Week 9 Shocker: Big Ten Rankings Flip the Script—Who’s Rising and Who’s Falling?

The recent weekend in Big Ten football saw the favored contenders deliver as expected — no surprises where wins were concerned, but some teams including Washington, upped their game with more commanding victories than anticipated . Amid the expected outcomes, there were a few jolting moments as top-25 squads fell or barely escaped upsets . And, let’s be honest, can Washington’s triumph over Illinois be dubbed an upset when the Huskies held the advantage on paper? On the poll front, five Big Ten teams locked in their spots in the AP rankings, while four found favor with the Coaches poll – Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan, and USC all making headlines for various reasons. Washington and Iowa hovered just outside the top 25, garnering votes on both lists, signaling that the race for rankings is heating up. Intrigued to dive deeper into the standings, stats, and what lies ahead for these squads? LEARN MORE

All of the Big Ten teams that were supposed to win, did. A few won by larger-than-expected margins-including UW.

There were a couple of upsets of top-25 teams, and a couple of near upsets. (Can you call UW’s win over Illinois an upset since they were favored?)

Here are the 5 Big Ten teams in the AP poll and 4 in the Coaches poll (AP/Coaches):

Ohio State (1/1) Unchanged
Indiana (2/2) Unchanged
Oregon (6/6) Unchanged
Michigan (21/21) Up 4 in the AP and up 3 in the Coaches
USC (23/NR) Up from unranked in the AP

Washington (#28) and Iowa (#29) are getting votes in the AP poll. Iowa (#26), USC (#27), Washington (#29), and Nebraska (#38) are getting votes in the Coaches poll.

Should UW Be Ranked in the Top-25?

We’ll start with the topic on the minds of a lot of Husky fans: Should the Huskies be ranked in the top-25? The answer is: Yes

There are plenty of rankings that have UW in the top-25. In the Massey Composite, 73 of 80 rankings have UW in the top-25. In the advanced stats rankings, they are in the top-25: #22 in SP+, #23 in FPI, #23 in FEI, and #20 in SRS. They are also #22 in Sagarin and #23 in Kelley Ford. Tony has a nice summary of some of those as well as some others:

The vast majority of rankings (over 90%) confirm that UW should be in the top-25. (See also the table below.)

Even though UW is not playing this weekend, some of the teams ranked above them in the current polls will be playing. There is a good chance that UW can move up into the top-25 next week without doing anything. There are 3 games involving ranked-vs-ranked teams. So that means at least 3 of top-25 teams will lose this weekend. There is also a team getting more votes (than UW) that is an underdog in their game this weekend. Here’s a look at some of the teams getting more votes in the AP poll than UW and who they are playing this weekend:

Tulane (#27) at UTSA. Tulane is favored by just 3.5
Navy (#26) at North Texas (#34). North Texas is favored by 6.5. A win by North Texas probably doesn’t move them up past UW.
Memphis (#25) at Rice. Memphis is a heavy favorite, so not likely to lose.
Cincinnati (#17) at Utah (#24). Utah is favored by 9.5. Cincinnati is 7-1, so a loss probably doesn’t drop them out of the top-25.
USC (#23) at Nebraska. USC is favored by 6.5. But if USC continues to struggle on the road…
Vanderbilt (#9) at Texas (#20). Texas is favored by just 1.5. A loss by Texas would put them at 6-3 and should drop them out of the top-25.
Oklahoma (#18) at Tennessee (#14). Tennessee is favored by 2.5. Both teams already have 2 losses. If Oklahoma loses, they should drop out of the top-25. A loss by Tennessee should drop them out.

UW would likely be favored on a neutral field against all 3 of the American Conference teams that are getting more votes (Memphis, Navy, and Tulane). That’s further evidence that UW should be ranked above at least those 3.

But, starting next week (November 4), the main rankings that will be referred to will be the CFP rankings. While historically there has been a lot of similarity between the AP rankings and the CFP rankings, there are usually differences-especially toward the bottom of the rankings. There’s no guarantee that UW will be in the CFP next week, but there is a very good chance that UW will be moving up in the polls in the next week and will at least be considered for a spot in the first CFP rankings. And, as long as they take care of business against Wisconsin, Purdue, and UCLA, there is every reason to believe that they will be in the top-25 by the time they play Oregon.

Composite Ranking

This week the Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) includes 77 different rankings (as of the writing of this article), including the AP and Coaches polls. The following “Cool Chart” shows the changes since the preseason for the teams in the Big Ten.

The same two teams have been at the top since week 4: Ohio State and Indiana. Purdue is now back at the bottom.

There seems to be a noticeable gap between the number 9 team (Nebraska) and the number 10 team (Northwestern)-not surprising since Nebraska just beat Northwestern. That gap is large enough that it is clear which are the top 9 teams and which are the bottom 9.

Other Rankings

Most of the Big Ten teams have played 8 games-so 2/3rd of the regular season. The advanced stats should reflect how each of the teams is playing this season (and no longer have much of a factor from how the teams played last season). The table below lists the rankings for each of the Big Ten teams in 6 different advanced stats rankings: SP+, FEI, ESPN’s FPI, and Kelly Ford (KFord). Also included in the table are some other popular rankings of all FBS teams along with the SRS rankings. (Sagarin includes all D1 teams, so FCS teams are included).

School	Composite	SP+	FPI	FEI	Sagarin	CBS	KFord	SRS
Illinois	29	30	33	30	33	29	27	25
Indiana	2	1	2	2	3	2	2	4
Iowa	25	17	20	15	17	26	19	22
Maryland	63	37	55	47	56	47	56	54
Michigan	16	21	15	19	20	23	15	19
Michigan State	84	81	70	80	71	79	66	84
Minnesota	53	58	64	62	55	44	62	66
Nebraska	33	27	34	31	39	34	30	48
Northwestern	50	62	58	61	58	50	57	58
Ohio State	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	3
Oregon	10	3	3	3	2	5	4	14
Penn State	60	20	21	21	18	60	21	60
Purdue	100	77	81	77	98	89	75	88
Rutgers	67	63	62	67	66	80	61	68
UCLA	72	78	71	65	68	73	69	71
USC	19	16	9	13	15	22	11	11
Washington	18	22	23	23	22	27	23	20
Wisconsin	85	87	63	69	62	100	63	81

Consistent with what was noted above, Washington is a top-25 team in 7 of these 8 rankings.

After their win over Minnesota, Iowa is now also a top-25 team in 7 of these 8 rankings.

Penn State is in the top-25 in 5 of the eight; they are #60 in the other 3. Michigan State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, and Wisconsin are all between #60 and #100 in all of the rankings.

Week 10 Games

There are just 6 Big Ten conference games this week.

Visitor	ESPN FPI	Massey	KFord	SP+	Home	ESPN FPI	Massey	KFord	SP+
Indiana	90.4%	87%	94%	84%	Maryland	9.6%	13%	6%	16%
Michigan State	38.3%	28%	38%	28%	Minnesota	61.7%	72%	62%	72%
Penn State	11.9%	10%	10%	20%	Ohio State	88.1%	90%	90%	80%
Purdue	6.2%	1%	6%	9%	Michigan	93.8%	99%	94%	91%
Rutgers	20.3%	28%	21%	23%	Illinois	79.7%	72%	79%	77%
USC	72.1%	68%	69%	54%	Nebraska	27.9%	32%	31%	46%

There is consistency between the win percentages in most of the games. The USC-Nebraska game is the one exception; 3 sites have USC as a heavy favorite while SP+ has them as just a slight favorite.

Bowl Games

Seven Big Ten teams have already bowl-eligibility, including three teams (Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon) who all seem likely to make the CFP. Here’s a look at each of the Big Ten teams and their chance to make a bowl game:

Ohio State. Already bowl-eligible and a heavy favorite to make the CFP.
Indiana. Already bowl-eligible and a heavy favorite to make the CFP.
Oregon. Already bowl-eligible and a favorite to make the CFP.
Michigan. Already bowl-eligible. At 6-2, would likely need to win out to make the CFP; that would mean another win over Ohio State.
Washington. Already bowl-eligible. At 6-2, would likely need to win out to make the CFP; that would mean another win over Oregon.
Iowa. Already bowl-eligible. At 6-2, would likely need to win out to make the CFP. Iowa still must play Oregon and USC as well as at Nebraska.
Nebraska. Already bowl-eligible. At 6-2, would have to win out to make the CFP.
USC. Needs one more win to be bowl-eligible. They still play Northwestern (next weekend) and UCLA (the last weekend. They are currently heavy favorites in both of those games. They are also the favorite against Nebraska this weekend and at home against Iowa.
Illinois. Needs one more win to be bowl-eligible. They are favored in all 4 of their remaining games (Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Northwester).
Minnesota. Needs one more win to be bowl-eligible. They have home games against Michigan State and Wisconsin where they are currently favored. Winning at least one of those seems likely.
Northwestern. Needs one more win to be bowl-eligible, but they still must play USC, Michigan, and Illinois. Their other game is at home against Minnesota; they are currently favored in that game-and that appears to be their best chance at another win.
Maryland. Needs 2 more wins to be bowl-eligible. They still must play Indiana, Illinois, and Michigan in 3 of their 5 remaining games. If they cannot get an upset in any of those, they will need to beat both Rutgers and Michigan State.
Rutgers. Needs 2 more wins to be bowl-eligible. They still must play Illinois, Ohio State, and Penn State. They may need to beat Penn State in their final game to be bowl-eligible.
Penn State. Needs 3 wins in their final 5 games. Their next 2 games are against Ohio State and Indiana. If they can’t pull off an upset, they will need to win their final 3 games (at Michigan State, Nebraska, and at Rutgers).
Michigan State. Needs 3 wins. They are currently not favored in any of their final 4 games.
UCLA. Needs 3 wins. They are currently not favored in any of their final 4 games. Those games are against Nebraska, Ohio State, Washington, and USC.
Wisconsin. Needs to win all 4 of their remaining games, including beating Washington, Indiana, and Illinois.
Purdue. Needs to win all 4 of their remaining games, including Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, and Indiana.

Washington is still eligible for bowl games tied to the old Pac-12. That means that they will be competing with the old Pac-12 teams for spots in those bowl games. Those bowl games include the Alamo Bowl, the Holiday Bowl, the Las Vegas Bowl, the Sun Bowl, the Los Angeles Bowl, and the Independence Bowl. (Note that the Rose Bowl is part of the CFP.) Currently Washington is one of only 3 former Pac-12 schools that is bowl-eligible. Here is a look at the projected win totals for the former Pac-12 schools (from ESPN’s FPI):

Oregon: 10.2
Utah: 9.3
Washington: 8.7
USC: 8.6
Arizona State: 7.3
Arizona: 6.5
WSU: 6.4
California: 6.1
Colorado: 4.7
Stanford: 4.3
UCLA: 3.6
Oregon State: 3

If Oregon makes it to the CFP as expected, then Utah, Washington, and USC will likely go to the Alamo, Holiday, and Las Vegas bowls (too early to tell which one for each). If Oregon stumbles, then USC or UW have a chance to sneak into the CFP-whichever one wins their final 4 games. Utah still has a chance to win the Big12; and if they do, they have a chance to make the CFP.

The other former Pac-12 teams that get to bowl eligibility will likely be going to the other 3 bowl games. Right now it looks like 4 more will make it to bowl games, so as many as 8 will make it to a bowl game. If more than 7 do make bowl-eligibility, there will likely be another bowl game that will need a team to fill in, so expect that any former Pac-12 team that becomes bowl-eligible will end up in a bowl game.

Final Notes

Before the season started, the game this weekend between Ohio State and Penn State appeared to be a pivotal game for the Big Ten conference championship as well as for the CFP. Obviously the CFP is no longer an option for Penn State. But this game should tell us how Penn State responds after losing James Franklin. Do they play like a top-25 team (which is how they are ranked in some of the advanced stats), or like a team that no longer has much to play for? As noted above, if they don’t start playing better, they will be in danger of not making a bowl game this season.

Six of the Big Ten teams are off this weekend, including UW. So far Big Ten teams are 9-9 coming off of byes. Will that change as we head into the final month of the regular season?

UW is a heavy favorite against their next 3 opponents. That, however, is a two-edged sword. While it means that UW should be 9-2 when they host Oregon in the final game of the regular season, it will also mean that they may not move up much since they will not have many quality wins. UW needs to hope that Illinois wins their remaining games so that UW’s win over Illinois looks better. And UW needs to have WSU win their remaining games (they are favored in 3 of the 4) so that the Apple Cup win looks better. Those are the only 2 FBS teams that UW will likely beat this season that will end up with a winning record-prior to playing Oregon.

If you see any bowl projections that have UW going anywhere other than the Alamo, Holiday, or Las Vegas bowls (or the CFP), ignore them. At this point there is very little chance that UW will be in any other bowl game besides those.