Week 13 Showdowns: Which Top 25 Teams Will Shock the Nation?

Week 13 of the college football season is here—and just when you thought the playoff picture might start to clear up, it looks more like a foggy mystery than ever. Who’s really in, who’s teetering on the edge, and what shocking twist could change everything before Selection Sunday arrives? That’s where the Opta supercomputer steps in, crunching numbers and slicing through the noise with data-backed predictions for every big matchup. Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss seem like sure bets for the new 12-team playoff format, but with powerhouses like Georgia, Oregon, and Alabama lurking nearby, no one’s safe from a surprise. These straight-up win probabilities don’t dance around the point spreads—they give you the real shot. Just remember, as injuries, weather, and last-minute drama unfold, those numbers are bound to wiggle. Ready to dive into the stats, stories, and savvy insights that could make or break your weekend? Let’s get to it. LEARN MORE.

We have a guide to Week 13 of the college football season with notes, observations, historical and advanced data points, and the Opta supercomputer’s picks for all the big matchups.

There’s still a lot to be decided before the College Football Playoff’s Selection Sunday.

And the Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way, providing data-backed predictions for all college games and season outcomes.

Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and Ole Miss are locks for the 12-team CFP that debuted last December, according to college football writer Alex Kirshner.

Georgia, Oregon, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Alabama are also in the CFP top 10, while BYU, Utah, Miami (FL), Vanderbilt and USC round out the top 15 as legitimate threats for spots.

For all the matchups across the CFP top 25, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through the Opta supercomputer and received our win probabilities. It’s important to note they’re straight-up win probabilities and not picks against the point spread.

Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Tuesday).

Saturday’s Predictions

Samford (1-10) at No. 3 Texas A&M (10-0)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Texas A&M 99.9%
Meetings Since 1992 (Start of Bowl Coalition): None
Last Meeting: None

Quick Hit: Texas A&M and Samford will match up for the first time on Saturday. The Aggies have held FCS opponents to 10 or fewer points in six straight games, only trailing Mississippi State (eight) and Toledo (seven) for the longest active such streak by an FBS team.

No. 22 Missouri (7-3) at No. 8 Oklahoma (8-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ravens 66.0%
Meetings Since 1992: Oklahoma 12-3
Last Meeting: Missouri 30, Oklahoma 23 (Nov. 9, 2024)

Quick Hit: Oklahoma has won 18 straight home games against Missouri dating back to November 1968. The Tigers’ last win in Norman came on Nov. 12, 1966 (10-7 win).

The Sooners carry in the nation’s fourth-best defensive TRACR, which measures how many points per 10 drives better or worse teams are compared to the FBS-average team.

Rutgers (5-5) at No. 1 Ohio State (10-0)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ohio State 98.5%
Meetings Since 1992: Ohio State 10-0
Last Meeting: Ohio State 35, Rutgers 16 (Nov. 4, 2023)

Quick Hit: Ohio State has won all 10 meetings since the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten in 2014. The Buckeyes have scored at least 35 points in all of those matchups, with an average margin of victory of 39.8 over the streak.

No. 13 Miami (FL) (8-2) at Virginia Tech (3-7)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Miami 94.2%
Meetings Since 1992: Miami 17-15
Last Meeting: Miami 38, VaTech 34 (Sept. 27, 2024)

Quick Hit: Miami has won four straight games against Virginia Tech, with three of those victories coming by six points or fewer. The Hokies have gone 1-10 against ranked conference opponents since 2020.

No. 15 USC (8-2) at No. 7 Oregon (9-1)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Oregon 76.9%
Meetings Since 1992: Oregon 13-9
Last Meeting: Oregon 36, USC 27 (Nov. 11, 2023)

Quick Hit: Oregon has a 14-14-1 all-time home record against USC. Including Saturday’s game, each team has been ranked in the AP Top 25 in 11 of the last 15 matchups dating back to the 2002 season.

Charlotte (1-9) at No. 4 Georgia (9-1)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Georgia 99.7%
Meetings Since 1992: None
Last Meeting: None

Quick Hit: This will be the first meeting between Georgia and Charlotte. The Bulldogs have faced American Conference competition twice before, winning both games – they beat No. 6
Cincinnati in the 2021 Peach Bowl (January), and they beat UAB on Sept. 23, 2023.

FCS Eastern Illinois (3-8) at No. 10 Alabama (8-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Alabama 99.9%
Meetings Since 1992: None
Last Meeting: None

Quick Hit: This will be Eastern Illinois’ third matchup versus an SEC opponent since joining the FCS in 1981. The Panthers lost to South Carolina 46-0 in Week 1, 2021 and Arkansas 55-20 in Week 1, 2018. The Crimson Tide are 20-0 all time versus FCS foes.

Kansas State (5-5) at No. 12 Utah (8-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Utah 96.1%
Meetings Since 1992: None
Last Meeting: None

Quick Hit: This will be the first meeting between Utah and Kansas State. The only other pair of current Power Four conference opponents that have never faced each other is Oklahoma and Mississippi State (they will play next season).

Arkansas (2-8) at No. 17 Texas (7-3)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Texas 83.2%
Meetings Since 1992: Arkansas 4-3
Last Meeting: Texas 20, Arkansas 10 (Nov. 16, 2024)

Quick Hit: Texas is allowing just 2.54 yards per rush, the third-best mark of any FBS defense (Texas Tech – 2.36, Oklahoma – 2.48). Arkansas averages 5.89 yards per carry, the sixth best of any FBS offense.

Kentucky (5-5) at No. 14 Vanderbilt (8-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Vandy 86.8%
Meetings Since 1992: Kentucky 20-13
Last Meeting: Vanderbilt 20, Kentucky 13 (Oct. 12, 2024)

Quick Hit: Kentucky has won four straight on the road against Vanderbilt, equaling the team’s longest road winning streak in the series (also 1977-83). Additionally, it is tied for the longest road win streak against any opponent within the last 45 years (active streak vs. Louisville).

Behind quarterback Diego Pavia, Vandy owns the second-highest offensive TRACR in the FBS.

TCU (6-4) at No. 23 Houston (8-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Houston 58.2%
Meetings Since 1992: TCU 9-2
Last Meeting: Houston 30, TCU 19 (Oct. 4, 2024)

Quick Hit: Houston ended its nine-game losing streak to TCU with a 30-19 victory last season. A win for Houston in this game would mark back-to-back wins against the Horned Frogs for the first time since a three-game run between 1988 and 1990.

Syracuse (3-7) at No. 9 Notre Dame (8-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Notre Dame 99.6%
Meetings Since 1992: Notre Dame 6-2
Last Meeting: Notre Dame 41, Syracuse 24 (Oct. 29, 2022)

Quick Hit: Syracuse has not defeated Notre Dame since Week 13, 2008 (24-23). The Fighting Irish have won five straight matchups since, averaging 40.6 points and 514.0 total yards
per game.

No. 24 Tulane (8-2) at Temple (5-5)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Tulane 53.5%
Meetings Since 1992: Temple 4-2
Last Meeting: Tulane 52, Temple 6 (Nov. 9, 2024)

Quick Hit: Tulane has won each of its last two games against Temple by at least 35 points after losing the previous four games in the series. The only other time in the last 45 seasons that Tulane had back-to-back wins by 35+ points against a single opponent was in 1997 and 1998
versus Louisiana-Lafayette (known as Southwestern Louisiana then).

No. 18 Michigan (8-2) at Maryland (4-6)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Michigan 71.8%
Meetings Since 1992: Michigan 8-1
Last Meeting: Michigan 31, Maryland 24 (Nov. 18, 2023)

Quick Hit: After losing the first matchup as Big Ten rivals (2014), Michigan has won eight straight games against Maryland, with five of those victories coming at College Park.

No. 25 Arizona State (7-3) at Colorado (3-7)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Colorado 50.5%
Meetings Since 1992: Arizona State 10-4
Last Meeting: Colorado 27, Arizona State 24 (Oct. 7, 2023)

Quick Hit: Arizona State has scored 40 or more points in six of its 12 meetings with Colorado over the last 15 seasons. That includes a 42-34 win in the Sun Devils’ last trip to Boulder in 2022.

No. 21 Illinois (7-3) at Wisconsin (3-7)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Illinois 64.6%
Meetings Since 1992: Wisconsin 21-6-1
Last Meeting: Wisconsin 25, Illinois 21 (Oct. 21, 2023)

Quick Hit: Illinois ended Wisconsin’s longest home winning streak over the Fighting Illini at eight games with a 34-10 win in Madison in October 2022. It was Illinois’ third-largest road win over the Badgers, behind a 51-point win in 1965 and a 28-point win in 1988.

Pittsburgh (7-3) at No. 16 Georgia Tech (9-1)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Pitt 50.2%
Meetings Since 1992: Pitt 6-4
Last Meeting: GaTech 26, Pitt 21 (Oct. 1, 2022)

Quick Hit: Georgia Tech is looking for back-to-back wins over Pittsburgh for the first time since 2013-14 after snapping a four-game skid last season. The Yellow Jackets, however, have lost three straight home games in this series.

No. 20 Tennessee (7-3) at Florida (3-7)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Tennessee 73.4%
Meetings Since 1992: Florida 25-8
Last Meeting: Tennessee 23, Florida 17 (Oct. 12, 2024)

Quick Hit: Florida has won 10 consecutive home games against Tennessee, one of four active streaks of 10 consecutive wins by an SEC team against any conference opponent. The home team has won each of the last four matchups while Florida leads the all-time series 32-22.

No. 11 BYU (9-1) at Cincinnati (7-3)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: BYU 53.4%
Meetings Since 1992: BYU 3-0
Last Meeting: BYU 35, Cincinnati 27 (Sept. 29, 2023)

Quick Hit: BYU is 3-0 against Cincinnati, including a 20-3 victory in the lone matchup at Nippert Stadium in 2016. BYU had over 200 rushing yards in that game, led by Jamaal Williams (92 yards) and Taysom Hill (75 yards and a TD).

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

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