Unveiled: Ryan Fagan’s Shocking Bracket Choices for March Madness 2025 – Can Cinderella Crash the Dance?

With the NCAA Tournament upon us once again, folks are scrambling to fill out their brackets. We all know the drill, right? A mix of educated picks, gut feelings, and maybe a sprinkle of wishful thinking. But what if you could do more than just wish for upsets? What if you could get the inside scoop like getting a sneak peek at a script in Hollywood, but instead, you’ve got my breakdown of the 2025 NCAA Bracket with insights from our very own TRACR model. Yes, I’ve got the numbers, but let’s not make this about statistics alone; it’s about what I can see happening on the court, based on years of watching teams rise and fall in this mad dance of March.

Imagine diving into your pick with the mindset of not just being a fan, but being an insider, someone privy to the behind-the-scenes stories and potentials of each team. We’ve all been there, choosing a Cinderella team not for their seeding, but for a feeling. And that’s what I’m sharing here, a bit of magic mixed with data, to give you the picks that aren’t just chalk – though don’t overlook what chalk can do, like Florida, who I believe might find themselves in the right groove at just the right time.

Whether you’re a die-hard fan or just filling out a bracket because your office has a pool with a prize you’d like to win, this dance we call March Madness is for everyone. And with a little help from our model, and some expert intuition, you might just make those upsets that define the tournament; you might just make your bracket one to remember. So let’s dive into the regions with me, look at those Cinderella stories waiting to unfold, those dark horses that could gallop into the Final Four, and those teams you should maybe think twice about—unless you’ve got a hunch or a heart-set on something different.

Here’s to hoping we all find that one team, the one that makes us believe, the one that let’s us holler, “yeah, I picked them,” and for those who want an even deeper dive, where choosing the right upsets could pay off big time, consider the Opta Analyst Predictor Bracket. Now, why wait to make your picks? Let’s break down the 2025 tournament together. LEARN MORE

College basketball expert Ryan Fagan breaks down his 2025 NCAA bracket picks with a little help from our TRACR model.

The good thing about immediately filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket is that you have a few days to think over your choices, do a little extra research and reevaluate all of your rash decisions, like picking Duke to lose on the opening weekend because you still hate Grayson Allen.

Opta Analyst’s TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) rankings have a pretty solid track record of showing which teams are underseeded and which teams are overseeded, which is helpful info when trying to choose your upsets.

And speaking of upsets, if you want to try something a little different for your bracket this year, consider joining the Opta Analyst Predictor Bracket, where your nailing of upset picks can be a much more impactful strategy than going chalk all the way to the title game.

Hereâs how it works, directly from the rules and regulations: âOur supercomputer runs simulations of the 2025 NCAA Tournament to determine how likely it is that a particular team will reach a particular round. Weâre doing this for the menâs and womenâs tournaments. If you pick a team that has a 70% chance of advancing past the first round and that team wins, youâll receive 30 points (100% minus the percentage chance your selection will advance). If it has a 45% chance of advancing past the second round to the Sweet 16 and again advances, youâll get 55 points. If it has a 20% chance of reaching the Elite Eight and you get that pick right, youâll get 80 points.â

So, yeah. Pick those upsets you believe in and get rewarded.

With that in mind, hereâs a region-by-region breakdown of this yearâs field, with TRACR insights and helpful suggestions of which teams might help you win this new approach to filling out your bracket.

South Region

Upset Special: On your bracket sheets, the Michigan-UC-San Diego matchup is a 5 versus 12 game. By our TRACR rankings, though, thatâs the No. 27 team (Michigan) vs. the No. 32 team (UCSD). Yes, Michigan is coming off the Big Ten tournament, where the Wolverines beat Wisconsin in the title game despite struggling to score for much of the game. But UCSD is legit â 30 wins donât happen by accident â and stepping away from the numbers a bit, just a perfect March Cinderella story, as a school making the NCAA Tournament in the first season it was eligible after jumping to Division I.

Dark Horse: No. 6 Ole Miss. By âdark horseâ weâre talking about teams that could make a run to the Final Four, not just teams that could pull an upset or two. The Rebels have struggled at times this season, but they own wins vs. two No. 2 seeds (Tennessee and Alabama) and a No. 3 seed (Kentucky). Plus, the bracket sets up well for them. Survive the opener vs. the winner of the San Diego State-North Carolina play-in game, and their likely opponent is No. 3 seed Iowa State; the Cyclones will be without their best player in Keshon Gilbert. Thatâs helpful. And in the Sweet 16, their likely opponent would be Michigan State, which is the least imposing of the No. 2 seeds.

Be Wary: No. 1 Auburn. Itâs not just that Auburn has lost three of its past four games â though the thoughts of doubt that start to creep in after coming up on the short end so many times in succession can be VERY invasive when the pressure of the NCAA Tournament rolls around â but that potential second-round matchup against Louisville is rough. Pat Kelseyâs Cardinals are not the same team they were at the start of the season. They had won 11 in a row heading into the ACC tournament title game against Duke, including a win against Clemson in the ACC semifinals. Theyâre playing confident and without fear, which are two very good characteristics for a team playing in March.

The Pick: Auburn. Yeah, the Tigers will potentially have a brutal second-round matchup vs. Louisville, but survive that and they could very well cruise through the rest of the region.

First Round

No. 1 Auburn over No. 16 Alabama State
No. 8 Louisville over No. 9 Creighton
No. 12 UC San Diego over No. 5 Michigan
No. 4 Texas A&M over No. 13 Yale
No. 6 Ole Miss over No. 11 San Diego State
No. 3 Iowa State over No. 14 Lipscomb
No. 7 Marquette over No. 10 New Mexico
No. 2 Michigan State over No. 15 Bryant

Second Round

No. 1 Auburn over No. 8 Louisville
No. 12 UC San Diego over No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 6 Ole Miss over No. 3 Iowa State
No. 7 Marquette over No. 2 Michigan State

Sweet 16

No. 1 Auburn over No. 12 UC San Diego
No. 6 Ole Miss over No. 7 Marquette

Elite Eight

No. 1 Auburn over No. 6 Ole Miss

NCAA Tournament Predictions Championship

West Region

Upset Special: No. 12 seed Colorado State actually has a higher TRACR rating (35) than No. 5 seed Memphis (51). The Rams havenât lost in more than a month, rattling off 10 consecutive wins, including one over at-large team Utah State and two against bubble team Boise State. Nique Clifford is a 6-foot-6 guard who is on a scoring tear; he’s averaged 27.8 points in his last four games.

Dark Horse: No. 6 Missouri. The Tigers got a pretty knowledgable endorsement from Porter Moser, a former Final Four coach, earlier this year. âI really feel theyâre a team that can make a deep, deep run. Iâve said that and I know what a Final Four (team) looks like. Theyâre very good on both sides. I think they pose really tough problems defensively because theyâre constantly turning you over with their positional size, their effort, their relentlessness.â They were without team leader Mark Mitchell for most of their SEC tournament win vs. Mississippi State, and pushed Florida deep into the second half with Mitchell on the sidelines in that loss. With Mitchell healthy, Mizzou beat Florida, Alabama and Kansas this season; heâs expected back and could be a tournament difference-maker.

Be Wary: No. 2 St. Johnâs. This has been a magical season for the Johnnies and their legendary coach, Rick Pitino. It wouldnât be at all shocking to see NYCâs team make a run to the Final Four, but its potential path just to get to the Elite Eight is tough. In the second round, theyâd have to play the winner of Kansas-Arkansas, and then in the Sweet 16 face either Texas Tech or Mizzou. The Johnniesâ incredible season has all kinds of amazing storylines, but one thing theyâre lacking as a roster is NCAA Tournament experience. Pitino did the best he could to recreate that urgency in the Big East tournament and his players responded well, but this March stage hits differently.

The Pick: Florida. The Gatorsâ occasional hiccup game â losing by 20 to a Tennessee team they previously beat by 30, or losing to a good-not-great Georgia squad â is a bit disconcerting, as is their potential second-round game against two-time defending champ UConn, but when theyâre firing on all cylinders (as they have been lately), theyâre a joy to watch.

First Round

No. 1 Florida over No. 16 Norfolk State
No. 8 UConn over No. 9 Oklahoma
No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis
No. 4 Maryland over No. 13 Grand Canyon
No. 6 Missouri over No. 11 Drake
No. 3 Texas Tech over No. 14 UNCâWilmington
No. 10 Arkansas over No. 7 Kansas
No. 2 St. Johnâs over No. 15 Omaha

Second Round

No. 1 Florida over No. 8 UConn
No. 4 Maryland over No. 12 Colorado State
No. 6 Missouri over No. 3 Texas Tech
No. 2 St. Johnâs over No. 10 Arkansas

Sweet 16

No. 1 Florida over No. 4 Maryland
No. 2 St. Johnâs over No. 6 Missouri

Elite Eight

No. 1 Florida over No. 2. St. Johnâs

East Region

Upset Special: Akron, the No. 13 seed in the region, is 21-1 since the calendar turned to 2025 and has a ton of guys who can shoot 3-pointers. The Zipsâ team 3-point percentage is good, not great â at 36.4%, theyâre tied for 59th in the country â but they have seven players who have at least 31 made 3-pointers (and two more with at least 11). That isnât necessarily the best way to make a deep tournament run, but all it takes is a couple guys getting hot to cause a lot of trouble in a win-or-go-home scenario for No. 4 seed Arizona.

Dark Horse: No. 6 BYU. I promise, Iâm not going to pick only No. 6 seeds as the dark horse selection, though there is some logic for picking teams from the bottom half of the brackets. The goal is to find a team that could reach the Final Four, and being on the other side means they wouldnât face the No. 1 seed until the Elite Eight. In this case, TRACR loves BYU. The Cougars are No. 20, ahead of No. 3 seed Kentucky and No. 4 seeds Purdue. Theyâre ninth in offensive TRACR (O-TRACR) and have scored at least 85 points 16 times this season.

Be Wary: No. 2 Alabama. It sure is tempting to pick the high-scoring Crimson Tide to ride that wave of talent all the way to the Final Four, isnât it? But Alabama went just 4-5 down the stretch as fellow SEC teams â all nine games were vs. ranked teams, we should point out â learned how to take punches from the Tide offense and counter-punch in a way Alabama just couldnât handle. In those five losses, the Tide allowed 110, 104, 99, 94 and 79 points. At some point in the NCAA Tournament, you have to guard and Alabama just doesnât do that very well.

The Pick: Duke. What the Blue Devils did in the ACC tournament without Cooper Flagg was impressive.

First Round

No. 1 Duke over No. 16 American
No. 8 Mississippi State over No. 9 Baylor
No. 5 Oregon over No. 12 Liberty
No. 13 Akron over No. 4 Arizona
No. 6 BYU over No. 11 VCU
No. 3 Wisconsin over No. 14 Montana
No. 7 Saint Maryâs over No. 10 Vanderbilt
No. 2 Alabama over No. 15 Robert Morris

Second Round

No. 1 Duke over No. 8 Mississippi State
No. 5 Oregon over No. 13 Akron
No. 6 BYU over No. 3 Wisconsin
No. 2 Alabama over No. 7 Saint Maryâs

Sweet 16

No. 1 Duke over No. 5 Oregon
No. 2 Alabama over No. 6 BYU

Elite Eight

No. 1 Duke over No. 2. Alabama

Midwest Region

Upset Special: Purdue struggled mightily down the stretch, losing six of its last nine games but still wound up with a No. 4 seed. High Point won the always-tough Big South by three games in the regular season, then claimed the conference tournament championship, too. The Panthers have a bunch of guys who love to shoot 3-pointers and are on a roll heading into the NCAA Tournament, with 14 consecutive victories. They have something a lot of mid-majors donât, a 7-footer in the middle in Juslin Bodo Bodo to counteract some of Purdueâs size.

Dark Horse: How about two? The first one is No. 8 seed Gonzaga, but weâll get to the Zags in a minute. The other one is 5-seed Clemson; the Tigers were Clark Kelloggâs Final Four pick on the CBS Selection Show, which probably sparked a lot of âWait, what?â reactions around the country. But Clemson is 12th nationally in defensive TRACR (D-TRACR) and ranked No. 10 in the latest AP Top 25 Poll. That poll, of course, is more about how a teamâs currently playing than what its overall resume looks like, and the Tigers are playing well â 15-2 record to close the season, including a win over Duke.

Be Wary: No. 1 Houston. Remember how we looked at the 5-vs-12 game in the South Region and compared that to the TRACR rankings? Same thing could happen here for a Houston team thatâs had a brilliant season. The Cougars are No. 2 in the TRACR ratings, but guess what teamâs at No. 6? Yep, their potential second-round opponent, Gonzaga. Oh, and the Zags have reached the Sweet 16 nine years in a row and they have an exceptional veteran point guard running the team in Ryan Nembhard. Heâs been to the Sweet 16 with both Gonzaga and Creighton.

The Pick: Tennessee. Chaz Lanier is the type of player who could be a March Madness star.

First Round

No. 1 Houston over No. 16 SIUâEdwardsville
No. 8 Gonzaga over No. 9 Georgia
No. 5 Clemson over No. 12 McNeese State
No. 13 High Point over No. 4 Purdue
No. 6 Illinois over No. 11 Texas
No. 3 Kentucky over No. 14 Troy
No. 10 Utah State over No. 7 UCLA
No. 2 Tennessee over No. 15 Wofford

Second Round

No. 1 Houston over No. 8 Gonzaga
No. 5 Clemson over No. 13 High Point
No. 3 Kentucky over No. 6 Illinois
No. 2 Tennessee over No. 10 Utah State

Sweet 16

No. 1 Houston over No. 5 Clemson
No. 2 Tennessee over No. 3 Kentucky

Elite Eight

No. 2 Tennessee over No. 1 Houston

Ryan Fagan’s Final Four Picks

No. 1 Florida over No. 1 Auburn
No. 1 Duke over No. 2 Tennessee

NCAA Championship Game

No. 1 Florida over No. 1 Duke

The confidence level is not high on this pick, if I’m being honest. Florida feels like the team that is best-suited to win tournament games when not everything is working, and that’s an essential trait when navigating this annual challenge.

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