Week 10 Fantasy Football Shockers: Start These Stars or Sit Them? Experts Disagree!

Halfway through the 2025 NFL season, fantasy managers find themselves at a crossroads: stick with the consensus experts, or dare to trust the raw data telling a different tale? What if the sleeper picks you snubbed actually pack the punch your team needs? Take Jonathan Taylor, whose first half has been nothing short of historic—leading the league in rushing across multiple categories, yet flying under many fantasy radars. Or Jaxon Smith-Njigba, quietly rewriting the record books with a receiving yardage pace not seen since Calvin Johnson’s prime. As we gear up for Week 10, let’s peel back the layers and spot the Yays and Nays before you set your lineup—because sometimes, the stats whisper what the experts overlook. Ready to challenge the consensus and gain that competitive edge? LEARN MORE

In our 2025 NFL Week 10 fantasy football start and sit, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the overall expert picks.

We’re halfway through the season, so let’s do a quick deep dive on fantasy’s two most valuable players throughout nine weeks before we get to the Yays and Nays.

Jonathan Taylor

He had his first poor performance of the season last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and maybe it’s no surprise that it led to (coincided with?) quarterback Daniel Jones’ worst game as an Indianapolis Colt. But zoom out, and what a first half it was for Taylor as the engine of a historic Colts offense.

Let’s start with the basics. He leads the NFL in rushing yards, yards per carry and rushing touchdowns. That has not happened over the course of a full season this century (shoutout Terrell Davis). He has 12 touchdowns through nine games, putting him on pace for more than 20 rushing touchdowns. That has not happened since LaDanian Tomlinson had his historic 2006 season, with 28 rushing touchdowns (and three receiving and two passing touchdowns for good measure).

Taylor also leads the NFL in yards per carry before contact and is first by a mile in forced missed and broken tackles. Oh, and he has four games this season already with at least three touchdowns. And that has not happened since Tomlinson’s 2006 season either. His first half was historic, and he was barely drafted as a top-10 running back. You could not have made a more valuable pick in the second or third round of your fantasy draft.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

But, if the season ended today, Smith-Njigba would probably win the unofficial award for fantasy’s most valuable player. He has exactly one game this season with fewer than 18 PPR points. He recorded at least 22 PPR points in each of his last four games, on the strength of eight receptions and 120 or more receiving yards in each and every one.

Through nine weeks, Smith-Njigba is averaging 118.5 receiving yards per game. Puka Nacua is the only other player above 93 receiving yards per game. The last player to average at least 118 receiving yards per game? That would be Calvin Johnson when he set the record for receiving yards in a season. Maybe most impressively though, JSN is only fifth in the NFL in receptions. Instead, he leads the NFL in catches of 25+ yards, and his 701 yards at the catch point are over 150 more than the next closest player – George Pickens.

He is having a season that is reserved for typically only the very best receivers. If he keeps this up, he’ll have the type of season that we’ll remember a decade from now, similar to the recent triple-crown seasons from Ja’Marr Chase and Cooper Kupp. And his average draft position was in the fourth round. What a season so far from the Ohio State product, and kudos to his quarterback, with whom we’ll kick off the Yays. Read on.

Start ‘Em in Week 10: The Yays

Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Thursday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.

Sam Darnold, QB (SEA) vs ARI (ECR: 13, Our Rank: QB8, Projected Points: 16.65)

Obviously, for a wide receiver to have a season like the one Jaxon Smith-Njigba is enjoying, the quarterback play has to be beyond excellent. And it has been. For the second straight year, Darnold is leading a team with big-time postseason aspirations. But he’s even playing better this year than he did last year with the Minnesota Vikings.

That, of course, culminated with his perfect first half against the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football last weekend. He was 16-16 with four touchdown passes as the Seahawks raced out to a huge 31-7 halftime lead. Oh, and they’re doing all this despite ranking 31st in the NFL in yards per carry as a team.

Darnold is first in the NFL in yards per pass attempt which is why he is seventh in passing yards this season despite ranking 24th in pass attempts. With at least 20 fantasy points in three of his last four games, our model thinks Darnold has a great chance of producing another top-10 finish.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB (NE) vs TB (ECR: 20, Our Rank: RB7, Projected Points: 15.55)

The New England Patriots backfield remains one to watch with uncertainty surrounding Rhamondre Stevenson’s status for Week 10. But if the Pats choose to sit him again, Henderson should be in your lineup.

Henderson actually has more rushing yards than Stevenson despite having 16 fewer carries. But in a game plan where Henderson was the primary option, he had 18 touches and 87 scrimmage yards last week. Both were season highs.

Most encouraging, four of those touches were receptions. And while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers once again have a good rushing defense – sixth in the NFL in yards per rush allowed – they have surrendered an average of seven receptions per game to running backs in their last three games. Look for a significant amount of Henderson’s damage this week to come through the air. Without Stevenson, he’s in play for an RB1-type finish.

Romeo Doubs, WR (GB) vs PHI (ECR: 27, Our Rank: 11, Projected Points: 13.61)

After a slow start that saw Doubs only have 11 targets combined through the first three weeks, Doubs has turned into Jordan’s Love top wide receiver. He has at least eight targets in four of his last five games. In those four games, he has recorded at least five receptions and 50 receiving yards.

Of course, the elephant in the room here is that the Green Bay Packers breakout star on offense, Tucker Kraft, tore his ACL last week, meaning that there is even more opportunity for Doubs to continue to assert himself as Love’s favorite target. The model likes his chances, despite a tough opponent in the Philadelphia Eagles, of producing at a borderline WR1 level.

Alec Pierce, WR (IND) vs ATL (ECR: 37, Our Rank: 18, Projected Points: 12.48)

We wrote about Pierce last week, when he was the industry’s WR42. He was a top-25 wide receiver for the model last week and finished as the WR17. There continues to be skepticism in the industry for Pierce, but our model continues to believe in his play on the field.

Pierce is averaging 71.6 receiving yards per game. Not only is that first among all Colts, but it’s ninth (!!!) in the NFL. And yes, as is your reminder every time Pierce finds himself in this article, he leads the NFL in yards per catch, at 20.9.

There are 10 players averaging at least 70 receiving yards per game. Eight of them, including Pierce, are playing this week. Of that group, DeVonta Smith has the lowest ECR for this week, at 17. The other six are ranked first, second, third, fourth, fifth, and seventh in the Week 10 consensus rankings. Yet somehow, Pierce is 37th. Not for our model. Against the Atlanta Falcons this week, he belongs in your fantasy lineups.

Sit ‘Em in Week 10: The Nays

Baker Mayfield, QB (TB) vs NE (ECR: 8, Our Rank: QB21, Projected Points: 12.89)

No Mike Evans. It doesn’t look like Bucky Irving or Chris Godwin will be playing either. Mayfield is a borderline MVP candidate this year, but it has more to do with his fourth quarter heroics than overwhelming numbers.

He is merely 14th in the NFL in completions and passing touchdowns and 11th in passing yards. On top of that, he is averaging fewer than 20 rushing yards per game and has not scored a rushing touchdown. All told, he has only surpassed 20 fantasy points twice all season and over his last three games, he has averaged 11.9 points.

Facing a New England Patriots defense that is tied for sixth in the NFL in points allowed per game, Mayfield is better left on benches in favor of options like Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence and Marcus Mariota – quarterbacks who might be able to salvage decent performances due to points from running the ball.

Derrick Henry, RB (BAL) vs MIN (ECR: 11, Our Rank: RB19, Projected Points: 12.73)

Pop quiz: Do you know how many catches Derrick Henry has this season? He’s played in eight games. If the over/under was set at 7.5, what would you take?

The Minnesota Vikings defense is third in the NFL in first downs allowed. They are second in total runs stuffed behind the line of scrimmage, and they are fifth in touchdown rate allowed on red-zone trips. And most impressively, they’re coming off a performance in which they held the elite Detroit Lions running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to 65 rushing yards on 20 carries.

Other than his Week 1 explosion, Henry only has one game with more than 15 PPR points. Seventy rushing yards and a touchdown puts him right at 13 points for this week, which is almost exactly what the model is projecting for him. You’re still playing him, because his floor is high, but he’s been an RB2 caliber player all season.

And the answer is under. He only has six.

Nico Collins, WR (HOU) vs JAC (ECR: 8, Our Rank: WR26, Projected Points: 11.56)

The iconic San Francisco Giants broadcast crew has a famous phase that they proclaim with regularity, “ownage is ownage”. Why do we bring up baseball? Because that phrase rings extremely true for Collins and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Collins in his last four games against the Jaguars, has produced:

7-104-1
12-151-1
8-119-0
8-104-1

From a fantasy perspective, that’s an average of 25.2 PPR points per game. Unfortunately for Collins and his fantasy managers, C.J. Stroud was his quarterback for each of those four games. He will not be this week. It’ll be Davis Mills, who despite entering the game in the second quarter, only threw the ball to Collins twice in the entire second half.

It’s likely you’re looking at your roster and thinking there’s no way you can bench Collins. At best, he belongs in your Flex spot this week, but expectations should be lowered for him.

Didn’t see the names you were after? Be sure to check out our full fantasy football projections. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.

The post Fantasy Football Start/Sit: The Yays and Nays for Week 10 vs. Expert Consensus appeared first on Opta Analyst.