Week 14 NFL Showdowns: Uncover the Shocking Underdog Picks and Insider Odds That Could Flip the Season!
Ever wonder if a supercomputer could truly predict the heartbreaks and triumphs of the NFL season? Well, buckle up — the Opta supercomputer is throwing its hat into the ring for Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season, crunching the numbers and issuing raw, unfiltered win probabilities for every matchup. From the Cowboys-Lions tussle to the Steelers-Ravens showdown, each game carries weighty playoff implications, poised to shake up the landscape. While the Philly Eagles and Green Bay Packers lead the NFC charge, and the Broncos and Patriots head the AFC pack, upsets always lurk in the digital shadows. So, who’s the favorite to claim victory? And who’s the dark horse ready to defy the odds? These robotic forecasts shift with every injury update and on-field twist, reminding us that football is as much chaos as it is calculation. Dive in and let’s decode the future — or at least try to. LEARN MORE.
With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.
The headliners include the Cowboys-Lions, Steelers-Ravens, Bengals-Bills, Colts-Jaguars, Bears-Packers, Texans-Chiefs and Eagles-Chargers.
With several big games that have major playoff implications, Week 14 looks to be a pivotal weekend in the 2025 NFL season.
As of Tuesday heading into Week 14, the Philadelphia Eagles (25.9%), Green Bay Packers (25.2%), Los Angeles Rams (13.5%), Chicago Bears (8.3%), Seattle Seahawks (6.9%), Detroit Lions (6.5%) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5.0%) are the most likely to win the NFC. .
The Denver Broncos (24.8%), New England Patriots (22.2%), Houston Texans (9.8%), Jacksonville Jaguars (7.2%), Buffalo Bills (7.1%), Los Angeles Chargers (6.9%), Indianapolis Colts (6.5%) and Baltimore Ravens (6.2%) have the highest probabilities of winning the AFC.
So who will come out on top in these key matchups? We’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through the Opta supercomputer and received our win probabilities for each game.
Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). And there’s always a small chance of a tie (we had the league’s first draw since 2022 earlier this season).
So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks. You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.
Thursday’s Predictions
Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) at Detroit Lions (7-5)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Lions 57.4%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Lions -3.0 (as of Tuesday)
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Cowboys 17-12
- Last Meeting: Lions 47, Cowboys 9 (Oct. 13, 2024)
Quick Hit: Dak Prescott has averaged 273.5 pass yards per game in his career against the Lions. It is Prescott’s third-highest career average against an NFC team (309.0 vs. Packers/280.0 vs. Seahawks). He had been 5-0 versus Detroit until last season’s meeting.
Sunday’s Predictions
Seattle Seahawks (9-3) at Atlanta Falcons (4-8)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Falcons 53.1%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Seahawks -7.0
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Seahawks 13-7
- Last Meeting: Seahawks 34, Falcons 14 (Oct. 20, 2024)
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ravens 53.5%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Ravens -6.0 (as of Tuesday)
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Steelers 33-25
- Last Meeting: Ravens 28, Steelers 14 (Jan. 11, 2025/Wild Card)
Tennessee Titans (1-11) at Cleveland Browns (3-9)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Titans 52.3%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Browns -4.5
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Browns 37-31
- Last Meeting: Browns 27, Titans 3, (Sept. 24, 2023)
Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Jaguars 53.2%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Colts -1.5
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Colts 28-20
- Last Meeting: Colts 26, Jaguars 23 OT (Jan. 5, 2025)
Washington Commanders (3-9) at Minnesota Vikings (4-8)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Commanders 69.4%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Vikings -1.5
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Vikings 13-10
- Last Meeting: Vikings 20, Commanders 17 (Nov. 6, 2022)
Miami Dolphins (5-7) at New York Jets (3-9)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Jets 63.9%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Dolphins -2.5
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Jets 61-57-1
- Last Meeting: Dolphins 27, Jets 21 (Sept. 29, 2025)
New Orleans Saints (2-10) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Buccaneers 65.7%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Buccaneers -8.5
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Buccaneers 40-27
- Last Meeting: Buccaneers 23, Saints 3 (Oct. 26, 2025)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) at Buffalo Bills (8-4)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bills 55.9%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Bills -5.5
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Bills 17-14
- Last Meeting: Bengals 24, Bills 18 (Nov. 5, 2023)
Denver Broncos (10-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-10)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Broncos 79.8%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Broncos -7.5
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Broncos 72-56-2
- Last Meeting: Broncos 10, Raiders 7 (Nov. 6, 2025)
Chicago Bears (9-3) at Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Packers 69.2%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Packers -6.5
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Packers 107-95-6
- Last Meeting: Bears 24, Packers 22 (Jan. 5, 2025)
Los Angeles Rams (9-3) at Arizona Cardinals (3-9)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Rams 57.1%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Rams -7.5
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Rams 49-41-2
- Last Meeting: Rams 13, Cardinals 9 (Dec. 28, 2024)
Sunday Night Football Prediction
Houston Texans (7-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Chiefs 51.5%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Chiefs -3.5
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Chiefs 8-5
- Last Meeting: Chiefs 23, Texans 14 (Jan. 18, 2025/Divisional)
Monday Night Football Prediction
Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Eagles 61.0%
- DraftKings Point Spread: Eagles -3.0
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Chargers 8-5
- Last Meeting: Chargers 27, Eagles 24 (Nov. 7, 2021)
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post NFL Predictions: Picks, Odds and Insights for Every Game in Week 14 appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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