Which March Madness Teams Are Defying Expectations and Dividing Experts?
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KenPom: 54
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Torvik: 56
The predictive metrics haven’t caught up to the results-based metrics after Cal knocked off UNC, Stanford and Miami to emerge from a three-game losing skid. The Golden Bears have played their way onto the NCAA tournament bubble and have no bad losses on their ledger. A few closer-than-expected results facing a weak nonconference schedule leaves them limited margin for error the next month.
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KenPom: 57
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Torvik: 70
The Cowboys look like they could provide a window into how the NCAA tournament selection committee judges a team that does well in nonconference play only to then stumble in conference action. Oklahoma State is considered the 12th-best team in the Big 12 by predictive metrics after it started league play with five losses in eight games. But it’s nearly 22 spots higher nationally, on average, in results-based metrics thanks to early wins over Texas A&M, USF, Northwestern and Grand Canyon that have aged better than expected. The Cowboys still have a shot based on the strength of the Big 12.
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