Week 1 College Football Showdowns: Which Underdog Could Flip the Entire Season on Its Head?

Ever wonder if a supercomputer has a crystal ball for college football? Well, wonder no more. With a little help from the Opta supercomputer, we’re diving headfirst into the 2025 season, delivering predictions for every TRACR top-25 matchup each week. It’s not just blind guesswork — this machine crunches last year’s play data, weighs in recruiting buzz, transfer moves, and strength of schedule, then spits out win projections with cold, hard logic. Now, while Texas, Ohio State, Penn State, Alabama, and Georgia look poised to clash for the crown, there’s always that nagging question: will Week 1 serve up any jaw-dropping upsets to shake the status quo? The numbers will keep evolving, but one thing’s certain — this season’s story is waiting to be told, play by play. LEARN MORE.

With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re providing predictions for every TRACR top-25 game each week throughout the 2025 college football season.

As always, our Opta supercomputer is spitting out its data-backed predictions for all college football games throughout the 2025 season.

In a relatively wide-open landscape, Texas, defending champ Ohio State and Big Ten rival Penn State, and traditional SEC powerhouses Alabama and Georgia are once again among the favorites to win the national championship.

Last year’s runner-up Notre Dame, LSU and Oregon are also legitimate threats for spots in the 12-team College Football Playoff that debuted last December.

Our supercomputer is continuing to make predictions for every game this college football season. Early in the season, it combines play data from games last year with adjustments for recruiting class rankings, transfer portal additions, and other offseason roster turnover.

It also accounts for each team’s strength of schedule (both last year and this year) and then reaches a wins projection for 2025. As the season goes on, the supercomputer takes into account how a team performs on each play, weighted by its opponent.

TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) is a big part of the supercomputer’s output. A team with a TRACR of 0.0 is considered an average team in the FBS. So if a team with a 7.5 TRACR faced a team with a minus-3.0 TRACR on a neutral site, the better team would be expected to win by about 10.5 points if both teams ran the same number of plays.

Each week throughout the NCAA football season, our model will have something to say about every game. No matter if it’s another chapter of a legendary rivalry, or a game we may all be a bit less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through its college football picks, boldly dropping predictions for each.

Keep in mind, these percentages will shift throughout the week (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on our season-long predictions page.

Note: The ranking below represents where the team sits in TRACR, while the percentage indicates win probability for the given matchup.

Thursday

No. 19 Nebraska 62.3%, No. 59 Cincinnati 37.7% (in Kansas City)

Nebraska hopes to turn things around in the Big Ten after dropping five of its last seven games in 2024. Cincinnati, which has never faced the Cornhuskers, has gone 6-16 versus the Big Ten over the past 45 years.

The Opta supercomputer thinks highly of Nebraska, giving them 8.4 projected wins. It has the Bearcats finishing 6-6.

Friday

No. 15 Auburn 51.1%, at No. 26 Baylor 48.9%

This is a rare Big 12 matchup for Auburn, which hasn’t played a team from the league since a 35-19 loss to No. 7 Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 2, 2017.

The Tigers finished just 5-7 in 2024, but their outlook is brighter at No. 15 in our preseason TRACR rankings. Baylor sits just outside the top 25 after winning six in a row before a 44-31 loss to LSU in the Texas Bowl.

Saturday’s Games

at No. 2 Ohio State 57.1%, No. 1 Texas 42.9%

This will be the second time that two top-three teams from the AP Preseason Poll will play in a season opener (the preseason poll began in 1950). The first was in 2017 when No. 1 Alabama defeated No. 3 Florida State 24-7.

The Longhorns put up 34.8 points per game last season (22nd in FBS), and they’ll go up against a Buckeyes defense that surrendered a national-low 10.9 points in 2024. Ohio State was 16th in the country in scoring (35.5 PPG) a year ago, while Texas was ranked second in points allowed (11.7).

at No. 3 Georgia 98.6%, No. 92 Marshall 1.4%

This will be the first meeting between these programs since Sept. 18, 2004 (13-3 Georgia win). Marshall’s last win over an SEC opponent came on Sept. 19, 1998 (24-21 over South Carolina).

at No. 4 Penn State 99.0%, No. 109 Nevada 1.0%

Penn State has won 31 straight games against unranked opponents, tied with Oregon for the second-longest active win streak in the FBS (Georgia – 41). This is Penn State’s longest win streak against unranked opponents since at least 1980.

Drew Allar has thrown 49 passing TDs between 2023 and 2024, the second most by any Penn State QB in any two-year span in the last 25 seasons (Trace McSorely – 57 between 2016 and 2017).

No. 5 Alabama 78.0%, at No. 48 Florida State 22.0%

Alabama is 11-3 versus ACC opponents this century, including a 1-1 record against Florida State over this span. Florida State has played 33 games against SEC teams this century – the only FBS teams with more nonconference games against SEC schools over this span are Clemson (51), Georgia Tech (41) and Louisiana-Monroe (41).

No. 6 LSU 35.4%, at No. 16 Clemson 64.6%

This will be the first time LSU opens up a season on the road against an AP top-five opponent since Sept. 2, 1995 (33-17 loss to No. 3 Texas A&M). The last time Clemson opened a season at home against an AP top-10 opponent was Aug. 31, 2013 (38-35 win over No. 5 Georgia).

at No. 8 Oregon 99.5%, FCS No. 2 Montana State 0.5%

Oregon has met Montana State once before, claiming a 27-14 win in Eugene in the 1947 season opener. The Ducks are 23-0 all time against Big Sky opponents, while Montana State is 0-3 all time against Big Ten foes, last losing at Michigan State in 2009.

at No. 9 Texas A&M 93.0%, No. 67 UTSA 7.0%

Texas A&M has won both prior meetings with UTSA, both in College Station. Most recently, the Aggies won a 45-14 rout in November 2019. Texas A&M is 2-0 all time against American opponents (both SMU), while UTSA is 0-4 against SEC foes – most recently losing at Texas last season.

at No. 10 Ole Miss 98.6%, No. 111 Georgia State 1.4%

Ole Miss is 19-0 all time against Sun Belt opponents, including a 52-13 win over Georgia Southern last season. The Rebels’ average margin of victory against the Sun Belt is 32.3.

at No. 13 USC 98.2%, No. 121 Missouri State 1.8%

The Trojans have won 40 of their last 41 nonconference games at home, with the only setback being a 20-16 loss to Notre Dame on Nov. 27, 2010. Missouri State, which has come up from the FCS, has dropped 40 in a row versus FBS opponents since 1990.

No. 14 Tennessee 82.0%, No. 38 Syracuse 18.0% (in Atlanta)

Tennessee and Syracuse have met three times previously, all resulted in Volunteer victories (1966, 1998, 2001). Tennessee has won 14 consecutive nonconference regular-season games, the fifth-longest active streak in the FBS.

The Vols ranked 10th in the FBS with 37.3 points per game, while Syracuse was 95th with 28.7 points allowed a year ago. The Volunteers were also elite defensively in 2024, allowing just 13.9 points per game – fourth in the nation.

at No. 17 Indiana 92.8%, No. 88 Old Dominion 7.2%

Indiana is facing a Sun Belt program for the first time since a 52-17 win over Georgia Southern in 2017. That had been the last time the Hoosiers reached the 50-point plateau against an FBS opponent before doing so three times last season – most of any Big Ten team.

The Hoosiers’ increase of 19.1 points per game (22.2 to 41.3) was the largest in the FBS and the largest by a Big Ten team since Northwestern from 1999 to 2000 (plus-25.7).

at No. 18 Arkansas 99.1%, FCS Alabama A&M 0.9%

Arkansas has won 20 in a row versus FCS opponents since 2000, while Alabama A&M has lost all 15 of its meetings with FBS foes by an average of 44.1 points.

at No. 20 Louisville 99.1%, FCS Eastern Kentucky 0.9%

Louisville has rolled off 24 straight victories against FCS opponents since a 34-31 loss to Marshall on Oct. 10, 1987. Eastern Kentucky has dropped its last four against FBS opponents following a wild 59-57 win at Bowling Green on Sept. 10, 2022.

The Cardinals ranked ninth in the FBS with 36.5 points per game in 2024, and they’re second in our preseason offensive TRACR rankings.

at No. 21 Oklahoma 99.1, FCS No. 6 Illinois State 0.9%

This is the first meeting between Oklahoma and Illinois State. The Sooners are 10-0 against FCS opponents since 1978. Illinois State is 6-36 against FBS foes since dropping to FCS in 1982, but has never faced an SEC opponent.

at No. 22 SMU N/A%, FCS East Texas A&M N/A%

SMU has won eight straight games against FCS opponents, with an average margin of victory of 41.9 points. The Mustangs’ last loss against an FCS opponent came on Sept. 26, 2015 (48-45 vs. former FCS member James Madison).

at No. 24 Florida 99.0, FCS LIU 1.0%

LIU is 0-8 all time against FBS opponents, most recently dropping a 45-0 decision at TCU last
season. The Sharks have never faced an SEC opponent. Florida is 24-1 all time against FCS opponents, losing only to Georgia Southern in 2013.

at No. 25 Kansas State 99.0, FCS North Dakota 1.0%

Kansas State has won 31 of its previous 32 games against FCS opponents, with the lone loss coming against North Dakota State in 2013. In that contest, the Wildcats allowed a nearly nine-minute (8:58) touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter in a 24-21 defeat.

Sunday’s Games

No. 7 Notre Dame 52.9%, at No. 12 Miami (FL) 47.1

Notre Dame leads the all-time series against Miami 18-8-1, but the Hurricanes have won three of the four matchups in which both teams were ranked in the AP top 10. Additionally, Miami has won each of the last six contests played in the Sunshine State.

No. 11 South Carolina 69.9%, No. 46 Virginia Tech 30.1% (in Atlanta)

Virginia Tech is winless against South Carolina (0-4-2) in its last six matchups (1986-91). The Hokies are 2-8 in their last 10 games versus SEC opponents dating back to 2005.

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. Follow us on X, Threads, Facebook, Bluesky and Instagram for more!