Unveiling the Hidden Secrets Behind Penn State, Texas, Clemson, and Other Shockingly Surprising CFB Teams
Think you’ve got college football all figured out? Well, think again. Just as the leaves change and the chill creeps in, the 2025 college football season has thrown us a curveball or five. The preseason favorites are stumbling, fan favorites are flaring up in unexpected ways, and a few underdogs are barking louder than anyone saw coming. With the season roughly halfway done, it’s high time to peel back the curtain and ask: what truths are hiding behind the scoreboard — and which teams are simply fooling us? From Penn State’s unexpected nosedive to Virginia’s promising rise, we’re diving into five of the most jaw-dropping stories so far. Spoiler alert: not all surprises are good, and not all heartbreaks are bleak. Ready to get the inside scoop on the shocks that are shaking up college football this fall? LEARN MORE.
We think we know a lot about college football. Then the season starts. Here are the five most surprising teams of the first half of 2025.
With apologies for reminding you how quickly autumn goes by, the college football season hits roughly its halfway point this weekend.
In a 12-game regular season, the halfway point is a reasonable time to take stock: How is the season lying to us? What deep truths is it revealing? How can we tell them apart?
The preseason No. 2 team is already out of the Associated Press Top 25 altogether. In fact, three consensus playoff teams are now on the brink of (or have already achieved) elimination from that event.
Meanwhile, the University of Virginia has a real shot to play for the ACC title … in football.
Let’s talk about five surprising teams – three in a bad way, two in a good way.
College Football’s Most Surprising Teams
Bad Surprise: Penn State
Record: 3-2 (0-2 Big Ten)
What I thought this team would be: The national champion. I loved Penn State coming into this year, and in my defense, there was a lot to love. The offense brought back a third-year starting QB who was at least serviceable, two good running backs, and most of a sturdy line.
Its biggest problem was a lack of good wide receivers, but the Nittany Lions added three of them in the transfer portal. The defense returned a big handful of great players and even swapped in arguably the best coordinator in the sport in Jim Knowles.
The offense and defense had each lost their best player (TE Tyler Warren, edge Abdul Carter) from last year’s playoff semifinalists, but there was more than enough on hand to think Penn State would get over the hump.
2025 Preseason: Big Ten Projected Records
What this team has actually been: A disaster. Penn State looked iffy in three games against unserious opponents to start the year, then sleepwalked on offense for the first three quarters against an elite Oregon team. A brief wakeup in the fourth quarter of that game gave way to a crippling interception from the right hand of Drew Allar in overtime, furthering Penn State’s dry spell against top-10 opponents.
Things then got way, way out of hand in Week 6, when the program took one of the worst losses in college football history to UCLA. The Lions are now unranked, their playoff hopes are on life support, and James Franklin’s future in this job is a fair question.
What’s the truth? Penn State isn’t close to what I thought they were. The defense has generated a roughly average 33.3% pressure rate despite having multiple future NFL pass rushers in the mix, led by Dani Dennis-Sutton.
The unit is almost exactly average for a Power Four team in success rate (36.5%) and explosive play rate (5.8%) allowed, despite playing four of its five games against non-power opponents and a UCLA team that would not be competitive in the Big Sky this year. (Explosive play rate is the percentage of plays that go for 15 yards or more.)
The offense wasn’t the problem against UCLA, but it didn’t have juice against Oregon, and if Allar is going to make any improvements before he goes to the NFL, he hasn’t indicated what they will be.
Good Surprise: Virginia
Record: 5-1 (3-0 ACC)
What I thought this team would be: Middle class to lower-middle class in the ACC. A cut above the worst teams in the league (hello, Stanford!) but not so good that I felt confident head coach Tony Elliott would keep his job.
What this team has actually been: A mix of good and lucky. The UVA offense, behind transfer QB Chandler Morris, has been one of the most improved units in the country. Morris has thrown a sack or been intercepted on 3.9% of his drop backs, one of the game’s lowest rates. (Oregon’s Dante Moore leads at 1.3%.) The defense has been mediocre but good enough to keep its head above water in shootouts against Florida State (in overtime) and Louisville.
What’s the truth? Does it matter? UVA isn’t a great team, but someone’s got to play Miami in the ACC Championship, and the Hoos are 3-0 in the league with these games left: at North Carolina, at Cal, Wake Forest, at Duke, and Virginia Tech. They should be favored in all of those games except the trip to Durham, and they have tiebreakers against FSU and Louisville already in the bank. Let’s just see how this one develops.
Bad Surprise: Texas
Record: 3-2 (0-1 SEC)
What I thought this team would be: A shoo-in for the College Football Playoff and probably a participant, at least, in the SEC Championship.
What this team has actually been: On offense, shockingly mediocre. On defense, elite, but not good enough to overcome the Arch Manning-led offense that has scored touchdowns on a miserable 17% of its drives in two power-conference games.
It hasn’t been all Manning’s fault, as Texas has ceded a 41.4% pressure rate that slots third-worst in the Power Four. There have even been some encouraging big-play signs, as Texas’s 15.5% explosive pass-play rate is one of the nation’s best marks. But you’ve seen Manning take a lot of sacks (on more than 6% of his drops) and miss a lot of throws you’d expect him to make. Manning’s 69.4% well-thrown rate is second-to-last among SEC quarterbacks, only leading Kentucky’s recently elevated backup, Cutter Boley.
It’s been bad.
What’s the truth? I think Texas will get better results out of Manning as he plays more games, but that’s not the same thing as “becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the sport,” as millions of people expected he would do this season. The Longhorns can probably drop one more game, if it’s the right one, and still make the playoff at 9-3. But at this point, they’re an underdog.
Good Surprise: Old Dominion
Record: 4-1 (1-0 Sun Belt)
What I thought this team would be: Mediocre enough to get coach Ricky Rahne fired. The Monarchs hadn’t won more than six games in Rahne’s first four seasons. Their best player, linebacker Jason Henderson, had missed almost all of last year with an injury. Their offense had shuffled through quarterbacks. There was no clear reason for hope.
What this team has actually been: Great! Henderson’s medical retirement has been the only sad thing about this ODU season. The Monarchs destroyed Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, a beating so comprehensive that Tech fired Brent Pry the next day.
The defense has yet to give up more than 27 points in a game and has kept three opponents, including Liberty and Coastal Carolina, to seven each. QB Colton Joseph has been a revelation, averaging an absurd 10.5 yards on 40 designed carries and averaging 14 air yards per throw, both tops in FBS.
What’s the truth? This is real. ODU has a running game that almost nobody in the Group of Five could hope to stop. A Week 8 visit to JMU will be the Sun Belt’s game of the year.
Bad Surprise: Clemson
Record: 2-3 (1-2 ACC)
What I thought this team would be: One part of a two-team race for the ACC, next to Miami, as well as a playoff team for the second year in a row. Dabo Swinney even made a small handful of transfer portal additions after ignoring the portal in the past. Clemson looked to be modernizing.
What this team has actually been: A disaster, albeit one briefly interrupted by getting to play Bill Belichick’s North Carolina last weekend. Cade Klubnik has the ACC’s best well-thrown rate (87.5%) while avoiding picks and sacks. Though those stats don’t tell his whole story, I don’t think he’s the problem as much as Clemson’s lousy run game.
Clemson barely generates any rushing chunk plays (3.2% explosive rate) and has a hard time even staying on schedule, with a 38.8% run success rate that’s in a cluster near the bottom of the ACC. The offensive line gets limited push, and Clemson backs average just 2.7 yards before contact, compared to an ACC average of 3.3.
The defense has been generally OK, but it’s had too many brief letdowns at bad times. A series of backbreaking connections between Syracuse QB Steve Angeli and receiver Johntay Cook in a Week 4 loss will be indelible images of this Clemson season.
What’s the truth? It’s bad. Clemson’s defensive front isn’t as punishing as I thought it would be, the offensive line is a consistent problem, and Klubnik is serviceable on a team that’s otherwise clicking, but not on a team that needs a savior. Clemson has already booked its fifth year in a row with at least three losses. A bowl game is likely but not a certainty.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post Penn State, Texas, Clemson and More: The Truth in Five Shocking CFB Teams appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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