Week 16 Fantasy Football Secrets: Uncover the Surprising Start ’Em and Sit ’Em Picks That Could Make or Break Your Season!
Ever wonder if sticking to the experts’ fantasy football advice is the best play this late in the 2025 season? As we dive into Week 16, I’m here to stir the pot a bit — offering a fresh, data-driven take that might just have you second-guessing those consensus rankings. From Christian McCaffrey knitting history with his receiving yards to Trey McBride rewriting tight end records, these five standout numbers are telling a story that’s equal parts thrilling and unpredictable. And let’s not forget the wildcard phenom Wan’Dale Robinson, quietly proving why having the right perspective can make or break your playoff dreams. So, as the holidays approach, here’s hoping your fantasy squad ends the year strong — rather than a complete disaster. Ready to challenge what you think you know?
In our 2025 NFL Week 16 fantasy football start/sit analysis, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the experts’ picks.
May your holidays not be ruined by your fantasy team.
For the final time this season, let’s look at five numbers that have defined the 2025 fantasy football season.
180
That’s how many receiving yards Christian McCaffrey needs over the last three weeks to have only the second season of 1,000 receiving yards by a running back since the turn of the century. Of course, he is the only other one to have reached the mark back in 2019.
McCaffrey is a special player. And he has been, undisputably, the best fantasy player of this era. In the five seasons in which he’s played a full season since his rookie year, he has finished as the RB2 twice (2018 and 2022), the RB1 twice (2019 – still the greatest fantasy season ever – and 2023) and is currently first among running backs this season.
He is still the ultimate league-winner.
1
That’s where Trey McBride ranked in receptions among all pass catchers before Puka Nacua passed him Thursday night. McBride is having a historic season. How historic?
The last time a tight end led the NFL in receptions was 21 years ago, when Tony Gonzalez had 102 catches in 2004 for the Kansas City Chiefs. Not only does McBride already have 105 catches, but he’s in the hunt for the all-time tight end record of 116 in a season. And from a fantasy perspective, his 19.4 PPR points are on track to be the second-best season from a TE in the last decade.
190.4
If I gave you 100 guesses, would you know who the WR9 is on the season? Because 190.4 is how many PPR points that player has this season.
He’s tied for seventh in targets, ninth in receptions and 14th in receiving yards. He has 10 games this season with at least five receptions – one less than Ja’Marr Chase, two more than A.J. Brown, who is currently WR10.
There have only been 14 wide receivers to produce a game with at least 30 PPR points. This player did it, and he did it while catching passes from a third different quarterback in 2025.
Congrats to you if you have Wan’Dale Robinson on your team. He’s our model’s WR15 this week, sixth in projected targets and seventh in projected receptions. No player better encapsulates the difference between playing in a league that includes points per reception and one that doesn’t. If you do, Robinson is a player who belongs in your playoff lineup.
10
That’s how many times Josh Allen has scored at least 20 PPR points in a game this season. That number leads all quarterbacks and is tied with McCaffrey for the most among all players. It is his sixth straight season with at least 10 games of 20+ points.
He is the standard-bearer at the QB position. He leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, and he leads all quarterbacks in well-thrown percentage. With no Mahomes, no Joe Burrow, and potentially no Lamar Jackson in the playoffs this year, the team most fans will likely want to avoid is the one led by the game’s best quarterback.
That is certainly the case from a fantasy perspective anyway.
35,655
And finally, because we did just call Josh Allen the best quarterback in the league, let’s take a moment to appreciate the brilliance of Patrick Mahomes – undisputably this era’s best quarterback. The 35,655 is how many passing yards Mahomes has accumulated since the beginning of the 2018 season, which ranks first among all quarterbacks during that span.
More than that, he was first in pass attempts, completions, yards and passing touchdowns over the last eight years. He had a couple of earth-shattering seasons in 2018 and 2022, which led to him winning the MVP, and he won three Super Bowls (and three Super Bowl MVPs for good measure).
For much of the last eight years, there has never been a real need to ask the question of who the best quarterback in the world was, because everyone agreed that in a single, got-to-have-it drive, Mahomes was the only choice. Here’s to hoping for a speedy recovery in advance of the 2026 season, because the league is at its best when quarterback play is good, and no one was better at it the last eight years than Mahomes.
Week 16 Fantasy Football Start ’Em
Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from FantasyPros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Thursday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.
QB Jared Goff, DET vs. PIT (ECR: 8, Our Rank: 3, Projected Points: 17.84)
You know who’s second in the NFL in passing yards over the last eight seasons? That would be Jared Goff, who once again is on pace for a 4,000-yard, 29-touchdown season. It would be his fourth straight, and no other quarterback had done it even twice in a row entering this season.
And you know where he’s particularly good? At home in a dome. Since his trade to the Detroit Lions in 2021, Goff has 91 passing touchdowns in 41 games, with only 21 interceptions. In those 41 games, he has averaged 269 passing yards per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 28th in yards allowed per game, 27th in passing yards allowed per game, and in six road games, they have allowed 11 passing touchdowns to only two interceptions.
Goff is an elite option in the fantasy playoffs, with the Lions playing in a must-win game.
RB Michael Carter, ARI vs. ATL (ECR: 27, Our Rank: 13, Projected Points: 15.29)
This falls under the category of somebody has to get the ball in the Arizona Cardinals backfield. With James Conner, Trey Benson and Bam Knight all out with injury for the year, Carter becomes the next man up.
Carter has two games this year with more than 12 touches. In those games, he is averaging 15.85 PPR points. His advantage is really in the passing game, where he already has four games with at least four receptions. In his eight games with at least one target, he is averaging 3.5 receptions per game. That would rank seventh at the running back position.
That’s why it makes sense that Carter is eighth among all running backs in projected receptions this week. If you are looking for a desperation play, Carter, indoors against an Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed more than 30 points per game over the last three weeks, certainly qualifies.
Our projection model thinks he’s a solid RB2.
WR Ladd McConkey, LAC vs. DAL (ECR: 24, Our Rank: 13, Projected Points: 13.37)
It’s now or never for McConkey, who has had a largely disappointing season. He has 32 receiving yards in the last two weeks and he has not surpassed 40 in a single game since Week 10. He hasn’t had more than four receptions in a game since Week 8.
However, just look at who he gets to face this week. During this holiday season, it’s truly a gift to get to play the Dallas Cowboys defense, and it’s Ladd who gets to take advantage. The Cowboys are last in the NFL in passer rating allowed, passing yards allowed, touchdowns allowed, and offensive points allowed.
Wide receivers have scored 12 touchdowns against the Cowboys over the last seven weeks, but only three running backs have scored against them during that same span (two play for the Detroit Lions).
The model likes Justin Herbert’s chances of having a big passing game in this one. He is seventh in projected passing yards and fifth in projected passing touchdowns. McConkey should be the major beneficiary. He is worth trusting this week with your season on the line.
WR Adonai Mitchell, NYJ vs. NO (ECR: 33, Our Rank: 19, Projected Points: 12.48)
Among players with at least 200 routes, here are the only wide receivers averaging more burn yards per route than Mitchell: Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Zay Flowers, Drake London and Nico Collins.
If you’re having déjà vu, that’s the same stat we gave last week when Mitchell was the industry’s WR37 but was much higher according to our model.
Rinse, repeat. The Jets and Saints are playing indoors, and Mitchell is good! He is once again a worthy Flex play, inside our model’s top 20.
Week 16 Fantasy Football Sit ’Em
QB Jordan Love, GB vs. CHI (ECR: 13, Our Rank: 22, Projected Points: 12.72)
Since Week 9, Jordan Love has 84 rushing yards. He only has two games with more than 235 passing yards, and he has three games with no touchdowns. He is the QB20 in fantasy points per game during that stretch.
He’s essentially had two good fantasy performances since the start of November. Now, if you’re looking for reasons of optimism, one of them did come against the Chicago Bears just two weeks ago.
But that was in Green Bay and the Bears have been a different beast defensively at home. They’ve only surrendered six passing touchdowns at home. They’ve also intercepted the opposing QB 11 times, and only one quarterback – randomly, J.J. McCarthy all the way back in Week 1 – has had more touchdowns than interceptions in a game.
Love doesn’t have the mobility to make up for what could be a challenging game through the air. He should only be in play in SuperFlex leagues.
RB Bucky Irving, TB vs. CAR (ECR: 10, Our Rank: 26, Projected Points: 11.36)
A very common theme is to look for players who get the ball a lot. It seems simple. It mostly is. But Irving, who certainly qualifies as a workhouse, has some things working against him.
For starters, he is third on his own team in yards per carry. Worse, among all 50 qualified players, he is 50th (!!!) in yards per carry. Last year, he was sixth! He hasn’t been heavily involved in the passing game, with only five receptions in his three games back since injury.
And most crucially, he’s not the goal-line back. Last week, Sean Tucker got all three carries inside the opponent’s 5-yard line.
And well, a running back who isn’t involved in the passing game and isn’t his team’s primary option at the goal line has limited upside. Irving is a risky RB2 against the Carolina Panthers.
WR Mike Evans, TB vs. CAR (ECR: 11, Our Rank: 36, Projected Points: 9.74)
Let’s get the elephant out of the room. This is going to sound like a “Mike Evans Yay” section. He has absolutely owned the Panthers in his career. In his last 10 meetings, Evans has 73 receptions, 1,068 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns.
He also had six receptions for 132 yards in his return from injury last week.
And finally, his route rating of 93.4 is fourth among all wide receivers. This could be a week when Evans detonates and helps your team advance to the finals. But, and here’s the caveat… Evans hasn’t been his usual self this year. Last week was the first time he had more than 60 receiving yards in a game, and he only has one touchdown.
And Baker Mayfield only has 10 passing touchdowns in his last eight games, including exactly one in his last four road games. But the main reason for Evans being a Nay? One of those previous 10 games happened in January of last year, when Jaycee Horn led a Panthers defensive effort that held Evans to three receptions for 22 yards.
Can you really leave Evans on your bench? The model suggests it’s worth thinking about.
Good luck in your playoffs.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post Week 16 Fantasy Football Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: All the Yays, Nays, Projections & Rankings appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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