“Upset Alert: Can Underdogs Florida and Houston Defy the Odds in a High-Stakes Final Four Clash?”

History has an amusing knack for repeating itself, especially in the world of sports. Take, for instance, the 2025 NCAA Tournament—coincidentally, it’s the first time since 2008 that all No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Final Four, and they’re once again taking to the court in the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. Tonight, we’ve got a showdown between the Auburn Tigers and the Florida Gators at 6:09 p.m. ET, followed by a clash of titans as the Duke Blue Devils face off against the Houston Cougars at 8:49 p.m. ET.

With such high stakes, I can’t help but wonder—will the pressures of a single-elimination format shake up the predictions from some of the leading college basketball minds? The odds are tight, and with key injuries on the line, this Final Four promises to be thrilling. Both Tigers and Gators are bringing a lot to the table, especially after their recent meeting left Auburn hungry for redemption. It’s a classic case of “anything can happen” in March Madness! So, grab your snacks and settle in—this is bound to be an unforgettable night of college basketball. Want to dive deeper into the analysis? LEARN MORE.

Coincidentally, the last time all No. 1 seeds were in the Final Four was in 2008, and they also played at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. Well, history has a way of repeating itself, and the 2025 NCAA Tournament‘s Final Four features the Auburn Tigers vs. Florida Gators at 6:09 p.m. ET, followed by the Duke Blue Devils vs. Houston Cougars at 8:49 p.m. ET on Saturday night. 

The odds below are the best available at the time of writing. 

Two of the three most prominent college basketball gurus, Ken Pom and Erik Haslam, make the Gators a -1 (ish) favorite here, while the other, Bart Torvik, has the Tigers as -1 favorites. Since Florida is a -2.5 consensus favorite, the betting market is baking in Auburn All-American big Johni Broome‘s injury into the spread. 

If this were the NBA Playoffs with a seven-game series, I’d be more concerned about backing the Tigers given Broome’s injury. However, it’s a single-elimination, and I expect Auburn to shoot Broome up with pain medication (if necessary), so he can play in the Final Four. Ultimately, the market has upgraded the Gators too much since these teams met Feb. 8. 

The Gators won on the road, 90-81. But, Auburn closed as an -11 favorite and left a lot of points on the board due to poor shooting. The Tigers shot 31.8% from behind the arc (7-of-22) and 60.9% from the foul line (14-of-23). They average 36.1% on 3-balls and 72.8% on free throws. Despite Florida winning the 2025 SEC tourney, the Tigers are the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tourney. 

Also, UF’s half-court offense has been brutal in this tournament. The Gators have been bailed out by All-American guard Walter Clayton, and their offense looks good when it gets out in transition. Nonetheless, Auburn should be able to control the pace, since it has better offensive and defensive turnover rates. 

Finally, the Tigers have a more impressive resume and have been more profitable in the Big Dance. Auburn beat the Houston Cougars in a “semi-away” game at the Toyota Center in Houston during the regular season and has covered the last three NCAA tourney games. In contrast, Florida is 1-3 against the spread in this tournament and played a soft non-conference schedule. 

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Duke is bigger, has the best player on the floor (Cooper Flagg), and has a better shot profile. According to Ken Pom, the Blue Devils are the tallest team in the country, and the Cougars are 243rd out of 364 DI schools in average height. Duke has a 15.4% dunk rate and 39.4% “close 2-pointer” rate, compared to Houston’s 6.3% dunk rate and 24.2% “close 2-pointer” rate, per Bart Torvik. 

Furthermore, the Blue Devils have a 15.7% “farther 2-point” attempt rate and force more long-mid-range jumpers, which is the most inefficient shot in basketball. The Cougars, on the other hand, have a 41.1% “farther 2-point” attempt rate. They are 318th nationally in defensive 3-point attempt rate, and Duke is eighth in 3-point percentage in the country. 

Houston’s best chance of pulling off an upset is by turning this into a football game. Yet, there is a better chance the refs will call everything than “let them play”. They are more worried about missing a call than ruining a game with too many whistles. The Blue Devils are 17th in defensive free-throw-attempt rate (FT%), and the Cougars are 327th in offensive FT%, according to Ken Pom. 

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