Why Betting on the Panthers Over the Patriots in Week 4 Could Be the Smartest ‘Square’ Move You Make

Here’s a curious paradox for NFL Week 4: more bets are being tossed onto the Carolina Panthers, yet the heftier piles of cash side with the New England Patriots. This classic “Pros vs. Joes” tug-of-war—where the pros wave dollar bills and the Joes lay down tickets—has me scratching my head. Why is New England, which can’t seem to catch a break, favored over a Panthers squad coming off a shutout? Sure, the Patriots boast a better quarterback in Drake Maye, but beyond that, Carolina shines brighter in nearly every facet. Is it just Boston’s faithful, led by heavyweights like Bill Simmons and Dave Portnoy, skewing the odds? Or is there some hidden logic in a town where Stefon Diggs is too busy off the field to carry the offense, and the offensive line resembles a sieve? The numbers tell one story—Carolina’s defense ranks high, New England’s vaguely disastrous—but the market insists otherwise. If you’re wondering whether it’s insanity or insight to side with the Panthers against the spread, well, so am I. But hey, sometimes the best bets are the ones that make you a little uncomfortable, right? LEARN MORE

Pro Football Focus (PFF), Pregame.com, and BetMGM are all reporting that, as of Tuesday, more bets have been placed on the Carolina Panthers (1-2), while more money is on the New England Patriots (1-2) when they meet Sunday in NFL Week 4.

In the sports betting space, this is known as a Pros vs. Joes game, with the cash column representing the former and the bets column representing the latter. Well, call me a “sucker,” but I don’t see why New England is favored this much over Carolina.

Stick with me here …

Preseason, the Patriots’ average spread was 3.0 points better than the Panthers’. New England is 1-2 against the spread (ATS), and Carolina is 2-1 ATS. The Patriots lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers 21-14 in Week 3, and the Panthers shut out the Atlanta Falcons 30-0.

After last week, the market downgraded New England by 0.1 points and upgraded Carolina by 0.7 points, per Inpredictable.com. However, when you give the Patriots a 2.0-point boost for home-field, the market is still saying they are 3.5 points better than the Panthers on a neutral field.

… The dude doesn’t abide.

As crazy as this sounds, I truly believe noted Boston sports fans, Bill Simmons and Dave Portnoy, are the reason why New England is overrated in the market. I can’t figure out another reason why the Patriots are power-rated this much higher than the Panthers, because New England sucks.

First-year Patriots WR Stefon Diggs is washed and too busy making babies with Cardi B and Instagram models. RB Rhamondre Stevenson literally fumbled the game away last week. Highly-touted rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson is averaging 3.4 yards per rush. All five offensive line starters have a failing grade, per PFF.

Sports Reference has a “Simple Rating System” (SRS), which blends point differential with strength of schedule. New England is 29th in SRS (-11.01), whereas Carolina is sixth (+8.66 SRS). Again, all I’m asking is, “Why are the Patriots more than -3 favorites over the Panthers this week?”

Sure, New England QB Drake Maye is better than Carolina QB Bryce Young. Maye has a higher PFF grade and a better QBR. Otherwise, the Panthers are better at every position. I’ll take Carolina rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan over any Patriots receiver, and Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard is better than Stevenson and Henderson.

Without No. 1 CB Christian Gonzalez, who might not play again this weekend, New England’s pass defense is getting shredded. Plus, the Patriots are the worst tackling team in the NFL, according to PFF, and Young has a below-average aDOT. So, whether it be by missed tackles or coverage breakdowns, Carolina’s offense should have success Sunday.

Furthermore, the Panthers are eighth in defensive EPA/play, compared to the Patriots, who are 26th, per RBSDM.com. And, as long as they are healthy, Carolina CB Jaycee Horn and DT Derrick Brown are ballers, which is more than you can say about any of New England’s defenders currently.

Maybe I’m stupidly buying high on the Panthers after they randomly trounced the Falcons last week. But, I just don’t see how you can lay more than a field goal with the Patriots against any NFL team right now. If I’m wrong, I’ll happily hold the L.

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