Week 15 NFL Showdowns: Uncover the Surprising Picks and Game-Changing Insights You Can’t Miss!

Ever wonder if a supercomputer could really nail the nail-biting chaos of NFL predictions? Well, the Opta supercomputer is cranking its gears and firing up probabilities for every showdown this 2025 NFL season. As Week 15 approaches, the stakes are sky-high with playoff fates hanging in the balance —will the Packers’ 28.4% shot hold strong, or can underdogs like the Buccaneers sneak a surprise? The data’s been poured in, signals beeped out, and the trends? Let’s just say, they’re shifting faster than a quarterback’s scramble after a blitz. And yes, ties are back in the mix (remember the league’s first draw since 2022?). So, whether you’re in it for the headline acts or those under-the-radar clashes, buckle up—it’s prediction time with zero sentimentality and all the raw numbers you can handle. Ready to peek behind the curtain and see who the supercomputer loves this week?
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With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.

With several big games that have major playoff implications, Week 15 looks to be a pivotal weekend in the 2025 NFL season.

As of Wednesday heading into Week 15, the Green Bay Packers (28.4%), Los Angeles Rams (19.4%), Philadelphia Eagles (14.9%), Detroit Lions (11.1%), Seattle Seahawks (7.4%), Chicago Bears (4.8%) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4.5%) are the most likely to win the NFC – according to the Opta supercomputer.

The Denver Broncos (26.3%), New England Patriots (19.5%), Houston Texans (14.6%), Jacksonville Jaguars (13.0%) and Buffalo Bills (8.5%) have the highest probabilities of winning the AFC.

So who will come out on top in these key matchups? We’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through the supercomputer and received our win probabilities for each game.

Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). And there’s always a small chance of a tie (we had the league’s first draw since 2022 earlier this season).

So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks. You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.

Thursday’s Predictions

Atlanta Falcons (4-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Buccaneers 55.2%
DraftKings Point Spread: Buccaneers -4.5 (as of Wednesday)
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Tied 32-32
Last Meeting: Buccaneers 23, Falcons 20 (Sept. 7, 2025)

Quick Hit: The last five games between the Buccaneers and Falcons have all been decided by six or fewer points, tied for the longest active streak of one-possession games between any two divisional opponents in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Atlanta Falcons game-preview

Sunday’s Predictions

Las Vegas Raiders (2-11) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-5)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Eagles 88.8%
DraftKings Point Spread: Eagles -11.5
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Eagles 7-6
Last Meeting: Raiders 33, Eagles 22 (Oct. 24, 2021)

Quick Hit: The Raiders have rushed for 100 or more yards in each of their last four games against the Eagles, tied for their longest active streak against a single opponent (Giants).

Washington Commanders (3-10) at New York Giants (2-11)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Commanders 50.2%
DraftKings Point Spread: Giants -2.5
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Giants 107-73-5
Last Meeting: Commanders 21, Giants 6 (Sept. 7, 2025)

Quick Hit: The Giants have a slight 6-5-1 advantage over the Commanders over their last 12 matchups, each of which was decided by 15 points or fewer. It is the longest active streak of games decided by 15 or fewer points between any divisional opponents in the NFL.

Buffalo Bills (9-4) at New England Patriots (11-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Patriots 56.0%
DraftKings Point Spread: Patriots -1.5
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Patriots 79-50-1
Last Meeting: Patriots 23, Bills 20 (Oct. 5, 2025)

Quick Hit: Each of the last five games between the Bills and Patriots has been decided by one possession. That is tied for the longest such streak in Bills-Patriots series history with a five-game run that spanned the 1986 and 1988 seasons.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Chiefs 53.8%
DraftKings Point Spread: Chiefs -4.5
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Chiefs 71-58-1
Last Meeting: Chargers 27, Chiefs 21 (Sept. 5, 2025)

Quick Hit: Over the last 15 games between the Chargers and Chiefs, 13 have been decided by 10 or fewer points. It is the most games decided by 10 or fewer in any NFL matchup since 2018.

New York Jets (3-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Jaguars 63.7%
DraftKings Point Spread: Jaguars -13.5
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Jaguars 9-8
Last Meeting: Jets 32, Jaguars 25 (Dec. 15, 2024)

Quick Hit: The Jets are the only team Trevor Lawrence has started multiple games against and not thrown a touchdown pass. New York is also one of four teams Lawrence has multiple starts against without any interceptions thrown.

Arizona Cardinals (3-10) at Houston Texans (8-5)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Texans 66.8%
DraftKings Point Spread: Texans -9.5
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Tied 3-3
Last Meeting: Texans 21, Cardinals 16 (Nov. 19, 2023)

Quick Hit: Houston is 3-0 all time at home against the Cardinals (0-3 on the road). The Texans have never won four straight home games against a single NFC opponent.

Baltimore Ravens (6-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ravens 52.3%
DraftKings Point Spread: Ravens -2.5
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Ravens 32-27
Last Meeting: Bengals 32, Ravens 14 (Nov. 27, 2025)

Quick Hit: Baltimore has won each of the last two matchups in Cincinnati and can tie its longest road winning streak against the Bengals with a win (1998-2000). Each of the last two road wins was decided by three points, including an overtime finish in Week 5 last season.

Cleveland Browns (3-10) at Chicago Bears (9-4)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bears 65.9%
DraftKings Point Spread: Bears -7.5
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Browns 11-7
Last Meeting: Browns 20, Bears 17 (Dec. 17, 2023)

Quick Hit: The Browns have won each of their last two games against the Bears (2021, 2023). They are looking to defeat Chicago in three straight matchups for the second time in franchise history (1951-60).

Indianapolis Colts (8-5) at Seattle Seahawks (10-3)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Seahawks 66.3%
DraftKings Point Spread: Seahawks -14.0
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Colts 7-6
Last Meeting: Seahawks 28, Colts 16 (Sept. 12, 2021)

Quick Hit: The Seahawks have won their last two meetings with the Colts (2017, 2021) and are looking for the first three-game win streak by either team in the matchup. The last time the Colts won in Seattle, third-year QB Peyton Manning defeated rookie Brock Huard in 2000.

Tennessee Titans (2-11) at San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: 49ers 56.6%
DraftKings Point Spread: 49ers -12.5
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: 49ers 9-6
Last Meeting: Titans 20, 49ers 17 (Dec. 23, 2021)

Quick Hit: The Titans and 49ers have alternated wins in each of the past five matchups in San Francisco, with all five games decided by seven or fewer points. Tennessee interim coach Mike McCoy won his only game in San Francisco back when he was head coach of the Chargers in Week 16, 2014 (won 38-35).

Carolina Panthers (7-6) at New Orleans Saints (3-10)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Panthers 56.7%
DraftKings Point Spread: Panthers -2.5
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Panthers 32-29
Last Meeting: Saints 17, Panthers 7 (Nov. 9, 2025)

Quick Hit: New Orleans won 17-7 when these teams met in Week 10. It is the only game in the last two seasons in which the Saints held their opponent to fewer than 10 points in a game.

Detroit Lions (8-5) at Los Angeles Rams (10-3)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Lions 52.5%
DraftKings Point Spread: Rams -5.5
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Rams 45-41-1
Last Meeting: Lions 26, Rams 20 OT (Sept. 8, 2024)

Quick Hit: The last matchup between the teams in Week 1 last season featured the second of 87 meetings that ended regulation in a tie and the first since Week 2, 1964. The Rams have won six of the last seven meetings at home and all three instances since 2000.

Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) at Denver Broncos (11-2)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Broncos 51.1%
DraftKings Point Spread: Packers -2.5
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Tied 7-7-1
Last Meeting: Broncos 19, Packers 17 (Oct. 22, 2023)

Quick Hit: The Broncos have an 8-7-1 record against the Packers, including a win over Green Bay in Super Bowl XXXII. The home teams have had the advantage in the series with a 13-1-1 record in their 15 regular-season meetings.

Sunday Night Football Prediction

Minnesota Vikings (5-8) at Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Cowboys 79.9%
DraftKings Point Spread: Cowboys -5.5
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Cowboys 15-12
Last Meeting: Cowboys 40, Vikings 3 (Nov. 20, 2022)

Quick Hit: The Cowboys have won three straight games against the Vikings, their second-longest active win streak against a single opponent (Giants, nine). Another win would match their longest win streak against Minnesota in series history (four straight from 1961-68).

Monday Night Football Prediction

Miami Dolphins (6-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)

Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Steelers 73.4%
DraftKings Point Spread: Steelers -3.0
All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Steelers 13-12
Last Meeting: Dolphins 16, Steelers 10 (Oct. 23, 2022)

Quick Hit: Mike McDaniel could become the fifth active head coach to win each of his first two career games versus the Steelers (S. McDermott, K. Shanahan, N. Sirianni, S. Steichen).

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

The post NFL Predictions: Picks, Odds and Insights for Every Game in Week 15 appeared first on Opta Analyst.