Unveiling the Surprising Accuracy Stats That Could Redefine NFL Draft Quarterback Favorites

In the high-stakes world of the NFL Draft, selecting a quarterback often feels like buying a ticket to a rollercoaster ride—thrilling but wildly unpredictable. Given the hefty financial investments involved, the age-old warning of “buyer beware” couldn’t ring truer. But what if there’s a silver bullet? Could college passing accuracy be the crystal ball that hints at future success under those bright NFL stadium lights? As we peer into the 2025 quarterback class, it’s this very question that guides us through a nuanced ranking—not one pegged on potential or hype, but laser-focused on a single, telling metric: how precisely these young guns placed the ball back in college. Sure, there are exceptions that make the journey as thrilling as a shootout at the OK Corral (hello, Josh Allen!), yet accuracy remains a valuable compass amid the chaos. So buckle up as we break down the top-eight QBs you’ll be hearing about in Green Bay, sorted by the purity of their passing game—a key skill that could separate hopefuls from true NFL starters. Curious which prospects flipped the script with pinpoint throws and who left the ball bouncing off receivers’ hands? Let’s dive in and get to the core of what really matters when a quarterback lets that pigskin fly. LEARN MORE.

Given the high financial investment, it’s often “buyer beware” with selecting quarterbacks in the NFL Draft. Passing accuracy in college can be telling for success at the next level, so we’re looking at those numbers to measure up the top QBs in the 2025 class of prospects.

Some advice for general managers who are considering drafting a quarterback in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft is simple: Think long and hard about how badly you need one. 

After deep reflection, several teams will decide to go all in.

As a service to those front offices, Opta Analyst offers this ranking of the consensus top-eight quarterbacks in the draft class.

It’s not an overarching ranking of potential or each player’s likelihood of reaching it. Drafting a quarterback can be like throwing darts at a moving board, so this a ranking of eight 2025 quarterbacks by one specific criterion: How accurate were they in college?

Historically, college accuracy has been a pretty nice precondition of NFL success, though 2018 draftee Josh Allen proved there can be emphatic exceptions to even that pretty safe, noncontroversial rule. There’s no one number to perfectly capture a quarterback’s accuracy, but with help from the data, we can get a nice mosaic.

While all of the draft-class QBs have questions and uncertainty leading up to this week’s festivities in Green Bay, Wisconsin, here’s how I rank the elite prospects on that most essential of quarterbacking traits: Knowing where the ball is going when it flies out of his hand.  

1. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado 

It’s a bit hard to evaluate Sanders’ case. He played behind a sieve of an offensive line and took 42 sacks last season, 10 more than any other QB in the top eight. Some of that is just a matter of volume, as Sanders took more drop backs than anybody else on this list.

But even on a rate basis, Sanders took more frequent sacks (8.1% of drop backs) and allowed sacks on more of his pressured drop backs (22.5%) than anyone else here. He took 21 sacks on drop backs of at least 2.5 seconds – four more than anybody else appearing regularly on draft boards this year. 

Click on the Shedeur Sanders card to flip to the back.

Will Sanders solve his sack problem? It’s debatable. Teams that pick in the top four of the draft, when Sanders is expected to hear his name, usually don’t offer world-class pass protection. 

But on the strict matter of throwing the ball accurately, Sanders stacks up as the best in the class. His 77.3 well-thrown percentage on throws 5 yards or more downfield and 3.31% pickable pass rate on those throws are among the best of the consensus top-eight QBs. (Here’s where the eight QBs land in the top 130 on the consensus big board.)

Sanders made 77 throws of 20 or more yards, and we graded zero as pickable. When throwing from a planted posture rather than on the run, Sanders’ 81.0% well-thrown rate was No. 2 in the draft class. 

If you take “accuracy” to mean command of where the ball is going and a keen sense of not throwing it to the other team, Sanders has been the most accurate option. 

2. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss 

Dart’s 83.2% well-thrown rate overall is among the best in this group. His 80.4% well-thrown rate on passes that reach the line of scrimmage or beyond also ranks high, and it’s the same on throws 5 and 10 yards downfield.

Across a wider range of air yardage than any of his peers, Dart reliably put the ball in spots where his receivers had a high probability of catching it. He was the only FBS QB to post a well-thrown rate above 83% while averaging 11 or more air yards per atttempt (min. 150 attempts).

(Click on the Jaxson Dart card to flip to the back)

Also likely of interest to teams: Dart is an effective runner on both designed carries and scrambles. His 5.47-yard average on 57 designed runs in Lane Kiffin’s offense last season made him the most effective designed runner of the draftable quarterbacks. His 6.87-yard average on 45 scrambles made him a more productive scrambler than anyone except Miami’s Cam Ward, who did it a bit less often.

Speaking of whom…

3. Cam Ward, Miami (FL)

Ward is a lightning bolt, as demonstrated by countless highlights and also numbers that make it clear how hard he is to tackle when plays have broken down. His 8.86 yards per scramble led the class, and his 4.8% sack rate per drop back was above average.

He preferred to deal in large bills as a passer, averaging 9.7 air yards (class average: 8.8) and throwing 71 passes of 20+ yards, the fourth most in the FBS.  

The team that drafts Ward will be doing it on potential, and that’ll be fine. I’d do it, too.

(Click on the Cam Ward card to flip to the back)

But this is an accuracy ranking, and you do not draft Ward because he threw the ball accurately at Miami. His 79.5% well-thrown rate is above average but not elite, and his standing doesn’t improve much on intermediate and deep throws.

Ward is solidly in the middle of the pack for his catchable pass and well-thrown rates from a range of air yardages.

Room to grow, for sure. 

4. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon 

5. Will Howard, Ohio State

6. Tyler Shough, Louisville 

These quarterbacks belong in a group together. There’s a good chance they’re the final three drafted out of this group, and they have somewhat similar value propositions.

Consider: 

• Their topline accuracy numbers are all similar enough. On throws 5+ yards downfield, Howard, Gabriel and Shough ranked fourth, fifth, and sixth, respectively, in well-thrown rate. 
• Howard lived more dangerously than the other two, with a 4.96% pickable rate on those throws. But maybe he lived that way because he was playing on an unstoppable offense with future top-five receiver pick Jeremiah Smith catching the ball. Then again, a pair of ugly interceptions against Michigan did cost the Buckeyes that game and nearly wrecked their season. 
• Howard and Shough were the best in the class at avoiding sacks, with sack per pressure rates between 9.4% and 10.1%, respectively. 
• Gabriel averaged a mere 6.9 air yards per attempt, easily the shortest depth of target among draft prospects. But that sounds a lot like Bo Nix at Oregon in 2023, and Nix had a great rookie year with the Denver Broncos. Maybe you’re a believer the latest Ducks super senior can be something, too .

Probably, none of these three QBs will be an NFL starter. 

7. Jalen Milroe, Alabama

Milroe is a tremendous ball carrier who will need to make huge accuracy strides to stick on a high level. On throws 5+ yards downfield, Milroe’s 71.0% well-thrown rate brings up the rear of the group, and the data charted him at a 4.37% pickable pass rate on such throws.

The people who believe in Milroe will maintain he’ll improve in these areas. Nobody would confuse him with a pinpoint passer at Alabama. 

8. Quinn Ewers, Texas

Overall, Ewers’ 83.2% well-thrown rate tied Dart for the second best of the group. But Ewers sinks like a rock to 77.8% on throws that reached the line of scrimmage.

Red flags are flying everywhere. It’s not that Ewers was about to get benched at Texas in favor of Arch Manning and had to make a decision between the transfer portal and the NFL Draft. Manning’s time was coming no matter what. But Ewers’ inclination to make dangerous, off-target throws could’ve crippled Texas’ 2024 season long before the Longhorns reached a playoff semifinal against Ohio State. 

On throws 5+ yards downfield, Ewers’ 9.38% pickable pass rate was the second-worst mark in the FBS (min. 150 attempts). Maybe it wasn’t all his fault: Texas didn’t have a bunch of game-breaking receivers, and Ewers’ 63.4% open target rate on those throws was also one of the lowest in the nation.

Still, Ewers put his hand on a hot stove frequently, and his throws only got iffier (even relative to his peers) as they got longer. On balls 10+ yards downfield, Ewers posted a 12.0% pickable rate. No one else in this ranking had a rate higher than 6.18% on those throws.

Ewers checked down on 10.7% of his attempts, also more than any of his peers here, and there’s a good case he should have been checking down even more. 

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