Why Kelly and Verlander’s Mastery Is Hidden Behind the Stats You Think You Know

Mother’s Day came and went, hopefully with more wins for moms than fantasy teams—but hey, speaking of wins, my bets actually paid off yesterday. I know, miraculous, right? Now, with spirits high and wallets a bit fuller, we’re turning our eyes to tonight’s matchup: the Diamondbacks versus the Giants at 9:45 ET. Both teams came into the season dreaming big—some more realistically than others—but as usual, baseball keeps serving up surprises. The D-backs, hovering just above .500, are showing flashes of life but desperately need their pitching to hold steady. Merrill Kelly’s been a roller coaster with an ERA that’s a bit deceptive, while the Giants, surprisingly sturdy at home and riding on the crease-beater Justin Verlander’s comeback trail, are looking tougher than many expected. So here’s the million-dollar question: will Kelly’s resilience overcome the giant-killing potential of Verlander, or is this quietly shaping up to be a pitching duel that sneaks under the radar? Let’s dig into the nuances before you decide to tune out the tape—or maybe place that next small wager. LEARN MORE.

Diamondbacks vs. Giants, 9:45 ET

I hope everyone out there had a wonderful Mother’s Day. I am not sure where you are at, but in my area, the weather was beautiful, the day was perfect, and the mothers were celebrated. I’d call the day successful. In terms of betting, the day was also successful with both of my plays cashing. It isn’t going to happen every day, but I was happy to give a bit more of a gift to readers. The goal now is to keep rolling as the Diamondbacks take on the Giants. 

Every year, every team enters into the season with hope that they can have everything click and have an amazing season. There are some that are probably more realistic than others, but the ultimate goal is to replicate and capitalize on any success from the previous years. The Diamondbacks are 21-20 for the season, and not quite where they want to be or where they are expected to be this year. Arizona does seem to be showing some signs of life, but they need the pitching staff to improve if they want to leverage the success of the past couple of years. Today they get a guy that’s pitching fairly well, but his ERA looks a bit rough at the moment. Merrill Kelly takes the ball tonight with a 3-2 record, 4.09 ERA, and a 1.05 WHIP. Kelly’s season has seen him all 20 earned runs, but nine of them came in one start against the Yankees. In roughly 40 other innings, he has allowed just 11 earned runs. Kelly has held Giants hitters to just .219 in over 150 at-bats against him. 

The Giants are one of the teams that I expected to be closer to the Rockies than they are close to the Dodgers. Clearly, I was wrong. To this point in the season, San Francisco is 24-17, and they’ve been very good at home with a 12-5 record. Last season, the Giants weren’t terrible, but they were very streaky. They would win six games, and then lose five. It was kind of strange watching how it would happen and seemed more like a hockey team than a baseball team. They added Justin Verlander to the roster this year hoping that he could bring a reliable arm to the rotation. He hasn’t been great yet, with an 0-2 record and a 4.50 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, but he is starting to trend towards being great again. The 42-year-old starter has allowed three or fewer runs in four straight starts and six of eight starts. Verlander has held Diamondbacks hitters to a .179 batting average over 95 at-bats. 

This game could probably go either way. Kelly has actually pitched really well, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Verlander take care of business as well. I think the under is probably the right choice here. The Giants have been too good at home for me to fade them in this situation, but I do think the Diamondbacks are slightly better even if their record doesn’t show that. Let’s avoid the moneyline and take the under. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024