Upset Alert: Dark Horse Teams Poised to Conquer March Madness in 2025?
The NCAA men’s basketball tournament should continue that trend.
We’ve simulated the NCAA Tournament thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster). It’s a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
TRACR represents how many points per 100 possessions a team is above or below average. An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more. As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 is projected to outscore an average team by .20 points per possession (20 divided by 100) in a game. If the game had 70 possessions, then that team would be expected to outscore the average team by 0.2*70=14 points.
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