Week 8 Football Shockers: Underdogs Poised to Unleash Chaos and Cash In

Stop the count — can a hot streak in college football betting actually last beyond the usual rollercoaster of early wins and late-season heartbreaks? I’m sitting pretty at 9-3 through seven weeks, boasting a +40.3% ROI and over five units up, but let’s be honest: I’m the classic “sucker money” who shines early before the fall chaos hits. Still, this season feels different — maybe it’s my lucky year, or maybe the stars have aligned just enough to keep the green rolling in. From Iowa’s steady dominance against Penn State to Alabama’s points laying too thick on a booming Tennessee offense, this week’s picks aren’t just gut calls; they’re chess moves calculated with history, injuries, and market quirks. And hey, who’s ready to fade those early line moves made by the sharpest sportsbook in Vegas? If old-school angles and fresh disruptions play out like I expect, it’s going to be one thrilling wager week. So grab your popcorn — and your bankroll — because it’s game time.

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Stop the count. Through the first seven weeks of the college football season, I’m 9-3 with a +40.3% return on investment and +5.44 units (u). Albeit, most of those picks are given out on my X (Geoffery_Clark). But, like I wrote last week, I’m “sucker money” in college football. The trend is I’m usually up money in the first month, donk it off during the fall, and essentially flip coins in the postseason.

Hopefully, this is just a good season for me, and I won’t donate my money back to the house. However, I’ll enjoy the ride while it lasts and continue betting college football as long as my account is in the green. With that in mind, here are my looks for this week (as always, fade and follow at your own risk).

I’ve profited from the Hawkeyes (4-2) twice already this season by using the same trend that applies here: Iowa is 19-2 straight up (SU) and 17-4 against the spread (ATS) as -4 favorites or fewer in conference games with a +12.5 spread differential since 2015. This includes a 23-20 win over Penn State as -2.5 favorites in 2021.

Now-former Nittany Lions (3-3) head coach James Franklin was fired earlier this week after his third straight SU and ATS loss. Their first loss over that span to No. 8 Oregon, 30-24 in double overtime, was excusable. But Penn State’s loss to UCLA as a -24.5 favorite and Northwestern as a -21 favorite were inexcusable. At least for PSU’s boosters and athletic department.

Also, the Nittany Lions lost senior QB Drew Allar to a season-ending injury last week. Their offense was trash with Allar and Franklin. If Allar was playing, maybe Penn State interim head coach Terry Smith could get more out of him. Instead, PSU will probably lean on the run, and the Hawkeyes have the best rushing defense in the Big Ten.

Given how college football works nowadays with NIL and the transfer portal, the Nittany Lions might be checked out, whereas Ferentz always has his team ready to play. Even if Penn State is motivated by the new coach, styles make fights, and the Hawkeyes should be able to put the clamps on PSU Saturday.

Essentially, ‘Bama (5-1) is laying too many points against a Volunteers (5-1) team that leads the nation in scoring at 48.2 points per game. Alabama has lost the yard-per-play battle in all three of its SEC games, and Tennessee has won the yard-per-play battle in all three. UT outgained No. 9 Georgia 7.1-5.8 in yards per play, but ‘Bama had 1.5 fewer yards per play than Georgia (6.7-5.2).

The Volunteers have a massive edge in the rushing department as well. They average 5.4 yards per rush against FBS schools (17th nationally) and allow 3.5 yards per carry on defense (27th). The Crimson Tide rushes for 3.7 yards per attempt (97th) and allows 4.8 yards per carry on defense (106th). Plus, ‘Bama RB Jam Miller is questionable for Saturday.

Ultimately, I have as much confidence in UT’s football program under head coach Josh Heupel as I do Alabama under second-year head coach, and Nick Saban’s successor, Kalen DeBoer. The Volunteers beat the Crimson Tide 24-17 last year in Heupel and DeBoer’s first meeting. Both will be among the favorites to make the college football playoff, but Tennessee is getting +8.5.

This feels like a let-down game for Missouri (5-1) after losing a nail-biter to Alabama last week, 27-24, at home. Now, Mizzou has to go on the road, in conference, to face a hungry Auburn (3-3) team that’s taken a couple of tough beats recently.

Auburn held a lead at halftime and had a 47% postgame win expectancy in a 20-10 home loss to Georgia as +4.5 underdogs last week, according to CollegeFootballData.com. I.e., Auburn’s loss was closer than the final score indicates.

In Week 4, Auburn failed to cover as +6.5 underdogs in a 24-17 loss to No. 14 Oklahoma. It was an atrocious beat for Auburn, which held a lead in the fourth quarter and blew the cover because of two offensive penalties and two sacks, including a safety on its final drive.

Circa Sports, the sharpest sportsbook in Las Vegas, known for accepting the biggest bets, opened Auburn as a -3 favorite. The market quickly bet Missouri up to a slight road favorite. However, I’m fading that early line movement and saying Circa got it right on the opener.

Auburn has played the sixth-toughest schedule, per Pro Football Focus, and Missouri’s is 85th. If Auburn upset Georgia or Oklahoma, which it easily could’ve, then Missouri would still be an underdog. Finally, an old-school college football handicapping angle is fading a ranked team when it goes on the road to play a conference foe. Especially when it’s a fishy line.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my college football 2025-26 bets here.