Why My Week 3 Vikings Over Bengals Bet Could Blow Up in Unexpected Ways

So here I was, deep in the throes of laying down a pro-Minnesota Vikings handicap for their Week 3 showdown against the Cincinnati Bengals — when bam! Out pops the news that rookie QB J.J. McCarthy won’t see the field due to injury. Interesting twist, right? The Vikings opened as hefty -4.5 favorites, even after a disappointing 22-6 drubbing by the Falcons on Sunday night. But hold on, because the line’s already shrunk to -3 once backup Carson Wentz was confirmed to step in. Wait a minute — has everyone overreacted to this QB carousel? Considering the Bengals showing a shaky defense, a suspect run game, and the fact their own starter, Joe Burrow—out with turf toe—won’t be playing for months, there’s more beneath the surface here than meets the eye. Could Wentz, often the NFL’s punching bag, actually be the secret weapon here? And what does the market frenzy tell us when 80% of bettors lean on the Bengals? Sometimes the best plays are found swimming against the current… LEARN MORE.

I was in the middle of writing a pro-Minnesota Vikings (1-1) handicap for their Week 3 home game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) when news broke that Minnesota’s first-year starting QB J.J. McCarthy would miss this game with an injury. The Vikings opened as -4.5 favorites at DraftKings after their 22-6 loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football. 

DraftKings released that spread, knowing Cincy second-string QB Jake Browning will replace Joe Burrow, who will be out for the next few months with turf toe. Yet, Minnesota’s spread has fallen to -3 across the board since announcing backup QB Carson Wentz would fill in for McCarthy. This is too big a line move based on various reasons I’ll discuss below. 

First of all, Cincy’s 31-27 win as -3.5 favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday was a bogus cover. Jacksonville could’ve, should’ve kicked a field goal on 4th-and-5 on Cincinnati’s seven-yard line to take a six-point lead with 3:47 remaining. Instead, the Jaguars failed to convert on fourth down, and the Bengals scored a game-winning 93-yard touchdown drive for the win and cover. 

Also, betting on teams the week after an ugly primetime loss is an old-school NFL handicapping angle because players and coaches usually respond with urgency. That angle is stronger here, given Cincy’s bad defense, inability to run the ball, or protect its passer. 

Furthermore, Minnesota’s defense, which ranked among the best against the run last year, should have no trouble forcing Browning into obvious passing downs. That opens the door for the Vikings’ pass rush to take over.

Are we sure Wentz is a downgrade from McCarthy? McCarthy has played one good quarter and seven bad ones. While Wentz is 47-46-1 in his career as a starter and finished third in MVP voting as a Philadelphia Eagle in 2017, the year they won the Super Bowl. 

He’s become the butt of jokes in the NFL media, and this is the sixth different team Wentz has started for in the last six seasons. However, Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is a “quarterback whisperer”. Kirk Cousins had the best years of his career playing for him, and O’Connell saved QB Sam Darnold’s career last season. 

After Cousins got hurt in 2023, the Vikings signed QB Joshua Dobbs off the street and beat the Falcons 31-28 as +3.5 underdogs in Atlanta. Dobbs wasn’t in the building long enough to meet all of his teammates, let alone learned O’Connell’s playbook, and was missing WR Justin Jefferson, and they still got a dub. 

Finally, my favorite part about this bet is the market will be on the opposite side. Per Pro Football Focus, roughly 80% of the action is on the Bengals at the time of writing. Wentz is the smelly kid in class no one wants to hang out with, whereas Browning is considered one of the better backups in the league.  

Without Burrow, the Bengals are a fade, especially when they can’t run the ball and their defense bleeds yards. Minnesota, despite its Sunday night debacle, has a better playcaller on both sides of the ball, and its quarterback situation MIGHT improve this week with Wentz. 

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