Why Betting on the Commanders in Week 5 Could Be the Smartest Move You Make Today

Four weeks into the 2025-26 NFL season, and here we are, already tipping the scales on a quarter of the grind. It’s that peculiar moment when the fog of preseason hype starts to clear — stats are no longer just numbers on a page, but signals flashing patterns we can trust. The early betting whispers from the preseason? They’re quickly losing steam as the real action takes center stage and market moves in real-time begin to tell their own compelling story. Yet, there’s a twist we can’t afford to ignore: injuries, those unwelcome guests, are shaping the landscape like never before. Cluster injuries — a term that’s becoming all too familiar — are wiping out chunks of key units, throwing a wrench into strategies and odds alike.

In this gnarly ecosystem of shifting tides, understanding who’s healthy and who’s hobbling off the field is just as crucial as knowing the plays themselves. And with Week 5 on the horizon, the market is ripe for some savvy moves. Last week’s advice didn’t just hold water — it surged ahead with a perfect record, and this time around, I’m spotlighting two picks that look impossible to pass on. Buckle up, because the game isn’t just on the field — it’s in how we read the lines and sniff out value that others miss.

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Four weeks of the 2025-26 NFL season are in the books and we have hit the unofficial quarter mark of the NFL regular season.

In terms of handicapping, being 25% into the season has a few implications. We can begin to place reliable importance on stats and observations from this season. Trends can be seen as patterns and not situational variance. We can downgrade the importance of preseason priors. How a team moved in preseason betting markets like season win totals matters less than what’s happening in the market in the first few weeks of game action. And finally, an unfortunate truth is that we need to upgrade the importance of a team’s health and its subsequent injury report.

As more games go on — and sadly, as more players get hurt — we start to see things like cluster injuries appear. A cluster injury refers to a team losing multiple players in the same unit (multiple offensive line injuries for the Minnesota Vikings or Los Angeles Chargers, for example).

Let’s use these strategies to attack the Week 5 odds and try to get ahead of the market. This Tuesday article has produced very consistent bets that kick off with closing line value. Last week all three closed ahead of the market, and ended up going 3-0 in results as well.

This week there are only two NFL spots I strongly recommend to bet now.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 47.5)

This is a bet that aims to time the market perfectly on injury information, and puts weighted information on a cluster injury group.

I expect the Commanders to get Jayden Daniels back for this game. Despite being ruled out a full day early last week against the Falcons in Week 4, Daniels did get some practice time, being listed as a limited participant as early as last Wednesday. By Thursday of this week, it would be no surprise to see Daniels upgraded to a full participant and outright removed from the injury report, which would have major implications on the betting market.

On the Chargers side, Rashawn Slater was lost in preseason to a torn patellar tendon, while right guard Mekhi Becton missed last week’s game with a concussion. Then Joe Alt, who moved from his right tackle position to the other side and took over as the coveted left tackle, departed Sunday’s game with a high ankle sprain. The most recent reports show Alt is going to get a second opinion, but according to Adam Schefter he is “unlikely to miss a lot of time.” High ankle sprains usually mean a few weeks are missed; and even if Alt plays he should be limited in his capabilities. If Alt or Becton continue to miss another game, it is easy to classify this situation as a cluster injury to the Chargers’ offensive line.

The Chargers have the highest Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) through the first four weeks of the season. Injuries to the offensive line are going to disrupt QB Justin Herbert’s time to evaluate his options down the field and will force the Chargers to change the game plan that has gotten them off to a 3-1 start this season.

Given all of these factors, including a slight upgrade on the Chargers side and a slight downgrade on the Commanders side for performance thus far, I currently have these teams dead even in the power rankings. This line should be closer to Chargers -1.5, making the early week value on the Commanders.

Bet: Commanders +2.5 (-102) and ML +125

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 45.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The handicap to this game factors increased importance to what we are seeing on the field this season and downgrading our preseason priors. Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Jaguars are top six in the pass rate over expectation, which measures how often a team in a running down situation actually opts for a pass play. Obviously passing attempts increase the yards gained per play, and decrease the game-time between plays because incompletions stop the clock. Teams with high PROE teams are ones to bet towards the over.

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Last season’s Jacksonville team wasn’t even in the top 10 in this advanced stat. Similarly, despite the Chiefs always throwing a lot in the Mahomes era, they had a very low rate of explosive plays last year. Kansas City used short passes as a de facto run game. They averaged just 22.6 points per game, ranking 15th in the NFL. This season, they’re already up to just over 24 PPG through four games. The addition of Xavier Worthy for Kansas City in Week 4 showed to be significant to their downfield playmaking abilities, and the result was a season high in scoring against the Baltimore Ravens.

The betting market has already taken this total up from a Week 5 open of 44.5 to a consensus 45.5, but I think there is another full point of value to be gained, and this will close next Monday night at 46.5 or higher.

Bet: Over 45.5