Which Underdog Women’s Teams Are Poised to Shock and Secure Automatic NCAA Tournament Bids?

March is more than just a month—it’s a full-on frenzy in the world of women’s college basketball. Every year, you get the drama, the heartbreak, and those eye-popping upsets that make you wonder if the NCAA tournament itself might be the calm after the storm. But this season? It feels like the excitement dial just got turned way up. Why? Because the balance of power is shakier than ever before, with more parity filtering through the leagues. Suddenly, those conference tournaments aren’t just a formality—they’re the battlegrounds that could reshape the entire NCAA landscape.

And let’s be honest: with teams fighting tooth and nail for those automatic bids—or clawing to shove themselves off the bubble—the stakes couldn’t be higher. Single elimination means every possession counts, which translates to some of the most edge-of-your-seat basketball you’ll see all year. To make sense of all the chaos, we ran thousands of simulations for each conference tournament using TRACR—a sophisticated metric that weighs a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency against the strength of their opponents. To put it simply, it’s like giving you a sneak peek into who’s got the best shot at glory, down to the decimal point.

So, whether you’re a die-hard fan dreaming of Cinderella stories or a stats junkie hungry for data-driven insights, we’re breaking down the odds, surprises, and storylines. Ready to find out which teams our supercomputer favors as they chase those coveted automatic NCAA bids? Let’s dive right in.

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Weâre diving through each league and revealing who our supercomputerâs favorites are in our NCAA womenâs basketball conference tournament predictions.

March is an exciting time in womenâs basketball every season. But this season might be even better.

Conference tournaments are the final note of record when the selection committee decides where to seed each team. With more parity in womenâs hoops than in years past, the seedings could go a long way toward determining the eventual champion. So it stands to reason these conference tournaments are more important than ever.

Thatâs not even mentioning the teams that need to win their conference tournaments in order to get into the NCAA tournament. Or the teams that need a strong performance to move off the bubble. So much is at stake in these single-elimination tournaments, making these games some of the best basketball youâll see all year.

Weâve simulated each conference tournament thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster). It is a net efficiency metric that calculates a teamâs points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

TRACR represents how many points per 100 possessions above or below average a team is. An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more. As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 is projected to outscore an average team by .20 points per possession (20 divided by 100) in a game. If the game had 70 possessions, then that team would be expected to outscore the average team by 0.2*70=14 points.

Weâre going to dive through each conference, starting with the first league tourneys to get underway this week, and see who our modelâs favorites are. The teams within each conference are ranked by the highest probability of winning the league tournament, with that probability in parentheses.

Note: Conference tournament win probabilities for each team are their projected chances entering the conference tournament. Some conferences are still finishing their regular season. These projections will continually update after the end of each conferenceâs regular season.

Big West

Hawaii (29.4%)
UC Irvine (27.2%)
UC Davis (23.2%)
UC San Diego (14.5%)
UC Santa Barbara (2.7%)
Long Beach State (1.3%)
UC Riverside (1.1%)
Cal Poly (0.9%)

It could be anybodyâs chance to dance in the Big West, but Hawaii and UC Irvine get the big advantage with a double bye. The Rainbow Wahine beat the Anteaters in both meetings this season, with both games being decided by five or fewer points.

One might root for UC San Diego in this one though, as this is the first season the Tritons are even eligible for the NCAA Tournament. They barely missed a double bye in the conference tournament, having close losses against Hawaii, UC Irvine and UC Davis.

Whichever team makes it out of what might be a chaotic tournament will have a 15 or 16 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

CAA

Charleston (46.6%)
North Carolina A&T (20.3%)
Campbell (14.3%)
Drexel (7.5%)
Hofstra (2.4%)
Monmouth (2.2%)
Delaware (2.0%)
Elon (1.7%)
Stony Brook (1.1%)
UNCW (0.9%)
Towson (0.9%)
William & Mary (0.4%)
Hampton (0.1%)
Northeastern (<0.1%)

North Carolina A&T won the CAA regular season title, but TRACR gives the advantage to second-seeded Charleston. Since losing to North Carolina A&T on Feb. 7, the Cougars have won eight in a row, outscoring opponents by 23.8 points per game.

This includes a 48-point win over Northeastern and a 40-point victory over Elon.

MAC

Ball State (34.2%)
Buffalo (17.2%)
Kent State (13.8%)
Toledo (13.8%)
Bowling Green (11.6%)
Miami (OH) (5.8%)
Central Michigan (2.9%)
Western Michigan (0.9%)

Ball State has not reached the NCAA Tournament since 2009, when it beat Pat Summittâs Tennessee squad in a 12-5 upset, becoming the only team to ever beat Pat Summit in the first round. Could history repeat itself? The Volunteers are projected to be a 4 or 5 seed while the Cardinals could be a 12 or 13 seed.

Ball State may have a tough challenge in the second round against Kent State. The Golden Flashes beat the Cardinals 60-54 on the road on Feb. 22. Ball State responded by winning its last four regular season games, holding those opponents to 55.0 points.

MEAC

Norfolk State (65.1%)
Howard (19.4%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (8.7%)
Coppin State (6.4%)
Morgan State (0.5%)
North Carolina Central (0.1%)
Delaware State (<0.1%)
South Carolina State (<0.1%)

Norfolk State has won each of the last two MEAC tournaments, finishing on top in the regular season both times while also playing the conference tournament games on its home court. These Spartans may be the best of those three seasons, going 14-0 in conference play.

They have won 16 in a row since losing to North Carolina by 43, including a win at Auburn. In those 16 games, they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 29.8 points.

Missouri Valley

Murray State (33.8%)
Belmont (20.2%)
Drake (18.9%)
Missouri State (16.3%)
UNI (6.1%)
Illinois State (2.6%)
UIC (1.7%)
Bradley (0.4%)
Valparaiso (0.2%)
Evansville (<0.1%)
Indiana State (<0.1%)
Southern Illinois (<0.1%)

Missouri State and Murray State clinched a share of the Missouri Valley title, but the Racers got the No. 1 seed since they finished higher in the NET. They needed to rally at the end of the season to clinch a share, and boy did they â they won their last seven games while averaging 88.9 points. Murray State averages 87.7 points on the season, highest in Division I.

Which Belmont team will we see? The Bruins won 10 in a row between January and February, then had a four-game losing streak that cost them a regular season title. They bounced back to win four in a row to end the regular season, outscoring opponents by an average of 21.0 points.

Ivy League

Columbia (47.3%)
Harvard (34.4%)
Princeton (16.8%)
Penn (1.6%)

Ivy Madness comes with huge implications, as Columbia, Harvard and Princeton are all vying for a tourney spot. It is likely that the league will get two teams in the NCAA Tournament, with the winner having a No. 10 seed and the at-large playing in one of the First Four games.

Columbia has won 15 of its last 16 games dating back to Dec. 21, holding opponents to 52.8 points per game. Harvard has held opponents to 51.2 points per game all season, lowest in Division I. Princeton and Columbia both beat the Crimson in the regular season, scoring at least 70 points in those games. The Tigers won both of their matchups against Harvard but lost their two matchups against Columbia.

MAAC

Fairfield (53.7%)
Quinnipiac (32.6%)
Mount St. Mary’s (4.9%)
Siena (2.6%)
Merrimack (2.1%)
Manhattan (1.9%)
Marist (1.5%)
Saint Peter’s (0.6%)
Iona (0.4%)
Canisius (0.1%)

Fairfield was so close to a 20-0 conference record this season before Quinnipiac spoiled the run in the last game of the regular season. Still, the 19-1 record earned the Stags the top spot in the conference and they look to go to the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year.

Last season, they entered the big dance with a 31-1 record but were blown out by Indiana in the first round, 89-56.

Fairfield or Quinnipiac could be a pesky 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Thereâs an 86.3% chance that one of those two teams will represent the MAAC, per TRACR.

Conference USA

Liberty (33.0%)
Middle Tennessee (32.9%)
Western Kentucky (21.6%)
New Mexico State (7.6%)
Louisiana Tech (2.8%)
Kennesaw State (1.0%)
Jacksonville State (0.6%)
FIU (0.5%)
Sam Houston (0.2%)
UTEP (0.1%)

It will be neck and neck between Liberty and Middle Tennessee, two teams that squared off in the Conference USA Final last year. This has been the Blue Raidersâ conference lately, punching their ticket in three of the last four conference tournaments. Liberty has not made it to the NCAA Tournament since 2018, when it was a member of the Big South.

A dark horse candidate will be New Mexico State. Molly Kaiser led the conference in scoring at 20.8 points per game. She was held to just seven and three points against Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky, respectively. The graduate senior ranks third all-time in points in school history.

SWAC

Southern (29.8%)
Alabama A&M (26.8%)
Grambling State (9.9%)
Texas Southern (8.6%)
Jackson State (8.3%)
Alcorn State (6.5%)
Florida A&M (5.1%)
Bethune-Cookman (4.1%)
Prairie View A&M (0.6%)
Mississippi Valley State (0.6%)

For a SWAC team, finishing the regular season with a 21-9 record is pretty impressive given that the nonconference schedule is typically packed with road games. That is exactly what Alabama A&M did, having a 7-5 record in nonconference play and a 14-4 record versus SWAC opponents.

The Bulldogs ended the regular season with one of the worst offensive games of the season in Division I, a 48-35 win over Southern. The Jaguars scored only two points in the second quarter! Still, these two teams could meet in the final. Alabama A&M will first have to get past Texas Southern in a possible semifinal matchup. The Lady Tigers beat the Bulldogs on the road in January, 75-65.

WAC

Grand Canyon (65.1%)
Tarleton State (11.5%)
UT Arlington (8.3%)
Abilene Christian (8.2%)
Utah Valley (4.4%)
Southern Utah (1.4%)
California Baptist (1.2%)
Utah Tech (0.1%)
Seattle (<0.1%)

Grand Canyon holds Division Iâs longest active winning streak at 27 games. The Antelopes crushed conference play, going 16-0 while outscoring their opponents by an average of 20.3 points. They even have wins over Arizona State and Arizona this season. This will be the team to watch out for as a possible upset candidate in the NCAA tournament â expect them to be a 12 seed, maybe even an 11 seed.

Southland

Lamar (34.8%)
Southeastern Louisiana (33.7%)
Stephen F. Austin (24.7%)
UIW (3.4%)
Northwestern State (1.6%)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (0.8%)
Nicholls (0.7%)
UT Rio Grande Valley (0.5%)

TRACR gives the slight advantage to the No. 2 seed Lamar, but it will have tough competition with a possible Stephen F. Austin matchup looming in the semifinals. The Ladyjacks have won 12 in a row, including a win over Lamar at home.

Whichever team makes it out of this tournament will likely represent the conference as a No. 15 or No. 16 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

NEC

Fairleigh Dickinson (73.5%)
Stonehill (11.1%)
Central Connecticut State (4.8%)
Saint Francis U (3.5%)
Le Moyne (3.0%)
Chicago State (2.1%)
Wagner (1.3%)
LIU (0.9%)

Fairleigh Dickinson has won 19 games in a row after losing to Rutgers by 25 on Dec. 11. The Knights held conference opponents to 50.3 points per game in the regular season, the sixth lowest by any Division I team. This conference tournament is played at the campus site of the higher seed, so Fairleigh Dickinson will have home court advantage â they went 14-0 at home this season. No other team in the Northeast has had an answer.

Chicago State could be a dark horse. Yes, the Cougars are just 6-25, but they have had some of the worst luck in Division I. All but three of their 16 conference games in the regular season were decided by seven or fewer points, including four that went to overtime, and they went 3-10 in them. But they’ve won their last two games heading into the postseason.

AAC

UTSA (27.5%)
South Florida (18.3%)
Temple (17.5%)
North Texas (15.9%)
Tulsa (5.7%)
Rice (5.6%)
Tulane (4.2%)
East Carolina (3.2%)
Wichita State (0.8%)
UAB (0.8%)
Memphis (0.4%)
Florida Atlantic (0.2%)
Charlotte (0.1%)

UTSA has not made it to the NCAA Tournament since 2009, when it was a member of the Southland Conference. The Roadrunners have won 19 of their last 20 games, with the lone loss coming against South Florida. USF had won nine in a row before dropping its last two in the regular season.

The AAC is likely a one-bid league this season, with the winner of the conference tournament likely to be a No. 13 or No. 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

ASUN

FGCU (59.6%)
Central Arkansas (12.2%)
Lipscomb (11.2%)
Eastern Kentucky (7.6%)
Bellarmine (2.9%)
North Alabama (2.3%)
Jacksonville (2.0%)
Austin Peay (1.6%)
Stetson (0.7%)
West Georgia (0.2%)

It may not be Dunk City, but FGCUâs performance in the Atlantic Sun can only be described as dominant. The Eagles have won 51 consecutive games versus conference opponents and look to reach the NCAA Tournament for a fifth consecutive season.

Big East

UConn (85.6%)
Creighton (8.7%)
Marquette (2.3%)
Seton Hall (2.1%)
Villanova (0.5%)
St. John’s (0.4%)
DePaul (0.3%)
Georgetown (0.2%)
Butler (0.1%)
Providence (<0.1%)
Xavier (<0.1%)

Will UConn get a No. 1 seed with a tournament win? TRACR gives them high odds to win the conference tournament, and project the Huskies and Creighton as the only Big East teams to dance. UConn has only three losses on the season, and outscored conference opponents by an average of 34.1 points â by far the highest margin for any D-I team. The Huskies might need an early loss from USC, South Carolina, UCLA or Texas to bump up to a No. 1 seed even if they win the Big East tournament.

Creighton could be a sneaky team in the NCAA Tournament. The team went 16-2 in Big East play this season with both losses coming against UConn. The Bluejays’ performance in the conference tournament could land them anywhere from a No. 6 seed to a No. 9 seed.

Big Sky

Montana State (45.6%)
Northern Arizona (29.9%)
Idaho (9.8%)
Idaho State (4.8%)
Weber State (3.1%)
Montana (3.0%)
Northern Colorado (2.3%)
Sacramento State (0.9%)
Eastern Washington (0.7%)
Portland State (0.1%)

Montana State had won 19 in a row before losing to Sacramento State at home. It bounced back to beat Idaho on the road, finishing with a 17-1 record in regular season conference play.

Northern Arizona looks to avoid a Buffalo Bills-like curse in losing four consecutive championship games. The Lumberjacks have been the runner-up for three consecutive Big Sky tournaments. They finished 16-2 in conference play, with both losses coming against Montana State.

Patriot League

Lehigh (34.7%)
Army West Point (21.9%)
Colgate (16.8%)
Holy Cross (10.7%)
Navy (9.4%)
Bucknell (5.0%)
Boston University (1.0%)
Loyola Maryland (0.5%)
Lafayette (0.3%)
American (<0.1%)

Each game will be played at the campus site for the higher seed, giving an advantage to top-seeded Lehigh and No. 2 seed Army. The only team that beat Lehigh at home in the regular season was Colgate, which also took down the Mountain Hawks in Hamilton.

Colgate will have to handle Bucknell first before thinking about a possible upset over Lehigh in the conference tournament final. The Raiders lost both of their meetings to the Bison, scoring only 34 points in their meeting in Hamilton.

Mountain West

UNLV (52.1%)
Wyoming (17.2%)
Colorado State (13.5%)
San Diego State (9.3%)
New Mexico (3.2%)
Boise State (2.0%)
Air Force (1.7%)
Fresno State (0.9%)
Utah State (0.2%)
Nevada (0.1%)
San Jose State (0.1%)

UNLV is 17-1 since Dec. 21, with its lone loss coming at San Diego State by one point. Of those 17 wins, nine have been by at least 20 points. The Lady Rebels have made it to three consecutive NCAA Tournaments with impressive records but have lost in the first round each time. If they do not win the Mountain West tournament, it is possible they still dance, but would likely be one of the last four teams in and will play in the First Four.

Wyoming has won eight of its last nine games, holding opponents to 53.9 points on average. UNLV averages the most points in the Mountain West (75.8), while Wyoming allows the fewest points per game in the conference (58.4).

Horizon League

Green Bay (43.7%)
Purdue Fort Wayne (32.6%)
Cleveland State (19.1%)
Robert Morris (2.5%)
Northern Kentucky (1.2%)
IU Indianapolis (0.4%)
Detroit (0.3%)
Wright State (0.1%)
Oakland (0.1%)
Youngstown (0.1%)
Milwaukee (0.1%)

Green Bay went 19-1 in conference play, with its only loss coming on the road against Purdue Fort Wayne, 67-66 back on Dec. 7. The two teams met on March 1, resulting in a 68-63 overtime win for the Phoenix. If these two teams meet in the final, it should be quite close.

Sun Belt

James Madison (49.9%)
Troy (16.3%)
Arkansas State (14.6%)
Coastal Carolina (12.7%)
Old Dominion (3.3%)
Louisiana (1.8%)
Marshall (0.5%)
Georgia Southern (0.4%)
ULM (0.3%)
Georgia State (0.2%)
App State (0.2%)
Texas State (0.1%)
Southern Miss (0.1%)
South Alabama (<0.1%)

Marshall denied James Madisonâs bid to the NCAA Tournament last season, beating the Dukes in a championship game thriller, 95-92 in overtime. James Madison responded by going 18-0 in conference play this season â the Dukes have not lost since Dec. 19.

ACC

Notre Dame (47.9%)
Duke (14.9%)
North Carolina State (14.1%)
Florida State (12.8%)
North Carolina (4.0%)
Georgia Tech (2.0%)
California (1.7%)
Louisville (1.5%)
Virginia Tech (0.6%)
Stanford (0.4%)
Boston College (0.2%)
Virginia (0.2%)
Syracuse (<0.1%)
Clemson (<0.1%)
Pittsburgh (<0.1%)

In one of the games of the year, North Carolina State took down Notre Dame in double overtime at home on Feb. 23, earning the top spot in the ACC tournament. Notre Dame went on to lose to Florida State at home a few days later.

Still, TRACR favors the Irish to win the ACC tournament thanks to the outstanding play of Hannah Hidalgo, Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron. Each player is ranked in the top 10 in WAR. This may be the strongest Notre Dame group since Ruth Riley and Niele Ivey won the title in 2001 (yes, even better than Ogunbowaleâs title run).

It will be a tough route to win the ACC tournament, though. Duke and North Carolina State are also looking to get a No. 2 seed by winning the ACC tournament, while North Carolina could end up with a No. 3 seed if it wins.

Big 12

Baylor (26.3%)
TCU (25.2%)
West Virginia (19.2%)
Kansas State (14.4%)
Oklahoma State (7.0%)
Utah (5.6%)
Iowa State (1.8%)
Colorado (0.3%)
Arizona (0.2%)
Kansas (0.1%)
Cincinnati (0.1%)
BYU (<0.1%)
UCF (<0.1%)
Texas Tech (<0.1%)
Arizona State (<0.1%)
Houston (<0.1%)

Who knows what the top four teams in the conference might do? TCU beat Baylor to end the regular season but lost to Kansas State in February. West Virginia lost to Baylor and TCU in the regular season but beat Kansas State. It looked like Kansas State could win the regular season title, then the Wildcats ended the season losing three of its last four. As a result, Kansas State fell to the No. 5 seed in the tournament and Oklahoma State, which has wins over West Virginia, Kansas State, and TCU, became the No. 3 seed. This will be wild!

But with all of that, an extreme dark horse to win this tournament might be Iowa State. The Cyclones have won six of their last seven, all by double digits. Audi Crooks â you might remember her from having a 40-point game in last yearâs NCAA Tournament â is averaging 23.0 points and 7.7 rebounds this season. Feed her the ball inside and Iowa State could make a deep run, but the Cyclones will have to win four games to secure a conference tournament title, which TRACR doesn’t see as likely.

The Big 12 will likely have seven teams in the NCAA Tournament, and a deep run by Arizona could make it eight.

Big Ten

USC (44.6%)
UCLA (22.6%)
Ohio State (13.1%)
Michigan State (5.5%)
Maryland (5.5%)
Michigan (3.4%)
Iowa (1.8%)
Illinois (1.1%)
Oregon (1.0%)
Indiana (0.7%)
Washington (0.6%)
Nebraska (0.3%)
Minnesota (0.1%)
Wisconsin (<0.1%)
Rutgers (<0.1%)

USC took down UCLA on the road on March 1 to secure its first Big Ten regular season title. JuJu Watkins was spectacular, finishing with 30 points and five assists. Thereâs a reason why she leads Division I in WAR this season.

A rematch could happen in the Big Ten title game, and the winner is almost certain to receive a top seed in the NCAA Tournament. But how many Big Ten teams could get in? Perhaps the most crucial game in this tournament will come in the first round, as Minnesota and Washington are both on the bubble. The winner will likely make it and the loser may miss out on dancing.

The Big Ten could have as many as 13 teams in the NCAA Tournament â the most in a single season in D-I womenâs history is nine, set by the 2011 Big East and matched by the 2016 SEC.

Big South

High Point (48.2%)
Longwood (23.8%)
Charleston Southern (7.5%)
Gardner-Webb (6.9%)
Radford (6.4%)
Winthrop (5.3%)
USC Upstate (1.2%)
UNC Asheville (0.6%)
Presbyterian (0.5%)

High Point picked it up towards the end of the season, winning 10 of its last 11 games en route to the team’s second straight regular season title. The Panthers were upset by Presbyterian in the semifinals last season and have lost to No. 2 Longwood and No. 3 Radford earlier this year. They have made it to only one Division I NCAA Tournament (2021).

SEC

South Carolina (34.3%)
Texas (28.9%)
Oklahoma (10.0%)
LSU (9.5%)
Kentucky (5.7%)
Alabama (4.3%)
Tennessee (4.2%)
Ole Miss (2.3%)
Vanderbilt (1.0%)
Mississippi State (0.1%)
Auburn (0.1%)
Florida (<0.1%)
Georgia (<0.1%)
Arkansas (<0.1%)
Missouri (<0.1%)
Texas A&M (<0.1%)

South Carolina needed a buzzer-beating 3 to beat Tennessee in last yearâs SEC tournament (it was Kamilla Cardosoâs only 3-point attempt of the season), and the title game over LSU was filled with drama. Those were two of the Gamecocksâ toughest games in an undefeated season. What does the SEC tournament have in store for us this time?

Adding Texas into the SEC mix makes this a whole different ballgame. Since losing to South Carolina on Jan. 12, the Longhorns have won 13 in a row, including six wins over ranked opponents and a win over both the Gamecocks and the Tigers. The Longhorns might still get a top seed in the NCAA Tournament even with an early loss in the SEC tournament.

And while LSU finished the regular season with a 27-4 record, TRACR has the Tigers ranked lower than the NET and other sites. At 15th, the Tigers are still a force to be reckoned with, but that puts five SEC teams ahead of them. LSU looks to bounce back in the tournament after losing three of its last five in the regular season.

Summit League

South Dakota State (68.5%)
Oral Roberts (17.7%)
North Dakota State (8.9%)
St. Thomas (MN) (2.6%)
North Dakota (1.2%)
Omaha (0.5%)
South Dakota (0.4%)
Kansas City (0.3%)
Denver (0.1%)

South Dakota State has not lost a conference game since Jan. 8, 2022. The Jackrabbitsâ 56-game winning streak versus conference opponents is the longest active streak in Division I, men’s or women’s. Brooklyn Meyer is shooting 64.0% from the field this season, highest among all D-I women with at least 300 attempts.

Atlantic 10

Richmond (39.5%)
Saint Joseph’s (23.0%)
George Mason (19.6%)
Davidson (8.2%)
Rhode Island (4.1%)
Massachusetts (1.9%)
VCU (1.6%)
Duquesne (1.3%)
Dayton (0.7%)
Fordham (0.2%)
Loyola Chicago (0.1%)
La Salle (0.1%)

Richmond is in its golden era, going 17-1 in conference play after going 16-2 the year before. Maggie Doogan is one of two players with at least 500 points, 200 rebounds, 100 assists and 30 blocks on the season, along with UConnâs Sarah Strong.

Saint Josephâs is on the bubble. The Hawks will likely need an appearance in the tournament final to get in. George Mason was on the bubble for most of the season but now will likely need to win the tournament in order to get in.

America East

Albany (45.7%)
Vermont (36.6%)
Bryant (5.0%)
Maine (4.5%)
Binghamton (3.9%)
NJIT (1.9%)
New Hampshire (1.8%)
UMBC (0.8%)

Having the top seed may be critical for Albany, as games are played on the higher-seed’s home court in the America East tournament. Vermont beat Albany in its most recent matchup on Feb. 8 but lost to the Great Danes in Albany on Jan. 2. Whichever team advances to the Big Dance will likely represent the conference as a 15 or 16 seed.

Ohio Valley

Tennessee Tech (45.6%)
Lindenwood (20.3%)
Eastern Illinois (13.1%)
Southern Indiana (10.6%)
Little Rock (5.0%)
UT Martin (3.4%)
Western Illinois (1.6%)
Tennessee State (0.5%)

Tennessee Tech has won 15 games in a row, outscoring opponents by 15.2 points on average. Its latest win came against Lindenwood, a 77-59 blowout to secure the regular season title. A tournament win for the Golden Eaglettes would be their second in the last three years.

Southern

UNCG (37.3%)
Chattanooga (23.4%)
East Tennessee State (16.9%)
Wofford (10.4%)
Samford (4.8%)
Western Carolina (4.2%)
Furman (2.6%)
Mercer (0.6%)

UNCG has made only one Division I NCAA Tournament appearance back in 1998, but once finished as the runner-up in the 1982 Division III NCAA Tournament. The Spartans bounced back from a 62-39 blowout loss against Wofford to win 11 in a row to end the regular season. The winner of this tournament will likely be a No. 16 seed.

West Coast

Portland (35.6%)
Gonzaga (28.6%)
Washington State (15.0%)
Oregon State (12.1%)
San Francisco (5.8%)
Saint Mary’s (1.2%)
Pacific (0.9%)
Santa Clara (0.6%)
Loyola Marymount (0.2%)
San Diego (0.1%)
Pepperdine (<0.1%)

Portland has danced in back-to-back tournaments, but this is its first regular-season conference title since 1996-97. It shared the title with Gonzaga, who beat the Pilots in both meetings this season by a combined six points. It’s likely the WCC is a one-bid league this year, meaning a possible Portland-Gonzaga final will have major implications.

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