Week 11 Showdown: Can Kinnick’s Giants Survive the Ultimate Big Ten Challenge?

Week 10 got us back in the win column, as Ohio State and Illinois covered with ease. We also correctly identified the Michigan-Purdue under. Our only misses were not trusting the wrecking ball that is Indiana, as well as Dylan Raiola’s injury preventing an over from hitting in Lincoln. We went 3-2-1, leaving our season total at 42-45-2.

Michigan is on bye during Week 11, but there are bets to be won. The biggest conference game taking place is an Oregon vs. Iowa matchup that has surprisingly large playoff implications.

All lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.

Northwestern at USC (-14.5), O/U 49.5, 9 p.m. Friday

Despite Northwestern being a very mediocre team, the Wildcats have been surprisingly good ATS, currently sitting at 5-2-1. As a favorite, USC is just 3-4 ATS. While that’s not terrible, most of those ATS losses have come during Big Ten play. The Trojans struggle to bury conference foes. Give me the Wildcats to cover.

The pick: Northwestern +14.5

Indiana (-14.5) at Penn State, O/U 48.5, Noon Saturday

This is the easiest pick of the week. While I’ve picked against Indiana several times and have been wrong every single time, the over is the play here. The Hoosiers are 6-3 at hitting the over while Penn State is 6-2 in that department, including 2-0 as an underdog. Indiana has hit the over in three consecutive games while Penn State has hit the over in four of its last five. I could see Indiana hitting the over by itself in this one.

The pick: Over 48.5

Ohio State (-29.5) at Purdue, O/U 47.5, 1 p.m.

Historically, Ohio State has struggled when playing Purdue in West Lafayette. However, this is a Purdue team in Year 1 with a new coach and, more importantly, the game isn’t at night. Nighttime Purdue is an entirely different animal than daytime Purdue. The Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS while the Boilermakers are 3-5-1. I just don’t see a way this isn’t a laugher.

The pick: Ohio State -29.5

Maryland (-1.5) at Rutgers, O/U 58.5, 2:30 p.m.

One of my favorite trends to follow is when a spread crosses the bridge over the course of the week. That happened in this game, but then it happened again, and then again, and then again. Just in the past few days, this spread has gone from Maryland -1.5 to +1.5 to -1.5 to +1.5 and then back to -1.5. Talk about a wild turn of events. I’ll stick to my principles and go with Maryland, but I don’t feel great about it.

The pick: Maryland -1.5

Oregon (-6.5) at Iowa, O/U 40.5, 3:30 p.m.

In the matchup of the week in the Big Ten, Iowa is in must-win mode for its CFP lives. Oregon has some wiggle room but has a difficult schedule ahead. Both teams are above average ATS while being middling on the total, so that’s no help whatsoever. Instead, let’s follow the money. Per The Action Network, 72 percent of all bets are in on the Hawkeyes, but the spread has slid gently towards the Ducks. There’s big money on Oregon.

The pick: Oregon -6.5

Washington (-11.5) at Wisconsin, O/U 44.5, 4:30 p.m.

Prior to digging into the data, I would have guessed I’d be taking Washington and laying the points. However, my research says otherwise. The spread has slid from 13.5 down to 11.5 despite 78 percent of the bets coming in on Washington. Like Oregon above, this implies there’s big money being put down on Wisconsin as the books try to even out the money, not the number of bets.

The pick: Wisconsin +11.5

Nebraska at UCLA (-1.5), O/U 43.5, 9 p.m.

Dylan Raiola’s season-ending injury unsurprisingly had a huge impact on the line here. Nebraska was favored by 4.5 prior to the injury. Since then, the spread has crossed the bridge. The Cornhuskers were already just 3-5-1 ATS and 0-2 on the road. I like UCLA in this matchup.

The pick: UCLA -1.5