Week 8 NFL Showdowns: Unbelievable Picks and Shocking Odds You Can’t Afford to Miss!
Ever wondered if a supercomputer could call the shots better than your seasoned NFL buddy at the draft party? Well, the Opta supercomputer is doing exactly that this season — crunching numbers and piping out win probabilities for every game in the 2025 NFL season. As we roll into Week 8, data-driven insights are spotlighting the usual suspects in the AFC, like the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs, while the NFC’s brightest include teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers. But here’s the kicker: these aren’t your typical picks against the spread or wishful guesses. They’re raw, unfiltered win probabilities that flex and shift as new info rolls in—think injuries and game-day developments shaking things up. Whether it’s a marquee matchup or a battle with playoff implications as cold as a December snap, our trusty supercomputer’s got its circuits buzzing with unrelenting precision. Curious to see the cold, hard stats that defy the gut feeling? Dive into the pulse of the NFL’s Week 8 with real-time, data-driven predictions that could just outsmart the humans. LEARN MORE
With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing win probabilities for each game throughout the 2025 NFL season.
The Opta supercomputer is with us every step of the way this season, providing data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.
Heading into Week 8, the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts have the highest probabilities of winning the AFC.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers are the most likely to win the NFC, followed by the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
For all the matchups, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our supercomputer and received our win probabilities. It’s important to note they’re straight-up win probabilities and not picks against the point spread.
Keep in mind these percentages move throughout the week as things happen, particularly after injuries are sorted out (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). And there’s always a small chance of a tie (we had the league’s first draw since 2022 earlier this season).
So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game with nothing on the line, the model unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks. You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on the schedule page within our NFL hub.
Thursday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings (3-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-3)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Chargers 61.0%
- Spread: Chargers -3.0 (via DraftKings as of Wednesday)
- All-Time Meetings (Regular Season): Vikings 8-7
- Last Meeting: Chargers 28, Vikings 24 (Sept. 24, 2023)
Quick Hit: Justin Jefferson has recorded at least 140 receiving yards in each of his two games against the Chargers. The only player in NFL history with 140+ receiving yards in each of his first three career games against any single opponent was Jerry Rice versus the Chargers.
Sunday’s Games
Miami Dolphins (1-6) at Atlanta Falcons (3-3)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Falcons 73.3%
- Spread: Falcons -7.5
- All-Time Meetings: Dolphins 9-5
- Last Meeting: Falcons 30, Dolphins 28 (Oct. 24, 2021)
Quick Hit: The Dolphins have lost four consecutive road games to start the season, tied with the Giants for the longest streak to begin 2025. Miami’s active streak is its longest to begin a season since 2011 (also four).
Chicago Bears (4-2) at Baltimore Ravens (1-5)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ravens 71.6%
- Spread: Ravens -6.5 (via FanDuel)
- All-Time Meetings: Bears 4-3
- Last Meeting: Ravens 16, Bears 13 (Nov. 21, 2021)
Quick Hit: The Bears are one of only three NFC opponents Baltimore is under .500 against (Panthers, Packers). The Ravens’ 1-5 start is tied for their worst in franchise history (also started 1-5 in 2015).
Buffalo Bills (4-2) at Carolina Panthers (4-3)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bills 68.0%
- Spread: Bills -7.0
- All-Time Meetings: Bills 6-2
- Last Meeting: Bills 31, Panthers 14 (Dec. 19, 2021)
Quick Hit: Buffalo’s offense has gained at least 4 yards on 56.0% of its first-down plays, the highest mark in the NFL. Carolina’s defense has given up at least 4 yards on 39.9% of its opponents’ first-down plays, the lowest mark in the NFL.
New York Jets (0-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-4)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bengals 70.5%
- Spread: Bengals -6.5
- All-Time Meetings: Jets 16-11
- Last Meeting: Bengals 27, Jets 12 (Sept. 25, 2022)
Quick Hit: Cincinnati has won four of its last five games against New York, winning those games by an average margin of 18.0 points.
San Francisco 49ers (5-2) at Houston Texans (2-4)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: 54.2%
- Spread: Texans -1.5
- All-Time Meetings: 49ers 4-1
- Last Meeting: 49ers 23, Texans 7 (Jan. 2, 2022)
Quick Hit: The 49ers have converted 47.5% of their third downs, their highest rate through seven games of a season since 2002 (52.4%). Texans’ opponents have converted 32.0% of their third downs, Houston’s lowest allowed through six games since 2015 (31.3%). Overall, they also rank among the best in the league in defensive EVE.
Cleveland Browns (2-5) at New England Patriots (5-2)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Patriots 73.0%
- Spread: Patriots -7.0
- All-Time Meetings: Patriots 14-12
- Last Meeting: Patriots 38, Browns 15 (Oct. 16, 2022)
Quick Hit: The Patriots have won nine of their last 10 matchups against the Browns, including each of the last five. This is New England’s second-longest active winning streak against any opponent (Falcons – 6).
New York Giants (2-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Eagles 73.2%
- Spread: Eagles -7.5
- All-Time Meetings: Eagles 92-87-2
- Last Meeting: Giants 34, Eagles 17 (Oct. 9, 2025)
Quick Hit: The Giants have won two of the last four games in the series after going 3-17 in the previous 20 matchups (including the postseason). The Giants are looking to sweep the season series against the Eagles for the first time since 2007.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2) at New Orleans Saints (1-6)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Buccaneers 63.0%
- Spread: Buccaneers -4.5
- All-Time Meetings: Saints 40-26
- Last Meeting: Buccaneers 27, Saints 19 (Jan. 5, 2025)
Quick Hit: The Bucs are looking to win five straight NFC South matchups for the first time since 2007. Their 21-10 record in division games since 2020 is the third best in the NFL behind
Buffalo (26-7) and Kansas City (25-7).
Dallas Cowboys (3-3-1) at Denver Broncos (5-2)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Broncos 62.0%
- Spread: Broncos -3.5
- All-Time Meetings: Broncos 9-4
- Last Meeting: Broncos 30, Cowboys 16 (Nov. 7, 2021)
Quick Hit: The Broncos have won seven straight games against the Cowboys dating back to 1998, their longest active win streak against a single opponent (Dallas’ longest active losing streak versus any single team). The Cowboys won five of the first seven games in the series before this streak (including Super Bowl XII).
Tennessee Titans (1-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-1)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Colts 86.7%
- Spread: Colts -14.0
- All-Time Meetings: Colts 40-21
- Last Meeting: Colts 41, Titans 20 (Sept. 21, 2025)
Quick Hit: The Colts have rushed for 472 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while winning their last two against the Titans. It’s the first time Indianapolis has had a two-game span with 450+ rushing yards and seven or more rushing touchdowns against any opponent since Week 15, 1985-Week 15, 1987 against the Buccaneers.
Sunday Night Football
Green Bay Packers (4-1-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Packers 57.9%
- Spread: Packers -3.0
- All-Time Meetings: Packers 19-17
- Last Meeting: Steelers 23, Packers 19 (Nov. 12, 2023)
Quick Hit: The Packers are converting 49.3% of their third downs this season, the best conversion rate in the NFL. It is on pace to be their second-highest third-down conversion rate over the last 30 seasons (2020 – 49.4%). The Steelers defense is allowing a 41.9% third-down conversion rate, ranking 25th in the NFL.
Monday Night Football
Washington Commanders (3-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)
- Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Chiefs 80.9%
- Spread: Chiefs -12.5
- All-Time Meetings: Chiefs 10-1
- Last Meeting: Chiefs 31, Washington FT 13 (Oct. 17, 2021)
Quick Hit: The Chiefs’ 10-1 mark versus the Commanders is the fourth-best record of any current team versus any current opponent. Washington, which will be without starting QB Jayden Daniels, has gone 0-5 in Kansas City and is one of two teams that have never beaten the Chiefs on the road (Cardinals, 0-5-1).
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post NFL Predictions: Picks, Odds and Insights for All the Games in Week 8 appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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