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Which March Madness Teams Are Defying Expectations and Dividing Experts?

Which March Madness Teams Are Defying Expectations and Dividing Experts?

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UCF (17-4)

UCF Knights guard Riley Kugel (2) dunks the ball during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Gallagher-Iba Arena on Jan. 6, 2026.
UCF Knights guard Riley Kugel (2) dunks the ball during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Gallagher-Iba Arena on Jan. 6, 2026.

  • KenPom: 45

  • Torvik: 46

The Knights’ résumé won’t be straightforward for selection committee members if UCF continues on its current trajectory, with the predictive metrics of a bubble team and results more in line with a top-six seed. The Knights didn’t test themselves much in the nonconference schedule, but got a key road win over Texas A&M, already beat Kansas and Texas Tech in Big 12 play and have no bad losses. Coach Johnny Dawkins is having his best season since he last made the NCAA tournament in 2019.

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