against a typical third-string tackle.
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