Unveiling the Surprising Accuracy Stats That Could Redefine NFL Draft Quarterback Favorites
Ward is solidly in the middle of the pack for his catchable pass and well-thrown rates from a range of air yardages.
Room to grow, for sure.
4. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon
5. Will Howard, Ohio State
6. Tyler Shough, Louisville
These quarterbacks belong in a group together. There’s a good chance they’re the final three drafted out of this group, and they have somewhat similar value propositions.
Consider:
- Their topline accuracy numbers are all similar enough. On throws 5+ yards downfield, Howard, Gabriel and Shough ranked fourth, fifth, and sixth, respectively, in well-thrown rate.
- Howard lived more dangerously than the other two, with a 4.96% pickable rate on those throws. But maybe he lived that way because he was playing on an unstoppable offense with future top-five receiver pick Jeremiah Smith catching the ball. Then again, a pair of ugly interceptions against Michigan did cost the Buckeyes that game and nearly wrecked their season.
- Howard and Shough were the best in the class at avoiding sacks, with sack per pressure rates between 9.4% and 10.1%, respectively.
- Gabriel averaged a mere 6.9 air yards per attempt, easily the shortest depth of target among draft prospects. But that sounds a lot like Bo Nix at Oregon in 2023, and Nix had a great rookie year with the Denver Broncos. Maybe you’re a believer the latest Ducks super senior can be something, too .
Probably, none of these three QBs will be an NFL starter.
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