Unmasking the NFL’s Worst Passers: Which Teams Are Sabotaging Their Own Success?

Ever notice how sometimes a team seems to trip over its own shoelaces more than the opposition actually beats them? Well, I went digging into the nitty-gritty of those frustrating “sloppy” moments—those dropped passes, bad snaps, and baffling miscommunications that make you rub your eyes and scream, “Come on, really?” Through Week 7, I’ve tallied these blunders and compared them to total plays to find out which NFL teams are turning precious yards into comedy gold—and heartbreak. Surprisingly, some of the league’s shining stars are in the sloppy spotlight, proving that even great talent can self-sabotage. Ready to see who’s fumbling their way through the season and who might just clean things up in time to dance in January? Dive in and let’s unravel the mess together.

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We’ve tracked the “sloppy” plays committed through Week 7 and divided them by total plays run to determine which teams have the highest “sloppy play rate.”

It’s one thing to get beaten by a better team. It’s another to hand them the game yourself.

While wins and losses are the obvious measures of success, they don’t always tell the full story. Some teams have been their own worst enemies this season, committing sloppy plays that derail drives, waste possessions and put unnecessary pressure on their defenses.

Miscues come in many forms. But we’re taking a look at the offensive passing game, where issues like dropped passes, tipped balls, aborted plays, bad snaps, slips, trips, falls, or general miscommunications between quarterbacks and receivers can plague good teams.

To quantify these mistakes, we’ve measured how many “sloppy” plays (like the ones listed above) teams have committed through Week 7 and divided them by their total plays run to determine a “sloppy play rate.”

Believe it or not, the top sloppy teams include some good ones, some bad ones and some that are teetering between the two. Here’s a look:

Despite ranking first and third on this list, the Jaguars and Chiefs both have a more than 75% probability of making the postseason. They also both rank in the top eight in TRACR, which uses advanced metrics and other factors to calculate how many points per 10 drives better or worse teams are compared to the league-average club during a season.

The Bears, Seahawks and Falcons, meanwhile, have between a 35.2% and 54.4% chance to make the playoffs, per the Opta supercomputer (as of Thursday). They’re very much on the fence of a team that is vying for a playoff spot and one that could miss out on late January football.

Each of their sloppiness could make or break their respective season. As for the Jets, Browns, Dolphins, Panthers and Texans, their sloppy play has them at the point of no return. All of them have less than a 22% chance of making the postseason.

For our purposes, we’ll focus on five teams who still have a shot at the postseason: the Jaguars, Chiefs, Falcons, Bears and Seahawks. These teams range from legitimate playoff contenders to bubble teams, where small errors can make or break a campaign.

The NFL’s Sloppiest Passing Offense

The Jaguars lead the NFL in sloppy play rate at 14.4% – nearly one in every seven passing snaps. And much of the problem stems from their receivers.

Jacksonville’s drop rate (7.54%) leads the league by almost two points, thanks to his top three receivers all ranking in the top 11 in drops and the bottom 10 in catch rating among receivers with at least 100 routes run.

There are plenty of examples to choose from, but star receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (who leads the NFL with six drops) has perhaps the most egregious moment.

With the score tied against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2, Thomas dropped a perfect pass from Lawrence on 2nd-and-goal with 11:55 remaining. The drive ended with a field goal, and Jacksonville lost by four points.

Small missteps like these define the Jaguars’ offensive struggles.

bruh pic.twitter.com/p19GNE75nH

— Fitz (@LaurieFitzptrck) September 14, 2025

Lawrence and his receivers just aren’t connecting, either. Jacksonville ranks near the top in miscommunications (seven) and bad snaps (five), with aborted plays sprinkled throughout.

Some of this is likely attributable to first-year head coach Liam Coen. This is his first time running a team, and it’s the third different offensive scheme in Lawrence’s career. Chemistry, timing, and consistency are still works in progress.

If the Jaguars can clean up their pass-catching issues, they have a shot at winning the division or at least earning the wild-card berth. They’ve shown potential with big wins over the San Francisco 49ers and Chiefs, but crucial losses that were the direct result of dropped passes make them harder to trust.

The Chiefs Lack Consistent Playmakers

The Chiefs rank third in sloppy play rate at 13.2%, which is likely a big part of why they opened the season with consecutive defeats.

While Patrick Mahomes looks like his vintage self this season, he hasn’t always been on the same page as his pass catchers – none of whom are the model of consistency.

This year, he has been throwing mostly to some combination of Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton before Rashee Rice returned from suspension in Week 7. Each of those four brought a different experience level, play style, and familiarity with Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid.

As such, Kansas City’s sloppy plays primarily involve miscommunications on routes (tied for the league high with 11 and other receiver-related problems. If we combine all the sloppy plays just directly associated with receivers (drops, falls and miscommunication), the Chiefs’ 22 such plays rank third in the league behind the Jaguars and Browns.

This has seemingly gotten better as the season progressed, as the offense continues to coalesce, and certainly with the return of Rice.

The Falcons Are Still Adjusting to Michael Penix Jr.

The Falcons’ passing struggles revolve around everyone getting used to quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who is starting his first full season under center.

Penix has the eighth-worst pickable pass rate and eighth-worst well-thrown percentage among quarterbacks with at least 100 adjusted attempts (no spikes or throwaways). That’s not a great mix of metrics for pass catchers to work with as they continue to develop together.

For Atlanta, that sloppiness manifests in drops and tipped passes, along with general poor timing between Penix and his receivers. They aren’t really getting open for him either, ranking sixth from the bottom in open percentage. The Falcons’ 11 miscommunication-related sloppy plays are tied for the league lead with the Chiefs.

Penix’s efficiency isn’t great despite him playing in-design on a league-high 76.7% of his passing plays. He needs to clean up his game in the margins so it shows up on the field more.

Yes, Penix has only made nine career starts and played in just 11 career games. But the 3-3 Falcons have had a mixed bag of offensive performances in some great wins and awful losses.

Caleb Williams Still Needs Refinement

The Bears’ sloppiness can also somewhat be attributed to their young quarterback in a new offensive system. Despite his improvements, second-year starter Caleb Williams is still making some mistakes.

Williams has the second-worst pickable pass rate (minimum 100 adjusted attempts) and has had the most tipped passes (12) in the NFL. He also has the slowest release time at 3.03, which is 0.1 seconds more than Jalen Hurts and more than a half-second longer than Tua Tagovailoa.

That doesn’t bode well for a passing offense that also doesn’t have a great offensive line. Chicago’s unit ranks 10th in pressure rate allowed and 12th in blitz rate allowed.

The Bears also rank third in combined sloppy plays of bad and aborted snaps (10) behind only the Dolphins and Panthers. This duo of issues is made worse by the overall miscommunication between Williams in his receivers as well as the subsequent drops.

Williams is looking better as he continues to play in Ben Johnson’s system, but the problems have shown despite the team’s 4-2 start.

The Seahawks Suffer From General Sloppiness

There isn’t any one issue that pops up for the Seahawks, who rank eighth in sloppy play rate.

Seattle has faced a combination of drops (five), tipped passes (six) and miscommunications (three) from its passing attack so far. They’ve done all this with a new quarterback in Sam Darnold, a new offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak and a mostly new receiving corps that only returned Jaxon Smith-Njigba from the previous season.

Seattle’s sloppy plays haven’t yet cost the team wins directly. Both losses were narrow as the Seahawks gave up a San Francisco touchdown in the final two minutes in Week 1 and a last-second field goal to the Buccaneers in Week 5. Sloppiness exists, but timely individual plays and defensive support have masked it – for now.

In 2025, sloppiness is shaping the NFL in subtle but significant ways. The Jaguars and Chiefs have elite talent but have been slowed by dropped passes and miscommunications. The Falcons, Bears and Seahawks are teetering on the edge, and one sloppy play too many could close them a playoff berth.

In a league of inches, the sloppiest offenses may end up shooting themselves in the foot when it matters most.

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The post Who’s Shooting Themselves in the Foot? The NFL’s Sloppiest Passing Offenses appeared first on Opta Analyst.