Week 4 NFL Showdowns: Which Underdogs Are Poised to Shock the League?
Ever wonder if a supercomputer could really call the twists and turns of the NFL season better than your die-hard uncle at Thanksgiving? Well, with the Opta supercomputer crunching the numbers for every game of the 2025 NFL season, we’re about to find out. While Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs aim for yet another Super Bowl trophy, the tech behind the scenes suggests a fierce AFC showdown with the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Baltimore Ravens holding strong odds. Over in the NFC, the battle royale includes heavyweights like the Eagles, Packers, Rams, and a surprising Detroit Lions squad flexing big-time potential. These win probabilities aren’t just gut calls—they’re raw data spit out by a machine that never sleeps or gets woozy from Sunday night football. So whether it’s a marquee matchup or a ‘meh’ midseason faceoff, the numbers are ready to tell the tale, and trust me, they shift with every injury update or unexpected break. Curious how the odds stack up? Dive deep with us and see where your team really stands in this data-driven gridiron saga. LEARN MORE
With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.
The Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way this season, providing us with data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are chasing their fourth Super Bowl victory in seven seasons, but the supercomputer gives the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens the AFC’s highest probabilities of winning it all.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers are the other top contenders early on, per our projection model (as of Wednesday).
There’s a huge battle for NFC supremacy with the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions having the best Super Bowl chances.
For all the matchups, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our supercomputer and received our win probabilities. It’s important to note they’re straight-up win probabilities and not picks against the point spread.
So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks.
Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). And there’s a small chance of any game finishing in a tie, though there hasn’t been one in the NFL since the 2022 season, when there were two.
You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.
Thursday Night Football Prediction
at Arizona Cardinals 51.0%, Seattle Seahawks 49.0%
The Seahawks (2-1) have won seven straight games against the Cardinals (2-1), tied for their longest active winning streak against any opponent (vs. Eagles). Seattle has two winning streaks of at least eight games against a single team in team history (vs. 49ers – 9; vs. Rams – 10).
Sunday Predictions
Minnesota Vikings 55.2%, vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 44.8% (in Ireland)
This will be the first NFL regular-season game played in Ireland. Minnesota (2-1) is 4-0 all time in international games – the most wins without a loss by any NFL team. The Steelers (2-1) lost their lone international game, which came against Minnesota in London in 2013 (34-27).
Washington Commanders 55.0%, at Atlanta Falcons 45.0%
The Commanders (2-1) put up 41 points this past weekend against the Raiders. It was their fourth 40-point game since last season – second-most by an NFC team (Lions – seven).
The Falcons (1-2), however, are allowing 227.3 yards per game – second-fewest in the NFL. It’s Atlanta’s second-lowest YPG average allowed through three games of a season all time (1977 – 198.7).
at Buffalo Bills 88.5%, New Orleans Saints 11.5%
The Bills have started the season 3-0 in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2019-20. Buffalo has started 4-0 twice in the last 30 years: 2008 (4-0) and 2020 (4-0).
The Saints, meanwhile, are 0-3 for the first time since 2016 and have lost seven consecutive games dating back to last season. An eighth straight loss would be their longest losing streak since a 14-game skid in 1980.
at Detroit Lions 76.0%, Cleveland Browns 24.0%
David Montgomery rushed for 151 yards and two touchdowns on 12 attempts as the Lions (2-1) beat the Ravens in Week 3. He’s the first player since Maurice Jones-Drew in Week 8, 2009 (and sixth player since 1950) with 150 or more rush yards and two or more rush TD on 12 or fewer rushes.
The Browns (1-2) have kept opponents to a rushing average of 2.29 yards per play while not allowing any rush to go over 11 yards this season. It is the first defense to do that through the first three weeks of a season since the 2019 Patriots.
at Houston Texans 73.0%, Tennessee Titans 27.0%
Nine of the last 10 meetings between the Texans (0-3) and Titans (0-3) have been decided by fewer than 10 points. Since the beginning of the 2020 season, that’s tied for the most such games by any matchup with the Ravens vs. Steelers and Chargers vs. Chiefs.
at New England Patriots 67.3%, Carolina Panthers 32.7%
The Patriots (1-2) have not had a 300+ yard passer in 36 consecutive games (since Week 2, 2023) – 12 games longer than any other active streak in the NFL (Titans, 24). The only longer such streaks in Patriots team history are a streak of 93 from Week 1, 1967 to Week 9, 1973 and a streak of 49 from Week 12, 1973 to Week 1, 1979.
The Panthers’ 30-0 win over the Falcons in Week 3 marked the team’s first shutout since Week 11, 2020 (20-0 win over Lions). Carolina (1-2) has gone 14 consecutive drives without allowing points. That’s the team’s longest streak since going 15 straight drives without allowing points from Weeks 13-15, 2015.
Los Angeles Chargers 65.9%, at New York Giants 34.1%
Justin Herbert of the 3-0 Chargers has two 300-yard passing games, including last weekend against the Broncos. He’s the only quarterback with multiple 300-yard passing games this season and is tied with Josh Allen for second-most games since 2020 (29) behind Patrick Mahomes (31).
Rookie Jaxson Dart is set to start under center for the Giants (0-3), who have allowed the second-most yards per game in the NFL at 405.3 (Ravens, 415.0).
Philadelphia Eagles 58.1%, at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 41.9%
The Buccaneers (3-0) are 4-1 against the Eagles (3-0) over their last five regular-season matchups, including a 33-16 win in Week 4 last season. They have held Philadelphia to 25 or fewer points in each of those games. That’s the second-longest active streak against the Eagles behind the Seahawks’ seven-game run.
at Los Angeles Rams 61.8%, Indianapolis Colts 38.2%
Puka Nacua of the Rams (2-1) has recorded at least 10 receptions in two games this season – the only NFL player to do so. Nacua has six career games with 10 or more catches, tied with Robert Woods for the fourth most by any Ram in the Super Bowl era.
The Colts are 3-0 while putting up at least 1,000 net yards of offense for the first time since 2009, which was the last time Indianapolis made the Super Bowl.
These are two of the best teams in the NFL, per our EVE (efficiency vs. expected) model.
at San Francisco 49ers 61.4%, Jacksonville Jaguars 38.6%
Each of San Francisco’s wins has come by five or fewer points – the first time in history the 49ers have started the year with three straight wins by a touchdown or less. It’s also tied for the 49ers’ longest streak of games decided by six or fewer points to begin a season (1960, 2001).
The Jaguars (2-1) are looking to open a season with at least three wins through four games for the first time since 2018.
Baltimore Ravens 54.4%, at Kansas City Chiefs 45.6%
Including the playoffs, the Chiefs (1-2) are 5-1 against the Ravens (1-2) when Patrick Mahomes starts. That’s the second-best record as starting QB by any player against the Ravens (minimum five starts, regular season and playoffs), behind only Kordell Stewart (8-1).
at Las Vegas Raiders 51.7%, Chicago Bears 48.3%
The Raiders (1-2) have secured a sack in 38 straight games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL (10 more than the next team on the list, 28 by the Broncos). It’s the team’s longest such stretch since a 58-game run from 1984-87.
Caleb Williams wasn’t sacked in a game for the first time in his career in Chicago’s Week 3 win over the Cowboys. He finished with 298 yards and four touchdowns as the Bears moved to 1-2.
Sunday Night Football Prediction
Green Bay Packers 67.8%, at Dallas Cowboys 32.2%
The Packers (2-1) have scored at least 34 points and won each of their last five matchups at Dallas (1-2), including two playoff victories. It’s the longest streak of road wins scoring 34+ points by any team against a single opponent in NFL history (including postseason games).
Monday Night Football Predictions
at Miami Dolphins 57.7%, New York Jets 42.3%
The Dolphins (0-3) have won nine consecutive home matchups versus the Jets (0-3), Miami’s third-longest all-time home win streak versus any single opponent. The nine-game road losing streak is New York’s second longest all time versus any one team (14 vs. Patriots).
at Denver Broncos 73.3%, Cincinnati Bengals 26.7%
J.K. Dobbins of the Broncos (1-2) is the seventh player since 1950 with 60+ rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in each of his first three games with a team. He’s looking to tie David Montgomery (2023, Lions) and Alan Ameche (1955, Colts) for the longest streak at four.
The Bengals (2-1), on the other hand, are the only team in the last 75 years to rush for fewer than 150 yards and still win two of their first three games. Cincinnati’s 147 rushing yards are its second-fewest through the first three games of a season (125 in 2019).
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post NFL Predictions: Which Teams Are Projected to Win in Week 4? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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