“Why Ken Pomeroy’s Analytics Might Lead You Astray: A Warning from Justin Jackson”

In the world of college basketball, few names ring as widely recognized as Ken Pomeroy. A Virginia Tech alumnus turned meteorologist, Pomeroy’s influence weaves through the very fabric of the sport, like a well-executed pick and roll play. You might think it’s a bit odd to attribute the hiring of head coaches like Darian DeVries and Ross Hodge at West Virginia University to a guy who once chased clouds instead of rebounds, but that’s exactly where we find ourselves. His meticulously crafted KenPom rankings have revolutionized how teams evaluate their strategies, laying the groundwork for athletic director Wren Baker’s key decisions. If you’ve even dipped a toe into the college hoops scene over the past decade, the mention of “KenPom” conjures not just a name but an entire analytic ecosystem that informs coaching, recruitment, and game strategy.

But here’s where it gets intriguing: what happens when an analytic model that’s proven effective starts to feel like a crutch? Are we risking too much faith in numbers that can’t foresee the future? As we dive deeper into the dance of data and decision-making in college basketball, let’s be mindful that analytics, while powerful, might not have all the answers. After all, the game is always evolving…new talent emerges, strategies shift, and today’s model can become tomorrow’s outdated blueprint. Ready to explore this twisty road of analytics and instinct? Buckle up, because it could get interesting! LEARN MORE

Over a guy named Michael Jordan, who of course not only changed the game, but he also changed the analytics and metrics to how championship teams were built over his 13 years spent in Chicago.

Which is to say that analytics are right until they aren’t.

DeVries was also a defensive hire. In his one season at WVU, he had the Mountaineers ranked 15th overall defensively in KenPom.

Men’s college hoops coaches are so hell-bent today on defense, I would argue, because the list of truly impactful offensive players gets shorter each year.

That led to Peyton Manning. It led to Tom Brady, and it led to now every NFL team — apparently except for the Pittsburgh Steelers — giving up life and limb to find a quarterback.

What happened? Joe Montana happened. Jerry Rice happened. Bill Walsh happened. They looked at the old metrics and said, “Um, we can do it a different way.”

Hodge is considered a defensive guru among coaches. His North Texas team ranked 45th overall last season defensively, according to KenPom, and the Mean Green finished third in the country in points allowed.

I’m not out to get Pomeroy. I wasn’t against DeVries’ hiring, nor Hodge’s. I’m not against analytics, but the one thing you will not find in Pomeroy’s in-depth rankings is the future.

That led to Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Steph Curry and now centers are an afterthought in the pro game. Some teams don’t even bother putting one on the floor, unless it’s to block a shot or grab a rebound.

If you’ve followed college basketball at all over the last decade, you’ve heard KenPom thrown around.

Today, running backs are barely paid above the NFL minimum wage. They are not the stars — Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley being the exception — and they are rarely picked in the first or second round of the draft.

From that side of the coin, you would have to be a real idiot to not at least admit there is some correlation to Pomeroy’s rankings and success in college hoops.

Wilt Chamberlin, Bill Russell, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Bill Walton, you’ve likely heard of these guys.

He was also a meteorologist for the National Weather Service for 12 years, which is as close to basketball experience as a sportswriter is to being qualified to lead medical research.

“There is no evidence that somebody who’s not really good defensively can compete at a high level in the Big 12,” Baker said during Hodge’s introductory press conference on April 3.

What Pomeroy’s metrics simply tell you is what works today. That does not mean it will work tomorrow.

KenPom can’t tell you when that’s going to happen. For those who rely so heavily on his rankings, please take caution in that.

Pomeroy’s metrics ranked the Cougars as the No. 1 defensive team in the country, so there you go.

No one had ever heard of analytics 70 years ago, but if you were to analyze football back in those days, they would have said you need a star running back and an elite defense to win championships.

I would also argue that offensive innovation in the game is at an all-time low. There’s more creativity in this column than you’ll find being drawn up on most whiteboards in locker rooms across the country next season.

Going a step further, all the teams in this year’s Final Four — Houston, Florida, Duke and Auburn — all ranked in the top nine of Pomeroy’s defensive metrics.

It was that exact metric that led the Houston Rockets to selecting Hakeem Olajuwon No. 1 overall in 1984.

The theory I want to get out there is more of a cautionary tale.

More to the point, it was Pomeroy’s exhaustive KenPom rankings that paved most of the road that led WVU athletic director Wren Baker to hiring both guys.

NBA teams used to win championships with centers.

The biggest stars of my childhood were all running backs; Walter Payton, Tony Dorsett, Franco Harris and Earl Campbell. Before them were O.J. Simpson and Jim Brown.

There were a total of 20 players this season who averaged at least 20 points per game in men’s college hoops. In 2019, that number was 47.

MORGANTOWN — Ken Pomeroy is a graduate of Virginia Tech, which may make what we discuss in a few seconds all the more irritating.

But, yeah, he hired them.

Those details display how fast or slow a team plays on offense and how efficient a team is on defense based on every 100 possessions.

Someone is going to figure that out. The game will eventually change, it always has.

How’s that for analytics?

In short, Pomeroy is the father of basketball analytics, and his rankings for all 364 Division I men’s hoops teams has become a sort of bible for college coaches and athletic directors.

Now, Pomeroy technically didn’t hire Darian DeVries as the WVU men’s basketball coach in 2024. He technically didn’t hire Ross Hodge at WVU this year.

Today, I am your idiot, well, sort of.

Houston won the Big 12 this season, advanced to the Final Four and fell to Florida in the national title game.

His rankings are so detailed, that each team is evaluated not from game to game, but essentially possession by possession.

Baker, a former basketball coach himself, loves the defensive metrics, and has said so numerous times in his meetings with the media.