Unprecedented Twists in March Madness: Brackets Upended Before Predictor Rewards the Chaos
As March Madness kicks off with both the men’s and women’s NCAA basketball tournaments, it’s not just the teams on the court who have something at stake. The Opta Analyst Predictor Bracket swings open its metaphorical doors, promising to turn every Cinderella story into a point bonanza. With Thursday setting the stage with some of the tightest conference tournament outcomes in history, it begs the question: can you predict the unpredictable? It’s time to test your mettle against the madness. Whether you’re banking on the underdogs to take down the giants, or if you’re leaning on the data-driven probabilities, one thing’s for sure — the stakes are high, and the rewards for the bold… higher!
So, as Cinderella winks at you from the precipice of the bracket, ready to turn a pumpkin into a point-scoring chariot, ask yourself: Are you ready to embrace the chaos and outthink the odds? Buckle up, because this March, if you’re daring enough to pick the upsets, the Opta Analyst Predictor Bracket could just be your glass slipper. LEARN MORE
The Opta Analyst Predictor Bracket will particularly reward upset picks that turn out right during the NCAA men’s basketball and women’s basketball tournaments. Thursday’s incredibly tight results in conference tournaments served as an appetizer to what’s ahead.
Cinderella was smiling, perhaps winking at you on Thursday – a reminder that March is all about the madness.
Results across college basketball foreshadowed how the upsets will be so rewarding within the Opta Analyst Predictor Bracket for the NCAA Tournament.
There were 48 men’s conference tournament games on Thursday, and, as OptaSTATS pointed out, they combined for the lowest average margin of victory (7.3 points), the highest percentage of games decided by single digits (75.0%) and the highest percentage of games decided by five or fewer points (50.0%) of any day in the last 40 years with at least 45 games between two Division I teams.
Yeah, whew! Cardio doctors need to be on call everywhere.
Of course, the Predictor Bracket will reward upsets in a bigger way. Our supercomputer will run simulations of the NCAA Tournament to determine how likely it is that a particular team will reach a particular round. It’s not based on seeding, it’s based on data-driven win probability and the likelihood of each team advancing to each round based on its potential matchups.
For example, Texas’ pregame win probability against Texas A&M in the SEC tournament second round was only 33%, so the Longhorns’ 94-89 upset would have been worth 67 points in the Predictor Bracket to those who picked the result correctly.
Perhaps you would have gone BYU over Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament. BYU’s win probability was 45%, so getting that upset correct would have been worth 55 points in the Predictor Bracket. Similarly, Ole Miss had a 47% win probability, so its victory over Arkansas would have rewarded 53 points.
Of course, being bold only goes so far. While upset predictions offer the potential to rack up enormous point totals, picking favorites correctly also offers points. North Carolina was a lower seed than Wake Forest in the ACC tournament, but the Tar Heels had a 69% win probability, so their victory would have been worth 31 points in the Predictor Bracket.
There’s a women’s bracket in the contest as well, and we already know about the fun occurring while that sport surges in popularity. There appears to be a larger group of legitimate national championship contenders than ever. Surely, there are some upset picks to get right in the Predictor Bracket.
Selection Sunday will bring it all together with the Predictor Bracket, so sign up now and create a pool with friends.
Don’t be surprised if Cinderella is out well past midnight.
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The post March Madness is Well Underway Before the Predictor Bracket Even Rewards the Upsets appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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