Week 11 Shocker: Unbelievable NFL Picks and Odds That Could Change Everything

Ever wonder if a supercomputer could predict the unpredictability of an NFL game better than your gut (or your buddy’s) instincts? Well, buckle up — because the Opta supercomputer is elbow-deep in the 2025 NFL season’s chaos, crunching numbers and spitting out win probabilities that might just redefine your fantasy league strategy. As Week 11 looms, the data-driven crystal ball points to the Patriots, Bills, Broncos, Colts, Chargers, and Chiefs as AFC frontrunners, while the Eagles, Lions, Seahawks, and Packers lead the NFC charge. But remember, this isn’t about savvy bets against the spread; it’s a raw, unfiltered look at who’s likely to take the W — and those odds shift like a quarterback’s on-the-fly decisions, especially when unexpected injuries rock the lineup. So, whether it’s a marquee matchup or a game nobody’s buzzing about, the model marches on, delivering its cold, hard probabilities without prejudice. Curious to see how the numbers stack up for every game this week? Dive in and let the data speak. LEARN MORE.

With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.

The Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way this season, providing data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.

Heading into Week 11, the New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs have the highest probabilities of winning the AFC.

The Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers are the most likely to win the NFC, followed by the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers.

For all the matchups, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through the Opta supercomputer and received our win probabilities. It’s important to note they’re straight-up win probabilities and not picks against the point spread.

Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). And there’s always a small chance of a tie (we had the league’s first draw since 2022 earlier this season).

So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks. You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.

Thursday Night Football Prediction

New York Jets (2-7) at New England Patriots (8-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Patriots 81.4%
Spread: Patriots -12.5 (as of Wednesday)
All-Time Meetings (Regular Season): Patriots 73-55-1
Last Meeting: Patriots 25, Jets 22 (Oct. 27, 2024)

Quick Hit: The Patriots have won 15 of their last 16 regular-season home games against the Jets dating back to 2009. It’s New England’s most wins over any 16-game home span against a single opponent in the regular season in franchise history.

Sunday’s Predictions

Washington Commanders (3-7) vs. Miami Dolphins (3-7) in Madrid

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Commanders 53.7%
Spread: Dolphins -2.5
All-Time Meetings: Dolphins 9-5
Last Meeting: Dolphins 45, Commanders 15 (Dec. 3, 2023)

Quick Hit: Washington and Miami are in Madrid this week in the first NFL game played in Spain. Washington has played one game in Europe, a 27-27 tie with the Bengals in 2016 in London, the only international game to end in a tie. This will be Miami’s eighth international contest (2-5), tied with Buffalo for second most in the NFL (Jaguars, 14).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) at Buffalo Bills (6-3)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bills 63.7%
Spread: Bills -5.5
All-Time Meetings: Buccaneers 8-5
Last Meeting: Bills 24, Buccaneers 18 (Oct. 26, 2023)

Quick Hit: The home team has won each of the past seven matchups between the Buccaneers and Bills. The last time the road team won was in Week 4 of 1991, when Buffalo defeated Tampa Bay 17-10 behind Jim Kelly’s 322 passing yards.

Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Jaguars 51.9%
Spread: Chargers -3.0
All-Time Meetings: Chargers 9-4
Last Meeting: Jaguars 31, Chargers 30 (2023 AFC wild-card round)

Quick Hit: The last time these teams met in the regular season was Week 3, 2022, a 38-10 Jacksonville win. That was the most points the Jaguars have scored in this matchup, and the fewest scored by the Chargers.

Chicago Bears (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bears 61.6%
Spread: Vikings -3.0
All-Time Meetings: Vikings 69-57-2
Last Meeting: Vikings 27, Bears 24 (Sept. 8, 2025)

Quick Hit: The Vikings have won eight of the last nine games in the matchup, including a 27-24 win in their season opener this year. That is tied for the third-best record by a team versus a single divisional opponent over the last five seasons (Chiefs vs. Raiders).

Green Bay Packers (5-3-1) at New York Giants (2-8)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Packers 67.8%
Spread: Packers -7.0
All-Time Meetings: Packers 29-25-2
Last Meeting: Giants 24, Packers 22 (Dec. 11, 2023)

Quick Hit: Since the start of last season, Green Bay has played in 11 games decided by three points or fewer, two more than any other team in that time. The Giants are 1-5 in those games since 2024, the second-worst record (Jets – 1-7)

Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Steelers 63.8%
Spread: Steelers -5.5
All-Time Meetings: Steelers 69-41
Last Meeting: Bengals 33, Steelers 31 (Oct. 16, 2025)

Quick Hit: Cincinnati has won two in a row against Pittsburgh (both by two points), including a Week 7 win this season. Since 1991, the Bengals have had just one three-game winning streak against the Steelers (Week 15, 2020 – Week 12, 2021).

Carolina Panthers (5-5) at Atlanta Falcons (3-6)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Falcons 54.6%
Spread: Falcons -3.5
All-Time Meetings: Falcons 37-24
Last Meeting: Panthers 30, Falcons 0 (Sept. 21, 2025)

Quick Hit: The Panthers have won each of their last two games against the Falcons, scoring at least 30 points in each matchup. Carolina has never scored 30 points in three straight in this series.

Houston Texans (4-5) at Tennessee Titans (1-8)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Texans 72.4%
Spread: Texans -7.0
All-Time Meetings: Titans 24-23
Last Meeting: Texans 26, Titans 0 (Sept. 28, 2025)

Quick Hit: Each of the last seven games between these teams in Tennessee has been decided by fewer than 10 points. It’s the longest streak of home games against a single opponent decided by single digits in Titans/Oilers franchise history.

San Francisco 49ers (6-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-6)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Cardinals 52.7%
Spread: 49ers -3.0
All-Time Meetings: 49ers 37-31
Last Meeting: 49ers 16, Cardinals 15 (Sept. 21, 2025)

Quick Hit: The Cardinals have lost three consecutive home games by a combined eight points. It is the lowest point differential over a three-game home losing streak by a team since the Ravens in 2021 (looking at single seasons only).

Seattle Seahawks (7-2) at Los Angeles Rams (7-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Rams 50.3%
Spread: Rams -2.5
All-Time Meetings: Seahawks 28-25
Last Meeting: Seahawks 30, Rams 25 (Jan. 5, 2025)

Quick Hit: Since Matthew Stafford joined the Rams ahead of the 2021 season, they have gone 5-0 against Seattle when Stafford plays (0-3 when he doesn’t). The Rams have averaged 276.8 passing yards in those five wins.

Baltimore Ravens (4-5) at Cleveland Browns (2-7)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ravens 63.7%
Spread: Ravens -14.5
All-Time Meetings: Ravens 38-15
Last Meeting: Ravens 41, Browns 17 (Sept. 14, 2025)

Quick Hit: The Browns have won three of the past four matchups at home versus the Ravens. Cleveland is 9-4 at home versus division opponents since 2021, tied with the Steelers for the seventh-best record in the NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) at Denver Broncos (8-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Chiefs 52.8%
Spread: Chiefs -4.5
All-Time Meetings: Chiefs 73-56
Last Meeting: Broncos 38, Chiefs 0 (Jan. 5, 2025)

Quick Hit: The Broncos have held the Chiefs to fewer than 20 points in four straight meetings. They are the only team to hold Kansas City under that mark in at least four straight games since Andy Reid took over as Chiefs head coach in 2013.

Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs game preview

Sunday Night Football Prediction

Detroit Lions (6-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Eagles 55.3%
Spread: Eagles -2.5
All-Time Meetings: Eagles 17-16-2
Last Meeting: Eagles 38, Lions 35 (Sept. 11, 2022)

Quick Hit: This is Detroit’s first visit to Philadelphia since Week 3, 2019 (Lions won 27-24). The Lions are one of four teams with a winning road record against the Eagles (minimum 15 games).

Monday Night Football Prediction

Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Cowboys 75.1%
Spread: Cowboys -3.5
All-Time Meetings: Raiders 7-6
Last Meeting: Raiders 36, Cowboys 33 OT (Nov. 25, 2021)

Quick Hit: The Cowboys and Raiders have played 10 games decided by seven or fewer points in their series history (13 games total). It’s Dallas’ second-most such games against an AFC opponent (Steelers, 18).

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

The post NFL Predictions: Picks, Odds and Insights for All the Week 11 Games appeared first on Opta Analyst.