Week 16 NFL Showdowns: Surprising Picks and Shocking Upset Predictions Revealed!
Ever wonder if a supercomputer could call the shots better than your fantasy league buddy who’s been riding a lucky streak? Well, buckle up — the Opta supercomputer has crunched the numbers, and it’s unveiling win probabilities for every single game in the Week 16 lineup of the 2025 NFL season. With the playoff stakes sizzling and underdogs lurking, it’s anyone’s guess who’ll rise… or fizzle. The usual suspects like the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos top the charts, but as we all know, football loves throwing curveballs when you least expect them. So, whether you’re the stat nerd who thrives on data or just here for the football drama, this deep dive into probabilities might just change how you watch the game. Ready to see who the numbers say will take the crown—and who might shock us all?
With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.
With several big games that have major playoff implications, Week 16 looks to be another pivotal weekend in the 2025 NFL season.
As of Tuesday, the Los Angeles Rams (23.6%), Philadelphia Eagles (17.7%), Green Bay Packers (16.4%), Seattle Seahawks (11.5%) and Chicago Bears (9.0%) are the most likely to win the NFC – according to the Opta supercomputer.
In the AFC, the Denver Broncos (29.8%), Houston Texans (17.7%), Jacksonville Jaguars (13.6%), New England Patriots (11.5%) and Buffalo Bills (9.4%) have the highest probabilities of winning the conference title.
So who will come out on top in these key matchups? We’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through the supercomputer and received our win probabilities for each game.
Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Tuesday). And there’s always a small chance of a tie (we had the league’s first draw since 2022 earlier this season).
So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks. You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.
Thursday’s Predictions
Los Angeles Rams (11-3) at Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Rams 56.5% (as of Tuesday)
- Playoff Probabilities: Rams Clinched/Seahawks 99.7% (as of Tuesday)
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Seahawks 28-26
- Last Meeting: Rams 21, Seahawks 19 (Nov. 16, 2025)
Quick Hit: The Rams are looking for their first three-game win streak on the road against the Seahawks. This is just the third time they have won two straight in Seattle (also 1979-85 and 2017-18). Sean McVay’s six career wins in Seattle (including the postseason) are the most by any coach at the current stadium.
Saturday’s Predictions
Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Commanders (4-10)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Eagles 68.8%
- Playoff Probabilities: Eagles 99.1%/Commanders Out
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Commanders 89-85-5
- Last Meeting: Eagles 55, Commanders 23 (NFC Champ./Jan. 26, 2025)
Green Bay Packers (9-4-1) at Chicago Bears (10-4)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Packers 56.7%
- Playoff Probabilities: Packers 91.6%/Bears 80.2%
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Packers 108-95-6
- Last Meeting: Packers 28, Bears 21 (Dec. 7, 2025)
Sunday’s Predictions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7) at Carolina Panthers (7-7)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Panthers 50.7%
- Playoff Probabilities: Buccaneers 60.6%/Panthers 39.4%
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Panthers 25-24
- Last Meeting: Buccaneers 48, Panthers 14 (Dec. 29, 2024)
Buffalo Bills (10-4) at Cleveland Browns (3-11)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bills 72.5%
- Playoff Probabilities: Bills <100%/Browns Out
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Browns 12-10
- Last Meeting: Bills 31, Browns 23 (Nov. 20, 2022)
Los Angeles Chargers (10-4) at Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Cowboys 56.5%
- Playoff Probabilities: Chargers 95.5%/Cowboys 0.9%
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Cowboys 8-5
- Last Meeting: Cowboys 20, Chargers 17 (Oct. 16, 2023)
New York Jets (3-11) at New Orleans Saints (4-10)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Saints 69.2%
- Playoff Probabilities: Jets Out/Saints Out
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Saints 8-6
- Last Meeting: Saints 30, Jets 9 (Dec. 12, 2021)
Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at New York Giants (2-12)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Giants 60.0%
- Playoff Probabilities: Vikings Out/Giants Out
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Vikings 18-10
- Last Meeting: Vikings 28, Giants 6 (Sept. 8, 2024)
Kansas City Chiefs (6-8) at Tennessee Titans (2-12)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Chiefs 50.1%
- Playoff Probabilities: Chiefs Out/Titans Out
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Chiefs 28-24
- Last Meeting: Chiefs 20, Titans 17 OT (Nov. 6, 2022)
Cincinnati Bengals (4-10) at Miami Dolphins (6-8)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bengals 51.5%
- Playoff Probabilities: Bengals Out/Dolphins Out
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Dolphins 17-8
- Last Meeting: Bengals 27, Dolphins 15 (Sept. 29, 2022)
Atlanta Falcons (5-9) at Arizona Cardinals (3-11)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Falcons 54.2%
- Playoff Probabilities: Falcons Out/Cardinals Out
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Cardinals 17-16
- Last Meeting: Cardinals 25, Falcons 23 (Nov. 12, 2023)
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) at Denver Broncos (12-2)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Broncos 56.0%
- Playoff Probabilities: Jaguars 95.9%/Broncos In
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Broncos 7-6
- Last Meeting: Broncos 21, Jaguars 17 (Oct. 30, 2022)
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) at Detroit Lions (8-6)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Lions 61.3%
- Playoff Probabilities: Steelers 74.7%/Lions 31.2%
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Steelers 17-14-2
- Last Meeting: Lions 16, Steelers 16 OT (Nov. 14, 2021)
Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) at Houston Texans (9-5)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Texans 92.1%
- Playoff Probabilities: Raiders Out/Texans 97.6%
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Texans 7-5
- Last Meeting: Raiders 38, Texans 20 (Oct. 23, 2022)
Sunday Night Football Prediction
New England Patriots (11-3) at Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ravens 51.4%
- Playoff Probabilities: Patriots 99.8%/Ravens 25.3%
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Patriots 9-3
- Last Meeting: Ravens 37, Patriots 26 (Sept. 25, 2022)
Monday Night Football Prediction
San Francisco 49ers (10-4) at Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Colts 50.3%
- Playoff Probabilities: 49ers 97.3%/Colts 11.2%
- All-Time Regular Season Meetings: Colts 27-18
- Last Meeting: Colts 30, 49ers 18 (Oct. 24, 2021)
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post NFL Predictions: Picks, Probabilities and Insights for Every Game in Week 16 appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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