Week 3 NFL Shocks: Unbelievable Upset Picks That Could Rewrite the 2025 Season!

Ever wonder if a supercomputer can really call the shots on the NFL season—or if it’s just another flashy gadget in the crowded world of sports predictions? This year, the Opta supercomputer isn’t just crunching numbers in the background; it’s throwing down win probabilities for every single game of the 2025 NFL season, marching alongside us from kickoff to final whistle. Now, while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs face the daunting task of clawing out of an 0-2 hole, our digital oracle is tipping the scales towards the Bills and Ravens as early AFC favorites, with a fierce NFC showdown brewing among the Eagles, Packers, and a host of others. These aren’t your typical spread picks—they’re raw, unsentimental probabilities shaped by relentless data streams, continuously adapting as the injury reports hit and the game week unfolds. So, whether you’re here for a headline bout or a game people talk about only at water coolers, the supercomputer whispers its cold, hard truths—and we bring them straight to you. Care to see if the machine knows best this week? LEARN MORE.

With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.

The Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way this season, providing us with data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are chasing their fourth Super Bowl victory in seven seasons. But will they be able to dig their way out of an 0-2 start?

With the Chiefs struggling, the supercomputer gives the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens the AFC’s highest probabilities of winning it all. The Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers are the other top contenders early on, per our projection model.

There’s a huge battle for NFC supremacy with the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions having the best Super Bowl chances.

For all the matchups, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our supercomputer and received our win probabilities. It’s important to note that they’re not picks against the spread.

So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks, boldly dropping predictions for each.

Keep in mind that these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). And there is a small chance of any game finishing in a tie, though there hasn’t been one in the NFL since the 2022 season (there were actually two).

You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.

Thursday Night Football Prediction

at Buffalo Bills 82.9%, Miami Dolphins 17.1%

The Bills have won 12 of their last 13 games against the Dolphins, including each of the last five. That is tied for their longest active win streak against any team (also against Detroit). They have averaged 32.4 points per game against the Dolphins during the five-game streak.

Sunday Predictions

Atlanta Falcons 63.4%, at Carolina Panthers 36.6%

The Falcons scored 38 points and gained over 400 yards in each of their last two games against Carolina. Their 960 yards in the last two games against the Panthers are the sixth most in a two-game span versus any opponent.

Green Bay Packers 68.3%, at Cleveland Browns 31.7%

Jordan Love has not thrown an interception in any of his last nine starts. The last Packers quarterback to go 10 consecutive starts without a pick was Bart Starr, who did so in 14 straight (1964-65).

at Jacksonville Jaguars 54.3%, Houston Texans 45.7%

The Texans have made the playoffs three times after starting a season 0-2 (2015, 2018, 2023). Since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990, only one other team has made the playoffs after an 0-2 start in three different seasons – the Patriots (1994, 1996, 2001).

at Minnesota Vikings 60.8%, Cincinnati Bengals 39.2%

In 14 games without Joe Burrow since 2020, the Bengals have averaged 199.7 pass yards per game and 19.9 points per game (6-8 record). With Joe Burrow, the Bengals have averaged 256.7 pass yards per game and 25.3 points per game (40-30-1 record).

Pittsburgh Steelers 52.0%, at New England Patriots 48.0%

Aaron Rodgers owns an 0-2 record in his career at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are one of five teams Rodgers has never beaten on the road (regular season and playoffs). The others are the Steelers, Bills, Colts and Broncos.

at Philadelphia Eagles 61.0%, Los Angeles Rams 39.0%

Puka Nacua has hauled in 202 receptions in 30 career games. He joined Odell Beckham Jr. as the second player in NFL history with 200+ receptions through his first 30 career games.

Nacua also leads the NFL with 9.2 receptions and 110.8 yards per game since Week 14 of last season (seven weeks).

at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 70.4%, New York Jets 29.6%

Emeka Egbuka is the third Bucs player to begin his NFL career with a touchdown reception in back-to-back games (2010 Mike Williams and 1987 Eric Streater). The last NFL player to start his career with a TD catch in three consecutive games was Ja’Marr Chase in 2021.

Indianapolis Colts 58.1%, at Tennessee Titans 41.9%

The last eight games between the Colts and Titans have been decided by fewer than 10 points (four wins for each). It is the longest active streak between any two divisional opponents in the NFL.

at Los Angeles Chargers 57.9%, Denver Broncos 42.1%

The Chargers won both games over the Broncos last season, each by seven points. It was their first time sweeping the season series since 2010. Since the start of the 2010 season, the Chargers and Broncos have played in 21 one-possession games, including playoffs, tied for second most of any NFL matchup in that time (Ravens vs. Steelers – 24).

at Seattle Seahawks 73.1%, New Orleans Saints 26.9%

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has recorded at least 100 receiving yards in each of Seattle’s first two games. He is the second player in franchise history with 100+ receiving yards in back-to-back games to open a season, along with Tyler Lockett in 2021.

at Chicago Bears 52.2%, Dallas Cowboys 47.8%

Chicago has allowed 79 points through its first two games of 2025, tied with 2015 and trailing 1965 (82) and 1968 (80) for its most allowed in team history. The Bears’ minus-34 point differential through two games is their worst mark since 2003 (-53).

at San Francisco 49ers 54.3%, Arizona Cardinals 45.7%

The 49ers are 4-2 against the Cardinals in their last six matchups, but the Cardinals have won the most recent two. The 49ers have not allowed a 300-yard passer against the Cardinals in their last 15 matchups, their longest active streak against any team.

Sunday Night Football Prediction

Kansas City Chiefs 65.8%, at New York Giants 34.2%

The Chiefs have started their season 0-2 for the first time since 2014 and their losses have come by six and three points, respectively. It’s the second time in team history that Kansas City has opened a season with consecutive losses by a touchdown or less (also 1975).

Monday Night Football Predictions

at Baltimore Ravens 68.9%, Detroit Lions 31.1%

Lamar Jackson threw for four touchdowns against the Browns in Week 2. It was his eighth consecutive game with multiple passing touchdowns, the longest active streak in the NFL and doubles the next-longest streak of this kind in his career.

Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

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